DanG
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Abrupt Climate Change Scenario --- from the Pentagon report - 2004
some key points ...
| Quote From Source: |
Because changes have been gradual so far, and are projected to be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of global warming have the potential to be manageable for most nations. Recent research, however, suggests that there is a
possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean's thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world's food production. With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth's environment.
Paleoclimatic evidence suggests that altered climatic patterns could last for as much as a century, as they did when the ocean conveyor collapsed 8,200 years ago, or, at the extreme, could last as long as 1,000 years as they did during the
Younger Dryas, which began about 12,700 years ago.
In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100- year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions:
· Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asia and North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe
· Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in key areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.
· Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and eastern North America.
· Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes.
Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.
There are some indications today that global warming has reached the threshold where the thermohaline circulation could start to be significantly impacted. These indications include observations documenting that the North Atlantic is increasingly
being freshened by melting glaciers, increased precipitation, and fresh water runoff making it substantially less salty over the past 40 years.
This report suggests that, because of the potentially dire consequences, the risk of abrupt climate change, although uncertain and quite possibly small, should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a U.S. national security concern. ...
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
these are just a few of the points from the Pentagon report.
they chose the shorter time of ~ 100 years, in all honestly,
our 21st century society will not survive the ~ 1000 year freeze,
and I'm not 100% certain of the 100 year model.
I have the pdf if anyone would like it, also I've extracted the
text to a .doc file.
Remember - this report was issued three years ago.
peace,
DanG
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DanG
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Indy
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That document exists somewhere on this site lol. I just don't remember where. 
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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FatalWishes
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Yeah remember reading it because we were making fun of how they shortened to 35 years from 100. Seems like its going on today...maybe they meant 35 days 
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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DanG
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repeat after me --
Greenland Glaciers
Greenland Glaciers
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DanG
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more info ... from dot gov
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/
Estimated potential maximum sea-level rise from the total melting of present-day glaciers.
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DanG
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same source
Red shows areas along the Gulf Coast and East Coast of the United States that would be flooded by a 10-meter rise in sea level. Population figures for 1996 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, unpublished data, 1998) indicate that a 10-meter rise in sea level would flood approximately 25 percent of the Nation's population.
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DanG
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The Greenland melt is doubly important
if it happens slowly, it will cause a fault or stall(!) of the Atlantic Current.
if it happens quickly, it could (by itself!) cause a sea level rise of over 20 FT.
and of course a sudden slide into the sea would cause a world-wide tsunami...
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Indy
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The numbers are for a TOTAL melt which will never happen. I doubt we even come close. Just my opinion though. We'll never live long enough to know. I doubt our children live long enough to know either. Or even their children.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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DanG
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I sir do not have such a rosey view.
and in a relativly short time we'll have a better idea.
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Avastar
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I do like the number 2012 ... just something nice and comforting about it ...
Five years at the current rate of change ...  ... I'd bet Mom has a milestone year. |
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DanG
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posted on 7/23/2007 at 09:21
