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MountainManMike
Elite Member
Posts: 927
Registered: 11/7/2007
Location: Durango, CO
Member Is Offline
Points: 15610
Mood: always tired
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the durango winter of 2007-2008
here is a link to some pics i took. sorry it took so long for me to get them online.
http://www.facebook.com/albu...l=bc6b3&id=674651255 |
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MountainManMike
Elite Member
Posts: 927
Registered: 11/7/2007
Location: Durango, CO
Member Is Offline
Points: 15610
Mood: always tired
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did i mention that we hadnt seen a winter like this since the 1970's? |
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Aerology
Beginner
Posts: 60
Registered: 5/28/2008
Location: North Central Kansas
Member Is Offline
Points: 600
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Did I mention the predictor years I use in my analog forecast, are 1953, 1971, and 1989 for 2008 almost same date?
To get a more detailed outlook from my web site after entering user name Kstate
and password Maps08
choose local forecast, enter zip code and it will give you a 250 mile zoomed in map with greater detail than the National maps....
http://www.aerology.com
The precipitations will be the composite of the predictor years all shown together, and the temps will be an average of the three with about a month time lag behind the real seasonal norms. So spring will forecast cooler till mid summer, summer will forecast warmer, longer than actual...Damn 18.6 year cycle, never could just be an even number of years could it, I guess that's why nobody found it.... |
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Aerology
Beginner
Posts: 60
Registered: 5/28/2008
Location: North Central Kansas
Member Is Offline
Points: 600
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my home made forecast.....
(this below is one of my recent posts on myspace meteorological forum....)
The Sun would have a large toroid shaped magnetic field, smoothly spherical and evenly distributed IF it did not have planets with magnetically conductive cores.
The sun's magnetic fields in actuality are far from smooth, there are lines of magnetic coupling thru each of the planets that extend out from the sun and as they Synodically pass each other, these field lines interact via the plasma flows of the solar winds.
Each of the planets are homo polar generators in of themselves, as they rotate in the magnetic fields of the sun they generate standing static charges Positive at their equators, and Negative at the poles.
The total power generated by the constant rotating of the Earth results in a standing charge of about 100 volts per meter, measured in either a North to South direction or in elevation. This is the static state, given that there is no change in the angular momentum of the Earth or change in the strength of the Solar magnetic fields felt by the Earth.
The Magnetospheres of the planets are the demarcation of the interaction of the solar wind's varying flux and the standing fields of the planet, and is the dynamic interface between the planet and the interplanetary magnetic fields, that are carried by flows in the strength and density of the ions in the highly conductive plasma, that is the solar wind.
When [planets] electromagnetic conductors (due to having ferro magnetic elements, Iron, nickel, etc..) line up, the field strength couples thru the planetary body, and its magnetosphere interface, temporarily increasing the total strength of the felt forces on the angler momentum / standing charge of the static fields of the planet.
Changing the total power in the system entails either changing the angular momentum or the standing voltage, or some of both as the real case turns out. In your car's generator / alternator the metal core rotates in a magnetic field, additional winding act as a auto transformer increasing the voltage generated up to a usable value. As the RPM of the engine changes the output voltage changes, but due to the electrical system and battery loading the net output is a change of the current output.
In the case of the Earth, meeting the about 30 degree wide conductive swaths of ion streams trapped in the fields lines of the outer planets coupling to the sun at a Synodic passing, takes the earth about a month to cross, much like fording a stream of water. Beginning with a gradual increase of magnet coupling and peaking at the point of heliocentric alignment, the decreasing again until out of the stream flow.
The net result of the changes in these forces is felt on the Earth as a change in the standing pole to equator field by as much as 20% of the value of the normal static voltage field. The gases in the lower atmosphere are affected by the change and become more ionized, moisture laden air masses move off of the ITCZ toward the mid latitudes both North and South, as the polar air takes on a more negative charge.
Thus producing surges in the maridial flow for the two weeks up to the point of the maximum alignment of the magnetic coupling, then these charges begin dropping and result in spectacular displays of atmospheric weather displays, as the ionic potential discharges back toward normal via precipitation generation enhancement across the frontal boundarys, and lightning discharges the residual air to ground static gradient.
Page 2
These charge / discharge effects from the planets magnetic interactions, progress thru the calendar Neptune about three days later each year, Uranus about seven days, Jupiter about 37 to 38 days, Saturn about 13 to 14 days. So their effects are almost seasonal for some for several years (Neptune and Uranus) in a row, then move into the next season for several years.
The seasonal shifts caused by the faster planets Jupiter and Saturn slide thru the years and the common reference to their effects, (although not recognized as such) are decadal oscillations of the Pacific or the Atlantic basin circulation patterns.
Modulated on top of these slow frequency pulses are Lunar declinational tidal pulses in the atmosphere, as the Moon goes from Maximum North to Maximum South, and back to Max North in 27.32 day cycles there are produced surges in the meridial flows coming off of the ITCZ into the mid latitudes and being met by polar air masses to make a composite tidal bulge, as the moon goes to culmination at Max North or South declination.
There is four fold pattern in the type of sinusoidal waves generated in the atmosphere, (Commonly called Rossby Waves) shaped by the flows generated by the lunar tides and the topography, running thru the center of these patterns are the frontal boundaries between the air masses, where the contrast in temperatures, dew point, and ionic charges (the attracting forces) push the meeting line into a ridge, commonly called the Jet streams.
Knowing the driving forces of these separate, Lunar tidal, and Planetary ionic charge, patterns, it is a simple matter to figure the composite patterns generated, would have effects that could be seen in the historic data bases. I have been searching for years to find the relationships between the cyclic patterns that could be used as a Natural Analog Forecast, that would take advantage of the patterns to form a forecast for the next cyclic repeat of the complex pattern if a good synchronization could be found to apply to the data base.
The Rossby waves take four cycles of 27.32 days to circle the Earth, and play out the same type pattern in the same area again~109 days. Seasonal shifts have taken place the frontal boundaries are displaced North or South by the seasonal solar tide in the atmosphere. So it was imperative that I find a time period that would synchronize as many of minor cycles as possible.
I looked at a period of 38 years ago the same date, as a starting point, two Metonic cycles of 19 years, and keeps the 18.6 Year MN cycle of lunar declination close to the current values, but the four fold pattern of the Rossby waves were out a phase by half a cycle, This sorting method left the data seasonally centered, but I found by looking at the forecasts it generated that Nature does not really care what the date is, the warmth of Spring comes when the right pattern of lunar declination cycle occurs closest to the solar crossing of the Equator.
Scrapped that idea, and tried 13,550 days (or 37 years and 36 days ago) as a center reference, and 6558 days either side of that date, to synchronize the past three cycles of raw data together. The average of the Temperatures, and the maximum 24 hour precipitation totals, is what I am currently posting on my web site.
This sets the four fold pattern of the Rossby waves in phase so the cycles with (zonal flow periods in from the west coast)[one of the four repeating patterns] all come in phase in the combined data, so that pattern is conserved. The included Lunar declinational angle, is with a degree or so of the same for all three cycles and the present forecast one, so the extremes are in phase.
But the forecast daily High and Low temperatures, are time shifted off, and lag by a month, behind actuals, this could be fixed in the final product by adjusting the forecast by the amount the seasonal average temperatures are different from the month time laged date's normal averages. In the middle of winter and summer they work fine but the seasonal shifts in spring and fall are still time lagged a month.
I considered this a fixable problem and a good trade off to get the precipitation patterns as right as I could, at any cost. That at least seems to have worked well. |
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posted on 6/1/2008 at 03:43
