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MountainManMike
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and too bad cuz i surely wanted to be the first guy to water ski across the arctic ocean...now, those dreams r crushed, lol. |
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DanG
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Climate Change is all around us... maybe a bit of 'alarm' is in order.
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Avastar
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Melting Beaufort Sea busy this summer
| Quote From Source: | Canada's latest bid to assert sovereignty in the Arctic - a sea floor mapping mission in the Beaufort Sea - got under way Thursday amid unprecedented activity in the melting polar ocean, where icebreakers from China, Japan, Germany and the U.S. are currently cruising waters off Canada's northern coast to gather geological data and conduct climate research.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=740239
| Quote From Source: | BARROW, Alaska (AP) — Rapidly melting ice on Alaska's Arctic is opening up a new navigable ocean in the extreme north, allowing oil tankers, fishing vessels and even cruise ships to venture into a realm once trolled mostly by indigenous hunters.
The Coast Guard expects so much traffic that it opened two temporary stations on the nation's northernmost waters, anticipating the day when an ocean the size of the contiguous United States could be ice-free for most of the summer.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
http://ap.google.com/article...EbHvVGPnieZjDNbhE6wD92MSJA80
"Mother Nature is going to kick our ass" |
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Indy
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Funny thing is that it will cut down on the amount of fuel ships have to use and in result actually be better for the environment.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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MountainManMike
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anyone ever think that maybe we should stop sending these ice breakers up there to study the ice? hmm...the ice is melting supposedly and we send ships that break the ice into pieces up to study this horrible atrocity...lol. |
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Indy
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I had posted a long time ago that I wondered what impact ice breakers had. They disrupt the ice pack and allow it to drift away from the colder north. What would happen to the sea ice if that practice was halted?
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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Avastar
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Polar Bears stranded 60 miles at sea as Ice melts under them
| Quote From Source: | Edmonton Journal
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Nine polar bears found swimming 20 to 100 kilometers off the northwest coast of Alaska last week represent another sign that the rapid retreat of ice in the Arctic is forcing bears to make dangerous, long-distance swims to get to land or ice, scientists and environmentalists say.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
http://www.canada.com/calgar...-ad8b-4c7a-abe8-5ecafe349e22
Original Image: nsidc.org
"Mother Nature is going to kick our ass" |
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MountainManMike
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wow, natural selection right before our eyes.
avastar...as long as that blue line is above that dotted line, reposting that graph is only hurting ur cause. |
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MattN
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An updated graph that wasn't 2 weeks old (at least) would help:
Original Image: img161.imageshack.us
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Indy
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Matt... it looks clear to me that 2008 is going to maintain that nice margin over 2007. The end of the melt season is about here.
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Avastar
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Matt, can you tell us where that chart came from? Looks like the data source is clearly different, NSIDC (National Snow & Ice Data Center - University of Colorado) http://nsidc.org shows today's gap between 2007 and 2008 being about 500,000 sq km, vs. yours indicates about 1,000,000 sq km.
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Indy
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Thanks for asking that Avastar. I meant to ask where the chart came from and in my current decaffeinated state I forgot.
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Avastar
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Perspective
Here's my argument: See all the "green" ice in this false color image? That is sea ice at the ~50% concentration level. Meaning it's half ice, half open water. Not solid - not walk across type ice ... but small blocks and slush. MY POINT: we still have 3 weeks left in the season ... plenty of time for all of that pretty "green" area to melt away ... leaving us at nearly the same level as last year. And, the SLOPE of the melt curve this year indicates we are not done yet (it's melting at 28,000 sq km per day.)
Look, it is NOT whether or not we see this year's meltdown actually EXCEED last years numbers. One year of radical melting can be viewed at as a fluke ... but, TWO years in row ... and science must see the data as a TREND.
Original Image: arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu
Finally ... here is the REAL picture to be looking at ... not just the 5 year graph.
http://nsidc.org/sotc/sea_ice.html
Original Image: nsidc.org
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Indy
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There is no real picture because prior to the last 30 years or so there was no monitoring of sea ice. Do you remember the story from the 1930's (I think that was the year) where it was reported that the pass was free of ice? That doesn't seem to be in the chart you posted. So how did the creator of that chart come up with the numbers? I'm guessing they were made up based on what the person thought the ice should be at the time given the global temperatures. So anything older than 30 years basically has just been made up.
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Avastar
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| Quote: | So anything older than 30 years basically has just been made up.
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Indy, as the owner and moderator of this forum I respect that you have your opinions and your beliefs. But to arbitrarily state that such university level research was "made up" shocks me. What's next ... will you state that the satellite imagery is being photoshoped?
Simply because we don't WANT to believe something is real, doesn't mean it isn't. Unless you can provide evidence to the contrary, we as the members of this forum expect that such opinions be stated AS opinions, and not as fact.
Here is the evidence of Sea Ice measurements going back to 1850's.
http://acsys.npolar.no/meeti.../Session_2/poster_s2_092.pdf
http://www.aad.gov.au/%5CMed...6289351852_22IceCoreAAD6.pdf
http://www3.interscience.wil...stract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0
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MattN
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| Quote: | Matt, can you tell us where that chart came from? Looks like the data source is clearly different, NSIDC (National Snow & Ice Data Center - University of Colorado) http://nsidc.org shows today's gap between 2007 and 2008 being about 500,000 sq km, vs. yours indicates about 1,000,000 sq km.
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The graph I posted shows the difference between 2207 and 2008 is currently ~600,000 km^2. Look closer at the scale on the left.
:shrug:
BTW, why did your graph stop at 2007 and not include the very nice rebound to near-normal level of ice level earlier this year? |
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MattN
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Just noticed. Avastar's graph from NSIDC correlates *perfectly* with the PDO shift in the late 70s. Absolutely perfectly... |
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Avastar
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Arctic Melt Accelerates
In the past 5 days (Aug 21-26) the rate of the Arctic Ice Melt has doubled to 70,000 sq km per day. As of today, Aug 26, we are less than 250,000 sq km from the 2007 record for this date. At this rate of decline, we will exceed the 2007 record in just 4 more days.
For you football fans, let me make this analogy: this is first and ten at the goal line.
Original Image: inlinethumb60.webshots.com
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice...aily_images/N_timeseries.png
More images:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice...aily_concentration_hires.png
http://science.natice.noaa.gov/icImages/cv_08239_n_12z.png
"Mother Nature is going to kick our ass" |
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chrisisasavage
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It's amazing what volcanic activity can do to ice. |
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chrisisasavage
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I'm not trying to minimize what the reduced sea-ice could mean to our climate, but I'm inclined to think that volcanoes have something to do with it. |
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Indy
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If there wasn't a satellite to monitor the ice extent then how do they know the extent of the ice going back to 1950? And yes they do make things up. Just look at Hansen. I was reading about his temperature adjustments to surface stations. The adjustments seemed almost arbitrary.
It is just like with old sunspot data. How can you trust old data when we didn't have the tools back then to monitor the sun the way we do today?
We cannot trust old ice reports or any report that references data from those old reports. We can verify the data in satellite images. Rebuilds based on ship logs have to be taken with a grain of salt. Only thing we know of for certain is the accuracy int the last 30 years. And you cannot compare results collected under one system with results compiled from another set of data that would have been seriously full of holes. They are apples and oranges.
Garbage In/Garbage Out
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Avastar
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Indy, thank you for you insightful reply ...
I won't be posting here any further, nor will I continue to monitor this site in future ... so I won't be upsetting your cosmology.
I wish you all the best of luck ... take care.
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DanG
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well crap - I enjoyed these threads |
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FatalWishes
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Yeah, nice Job Indy 
I didn't post once in this thread until now, so Its not my fault.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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MattN
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I have found the answer:
Original Image: img524.imageshack.us
What you are looking at is the reduction in ice extent vs. the reduction in ice area. As you can see, ice area (blue line) has just about stopped falling, meaning the melting is rapidly coming to a close. The ice extent (green line), however, is still falling, and rapidly on occasion, due to ice compaction likely from wind and ocean currents.
Summary: the melting is just about done. The ice is compacting itself, and that explains the reduction in extent. |
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posted on 8/19/2008 at 21:11
