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Avastar
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Northwest Passage Opens Early - 2007 record may be broken
Well, you all can argue about the new Ice Age all you want, but it's not going to happen until after the Arctic Ice Cap melts. And we're on track to see a worse melt than last year. My read on this is about, oh, say 20% loss in 30 days?
Wait until the papers get a hold of this, huh?
This is the satellite view 7/4/08:
Original Image: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu
This is the satellite view yesterday 8/3/08:
Original Image: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu
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Indy
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Question is whether it is melt or evaporation. You can and do lose ice & snow with temps far below freezing. Those pics don't tell the story. Though the press will run with it and report opinion as fact. It is more about precipitation and less about temperature.
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MattN
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There is, at this very moment, approximately 900,000km^2 MORE ice in the Arctic than this exact same time last year. |
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Avastar
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LOL ... Indy, I don't think Mister Albedo cares one way or another. Looks like we've hit the tipping point. No, really ...
End game.
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MattN
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How can we be at a tipping point when there's 900,000 km^2 MORE ice?!? |
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Avastar
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LOL ... ah Matt, my friend ... it's all less that an couple feet thick. It won't matter in a couple months ... don't get so upset ... you'll see very soon.
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MattN
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I don't get it. Everyone's saying the 1st year ice won't survive and 2008 will no doubt exceed 2007 melt. And so far, those predictions have been completely 100% wrong.
Original Image: img178.imageshack.us
There's currently more ice in the Arctic than any year since 2004.
There's nothing wrong with the ice. Situation normal. Return to your homes..... |
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Avastar
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| Quote: |
There's nothing wrong with the ice. Situation normal. Return to your homes.....
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LOL ... OMG .. you really DO work for the government! The Northwest passage is OPEN for business ... and you say go home? You crack me up!
Matt, I have a hundred dollars ready, willing and able ... wanna bet? 
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DanG
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oooOOOOoooo - cool.
I love it!
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Indy
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We need to come up with a funny video to put on youtube. Call it maybe The Earth Is Fucked TV.
Pardon my French.
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MountainManMike
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what r we betting and how bout we make it a grand? |
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MattN
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What's the bet? |
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DanG
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oh - this is getting goood
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Avastar
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The curve heads south
Empirical data coming in now ... we should break through last years extent within a week. The water temp is too warm to hold onto that thin ice from last winter. Sorry to deliver the bad news early ... but as I said, the media is going to go wild as soon as the story breaks.
Take a look at the sea temp anomaly map; it's 4C above normal: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PS.../data/anomnight.8.7.2008.gif
And yes, I will bet $100 we exceed last year's record melt.
Original Image: nsidc.org
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Indy
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I'm not worried about it. Look at where the 2008 line is. Pretty close to the middle between the 20 year (tiny number) average and 2007. Gee I wonder why only a 20 year average? Maybe because a longer average doesn't make the chart look all that impressive? Who could possibly use a 20 year average and make a big deal of something? That window is just too small to be of any value.
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| Quote: | Gee I wonder why only a 20 year average?
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Indy, that's because we didn't have satellite coverage before 1979. All the data before-hand was by surface observation only ... and hardly compatible with the current level of detail. Sure, we all wish we had better data. But, the facts speak for themselves ... we will exceed last year's record minimum ice extent. That means whatever is causing the situation is getting worse. And for every day we have a nice dark blue ocean up there absorbing sunlight, the water temp will continue to climb.
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Indy
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How can you say we will exceed it when we are already well behind last year?
And this is nothing special since we know from historical observations that the passage has opened before. We also know that Greenland was farm land at one time. This in reality is a whole lot about nothing. These conditions come and go. It is no big deal.
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Indy
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Here is another image that shows sea ice extent.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu...a.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg
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MountainManMike
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no biggy in my mind. |
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Meltdown in the Arctic is speeds up
| Quote From Source: | Scientists warn that the North Pole could be free of ice in just five years' time instead of 60.
Ice at the North Pole melted at an unprecedented rate last week, with leading scientists warning that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by 2013.
Satellite images show that ice cap started to disintegrate dramatically several days ago as storms over Alaska's Beaufort Sea began sucking streams of warm air into the Arctic.
As a result, scientists say that the disappearance of sea ice at the North Pole could exceed last year's record loss. More than a million square kilometres melted over the summer of 2007 as global warming tightened its grip on the Arctic. But such destruction could now be matched, or even topped, this year.
'It is a neck-and-neck race between 2007 and this year over the issue of ice loss,' said Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado. 'We thought Arctic ice cover might recover after last year's unprecedented melting - and indeed the picture didn't look too bad last month. Cover was significantly below normal, but at least it was up on last year.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Full Story: http://www.guardian.co.uk/en.../aug/10/climatechange.arctic
Original Image: nsidc.org
Original Image: nsidc.org
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Indy
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I don't know about you guys but 2008 looks to be holding steady ahead of 2007.
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MountainManMike
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i agree indy |
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Avastar
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Ok, let me try to make this a little more simple for you guys:
It's the "Rate of Change" that is the issue here. Take a close look at the chart ... see the angle of the blue line? Can you see the rate of change? What is melting so rapidly is the thin, new ice from last winter. At this time last year the dashed line was already starting to slow down and flatten off. This year the RATE at which the melt is occurring is staggering. Both curves, the 1979-2000 Average, and 2007 record, were beginning to flatten out in August; this year it's still sinking like a rock. By simple extrapolation, this year's melt volume (the blue line) will exceed last years (the dashed line) within 10 days.
At this rate, ALL of the new ice from last winter will melt before the end of September. And short of the Gulf Stream shutting down, the odds of the Arctic being able to recover from this anytime soon do not look good. It will now get worse every year.
Original Image: nsidc.org
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Indy
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It is still minor. In 2007 the big drop happened early in the summer season when there was a great deal of time for melt. You are still looking at a difference of about 750,000 square km between 2008 and 2007.
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MattN
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Indy's right. Still a big, big gap between '08 and '07, and the melt season is about to end.
So far the predictions have not come true. 2008 will not exceed 2007 melt, and the North Pole will not be ice-free. Much to the alarmists' chagrin... |
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posted on 8/4/2008 at 19:06
