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DanG
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welcome trogdor !
we really are *just* coming to understand the Gulf Stream and
its importance... but yes - it does seem to be faltering.
peace,
DanG
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DanG
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Agreed !! make mine a Killians ! |
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Indy
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I am partial to a Danish beer called Carlsberg :-)
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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MattN
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Temp at that bouy back up to 50F this morning....
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44011
Looks like it went from 45.9F to 50F in 1 hour. |
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hanavrin
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Indy Waddington is about 40 km from me about 40k inland in Lancashire, north west England.
Last night it was reported on BBC weather that the temps could drop to -1 during the night & the weather forecaster skipped over it like it was completely natural to be -1 & frosty near the start of June
We have gone from the hottest April ever to possibly the coldest May.
I do not think for a minute it will take 20 years but when the scientists say 50-100 years ,first I laugh  ,then when I have composed myself , I always halve the lowest estimate then take another 20% off for a more realistic timeframe |
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DanG
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5 years - IF we're lucky. |
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FatalWishes
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2007+5 = 2012
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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Weaseldog
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Glasgow seems warm enough now.
http://uk.weather.com/weather/local/UKXX0061?from=smartlinks |
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DanG
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Hey - don't Make Me get all Tin-foil on ya ! |
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MattN
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15C = 59F. Warm enough? For June? (OK I know June starts in 2 days, but still...). Is that normal? |
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snowforceone
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http://uk.weather.com/weathe...y/UKXX0061.htm?dayofyear=145
slightly below average - but nothing out of the ordinary. We'll need to see the current situation (no pun intended) maintained for another couple of weeks to really impact on the Sea Temps (since they started from a high base). If that happens temperatures over W Europe would start to be impacted. |
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Weaseldog
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Here in North Central Texas, its 65f or 18.3C, the day before June. This is definitely below normal. |
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MattN
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You've sent all your heat to the South. 90F, bright sun, dry as a bone.... |
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Indy
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Attention Visitors
If you are visiting from Europe I would love to hear your views on this subject. Please share your weather stories from the past week. How bad has this cold been in your area? Do you see reports on tv or read reports in the local papers about problems with the gulf stream/Atlantic current?
Your comments are greatly appreciated.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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Indy
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References to previous gulf stream failures. First discovery was November 2004.
Atlantic Current Halted in 2004
First Source: http://environment.guardian....nge/story/0,,1932761,00.html
| Quote From Source: |
Most alarmingly, the data reveal that a part of the current, which is usually 60 times more powerful than the Amazon river, came to a temporary halt during November 2004.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
This story was also reported here...
Second Source: http://www.smh.com.au/news/w...006/10/27/1161749315591.html
I believe there was also an occurrence in 2006. Still trying to find additional information. But in any case this wasn't the first time in recent years that this has happened. Remember the current halted for 10 days in late 2004. The Guardian in the UK didn't even report this until Oct 27 of 2006. The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia didn't report it until Oct 28 of 2006.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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DanG
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What is the thermohaline circulation (THC)?
info post ....
| Quote From Source: | As opposed to wind-driven currents and tides (which are due to the gravity of moon and sun), the thermohaline circulation (Fig. 1) is that part of the ocean circulation which is driven by density differences. Sea water density depends on temperature and salinity, hence the name thermo-haline. The salinity and temperature differences arise from heating/cooling at the sea surface and from the surface freshwater fluxes (evaporation and sea ice formation enhance salinity; precipitation, runoff and ice-melt decrease salinity).
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/thc_fact_sheet.html
DanG has attached this image:
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DanG
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Sea water density depends on temperature and salinity...
and the Canadian / Greenland melt is pumping huge amounts of
Cold - Fresh water into the North Atlantic.
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Kate
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Gulf Stream
Hi. This is my first post here, but I have been reading things on this site and others for probably a year or so. Like many of you here, I am convinced we are in interesting times.
I wanted to comment on the media not covering the Gulf Stream disruption.
I think the thing to do is to be aggressive in asking for coverage. E-mail journalists who have written stories on this topic before and tell them your observations and direct them to this website or others. It's likely they are not following this topic as closely as you are and unless someone brings it to their attention, it will pass unnoticed.
Also, see the url below for information on scientists who are skeptical of the Gulf Stream providing warming. I am not sure what I think of this, but thought I would point out that there isn't universal agreement on the Gulf Stream's role in climate.
http://www.worldclimaterepor...urning-the-gulf-stream-myth/
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DanG
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glad to hear from you Kate, thanks for the post! |
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Indy
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Hey Kate. Glad to have you here. I was reading the article and there are some comments I want to make.
1) I put no faith in anything that Gore says.
2) I in no way believe things will unfold as portrayed in The Day After Tomorrow. It was after all just a movie.
3) Maybe I am reading the article wrong but there is proof to support the operation of the Gulf Stream. There is data collected from buoys, ships, subs and satellites.
There isn't a big data set going back thousands of years to say what the current looked like at that time but the flow of the current now can be watched closely. I don't think the currents around the world will just stop. At least not for anything longer than maybe a few days or a week. I think the most likely scenario will be a change in where the currents flow.
One thing people should know by now is that the oceans rule all. Just look at what el nino does to the planet. A strong el nino can cause major climate disruptions. Why wouldn't a disruption in the Gulf Stream? It is without a doubt a huge player when it comes to Europe.
But in any case I think we shall see sooner rather than later.
BTW when you post links on here you don't have to use the url tag. The forum will automatically recognize the link.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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FatalWishes
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| Quoting Kate - posted on 5/30/2007 at 21:22 |
Hi. This is my first post here, but I have been reading things on this site and others for probably a year or so. Like many of you here, I am convinced we are in interesting times.
I wanted to comment on the media not covering the Gulf Stream disruption.
I think the thing to do is to be aggressive in asking for coverage. E-mail journalists who have written stories on this topic before and tell them your observations and direct them to this website or others. It's likely they are not following this topic as closely as you are and unless someone brings it to their attention, it will pass unnoticed.
Also, see the url below for information on scientists who are skeptical of the Gulf Stream providing warming. I am not sure what I think of this, but thought I would point out that there isn't universal agreement on the Gulf Stream's role in climate.
http://www.worldclimaterepor...urning-the-gulf-stream-myth/
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Hi Kate. Lets look at this on a global scale. If you take Calgary Canada and London England they are on the same 51 degree latitude. Calgary has an avg yearly temp of 37 degrees. But London is always warmer at 55 degrees...why? The North Atlantic conveyor brings warmer water up from the tropics to the north keeping London warm???
Here we have two major cities the same distance from the equator yet two different climates. So lets go with the theory that the North Atlantic conveyor does not keep London warmer. Is there a pacific conveyor keeping Calgary Canada cooler? What is it about these two cities that are on the exact same latitude that gives them a different climate?
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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Avastar
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Well, if todays Sat thermal map is an indicator, it looks like the G.S. is starting up again. But, there seems no doubt that is was down, or at best running on "low" for the last few weeks. Even AccuWeather (which I believe pretty conservative) made mention of cold water out over the Gulf Stream [although I had to look hard and finally found it on the Canadian page]. Scroll down to the part about Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/...traveler=0&blog=anderson
Anyway, here is todays (5/30/07) Atlantic Surface Temps:
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/bb/6suxpm5x6xtdoyf8z4q5azgmzhx5k393.jpg[/bad img] |
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Indy
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I would agree about it starting up again. It looks completely different than it did a month ago.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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snowforceone
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Okay another view from Europe. 
Firstly there is only occasional mention in the press over here regarding a slowdown or shutdown of the North Atlantic Drift. My understanding is that the Gulf Stream flowing from Florida to the Eastern Atlantic won't shut down, although it could slow down and be redirected. The North Atlantic drift which is basically the northern arm of the GS as it splits on the E Atlantic could shut down - and it's this part that can make all the difference. The younger dryas period is one occasion where it's believed to have shut down for around 1000 years.
If we lost the NAD at this time the effect would be major since in winter the sea is likely to freeze between Scandinavia and Iceland to the North of the UK (down the North Sea too). On the other side of the atlantic the sea would freeze further South and substantially further East out into the Atlantic. Sea Ice insulates the air above from the relatively warm Sea beneath - allowing the air to cool further than it would otherwise. The result is that colder air masses would be able to develop over the Canadian maritime (and interior) and these air masses would bring snow to W Europe during Winter due to the reduced sea crossing (more ice) and colder source (at the moment a westerly wind brings rain to W Europe 99% of the time). Summers would also cool due to reduced Sea Surface Temperatures and increased solar energy required to melt laying snow during the Spring (it's quite possible that Scotland and Scandinavia would in fact start to glaciate - as might the Hudson Bay area).
There are other feedback effects though - the cooler waters on the E Atlantic and ice pack would force the jet stream further South making Easterly winds from Russia more common during Winter - and of course there would be a huge increase in the earth's albedo triggering a further drop in temperature. Additionally cooler air holds less water vapour, the biggest greenhouse gas, so it would reduce the effect of any greenhouse warming. Furthermore cooler seas will absorb more CO2 (hence CO tends to lag climatic change in past records).
Anyone that seriously believes a shut-down in the NAD wouldn't have an impact is living in cloud cuckoo land - even the Hadley centre in the UK (one of the main pushers of climate change) believe a shutdown would have big impacts should it occur within the next 30 years (set against their models showing warming).
The other possibility is a gentle slowdown in the current - which might be outweighed by climate change from Greenhouse gases (assuming that is the reason we are currently warming).
My own view is that chaotic systems rarely simply slowdown a little bit, but funnily enough tend to react 'chaotically' - so I would say a shutdown or dramatic slowdown are more likely - but predicting when is anyone's guess. The more it stutters though the more worries we ought to be.
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DanG
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great post snowforceone - thanks! |
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posted on 5/29/2007 at 16:26
