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FatalWishes
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Well the dollar hit a new record, Low one that is.
http://www.bloomberg.com/app...ihZD4Ueo&refer=worldwide
Gold should increase nicely today. Yup. up $11.60 to $985.30. That means my two favorite stocks right now ABX and GG should be soaring.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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Analyst warns on Wachovia amid more bank worries
| Quote From Source: | Analyst calls situation bleak for Wachovia as jitters about the banking system continue
NEW YORK (AP) -- The situation is increasingly bleak for Wachovia Corp. and the bank's mortgage portfolio will continue to lose value, "seriously jeopardizing" the company's ability to generate earnings, an influential analyst warned on Tuesday.
The latest note of caution came as the government moved to reassure people their money is safe in the nation's banks. Yet fears about the system persisted and financial shares plunged in premarket trading Tuesday, signaling another tough day for the stock market.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to brief Congress Tuesday on the economy, which has been walloped by high energy prices and fallout from the housing slump and credit crunch. The testimony also comes amid a backdrop of rising oil prices and a slumping dollar, and as stock markets overseas tumble amid worries about the U.S. financial system.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Biz.Yahoo.com
Source URL:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080715/banks.html
Christ Wachovia (WB $8.50) too???? Guess I'll add them to the list. They still show a positive EPS so I over looked them and did no DD on them. I see now that earnings futures are pretty bleak. -14 eps. Not good but I wonder if they think they won't recover from that? Gawd whens it all going to end?? Oh wait, this is only the second wave of write downs. We have 1 more to go after this!!
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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Bank United (BKUNA )
Current stock price,.40 52wk High $22
Washington Mutual
Current stock price, $3.78 52wk high $44.04 (This bank is huge and just asset wise it is worth $16.00 a share. It could still fail, but we would have to be heading to the apocalypse and by that time we would have bigger issues than worrying about this bank failing)
Downey Financial (DSL)
Current stock price, 1.39 52 wk High $69.49
__________________________________________
Indy Mac Bank (OTC: IDMC.PK) FAILED/DONE
Current stock price, .12 52 wk High $31.32
First one to go off my list. Who is next???
___________________________________________
National City Corp (NCC)
Current stock price, 3.53 52 wk High $33.54
Fannie Mae (FNM)
Current stock price, 7.94 52 wk High $70.57
Freddie Mac (FRE)
Current stock price, 5.88 52 wk High $67.20
First Horizon National (FHN)
Current stock price, 6.05 52 wk High $39.03
Lehman Bros (LEH) Brokerage, not a bank but important
Current stock price, 13.80 52 wk High $74.09
Firstfed CP (FED)
Current stock price, 4.70 52 wk High $59.10
Franklin Finance CP (FBTX)
Current stock price, .42 52 wk High $14.39
Merrill Lynch (MER)
Current stock price, 26.03 52 wk High $89.23 (Note, Not sure if MER will fail, but their EPS is -14.23 and they are dropping fast. They report earnings on Thursday. This will be a key indicator to watch. That is the reason it is on the list.)
Wachovia Corporation (WB)
Current stock price, 9.83 52 wk High $53.10
Citigroup Inc. (C)
Current stock price, 15.33 52 wk High $52.97 (Just wanted to track this one. They are not going anywhere...I don't think. That trillion dollar asset story has me confused on this one.
Last updated July 15, 2008, 2:00 pm CST. There are some pretty weak looking banks out there.
Just a side note, I take a personal interest in Washington Mutual because that is where I have been banking for 20 something years. I still bank there and have no plans to move...yet. If I do, I will go to Wells Fargo.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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Indy
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I don't see any reason why the markets should reverse course in a significant way anytime soon. I don't think we are even close to pulling out of this. Our economy is a disaster. The things that have created this problem are locked in. It isn't like they hit us and the problem has been corrected and now we are just waiting for a recovery. Nothing has been fixed. How would you even go about fixing this mess?
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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FatalWishes
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The VIX went up almost 7.76% today, insane fear selling.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/...p40574660801&a=126579748
Hit as high as 30.81!! That spells a lot of fear. Not quite panic yet, but a lot of fear. Usually the weaker hands dump, today it is more steady and reasonable hands dumping shares. When the VIX gets above 37 that is when we will get our 300-400 pt drop. That will be panic.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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I agree with you Indy, 100%. Polish a turd, it's still a turd.
Nearer My God To Thee
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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FANNIE MAE
(NYSE: FNM)
NEW Real-time: $7.10 Down $2.63 (26.10%) 10:35AM ET
FREDDIE MAC
(NYSE: FRE)
NEW Real-time: $4.90 Down $2.21 (31.08%) 10:35am ET
On July 1 FNM was $19.15 and FRE was $16.13.
In 2 weeks a lot of people have lost a lot of money. The shorts and Puts are raking in all that dough. Millions and millions of dollars on these two stocks. Almost 1/2 BILLION shares were traded on Fannie Mae alone yesterday and 400 million alone on Freddie mac. Those two stocks alone equaled almost a billion shares. We have had days were only a couple of billion shares were traded in the entire market. That will tell you what kind of action was going on with these two. Today its just people waiting to sell.
Average shares traded daily are about 30 million each.
Well the pressure has eased a bit. The mass selling wave may be over for the time period. Who knows about the next couple of hours. We were down to 10,829.50.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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| Quoting FatalWishes - posted on 7/15/2008 at 07:34 |
Today is going to suck. We are heading into the 10's today and I can pretty much see that we are going to stay there for a while. At least until we hit the 9k's.  Always time for a reversal though. Bernanke is going to speak and what he has to say will either tank or raise this market. This sucks because nobody knows what to do. We may crawl back into the 11's for that matter.
I feel sorry for Lehman Bros share holders as well as Fannie Mae, and Freddy Mac shareholders. Those stocks are dive bombing. And that 1 trillion phantom thing from Citi shook a lot of people up. Merril Lynch is being dive bombed as well with a -14+ eps it is just looking bad.
We are at the point of no return. Rumors are the greatest and things look the worst. This may be the time to buy. Things could get worse yet though. Wells Fargo (WFC $20.90) and Bank of America are really cheap (BAC $19.33). I'm thinking Washington Mutual may survive all of this and at (WM $3.27) a share it would be a buy of a lifetime. Problem with WM is, they are buried neck deep in California and Florida home loans. Not the good kind either. And I do mean neck deep. Earnings are due next week, we will see then . Washington Mutual is just one huge monster to slay. If they drag that thing down "we're in some real pretty shit now". (Aliens)
"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
~Warren Buffet
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Uh huh...SEE. Always time for a reversal. Never try to guess which way the market is heading. Just learn to stay in step with it. Bernanke must have calmed some nerves. Could be they (The money managers) are shaking the market trying to scare people out before they plunge it to record lows??? Who knows wtf they are doing. The bottom fell out of oil too so stocks are rebounding on that.
Maybe they are trying to shake out the weak hands with frazzled nerves. All I can say is the Bear is out there, he has sharp claws, and boy is he pissed.
Funny thing is, today we could drop 300 points still or go up 300 from here. These are some major scare tactics. Looks as though things are calming down and everybody is taking a deep breath. This morning truly sucked.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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Latest $USD Index. Not much has changed over the last few months. Dollar pretty much sucks.
FatalWishes has attached this image:
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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Wells Fargo Profit Tops Estimates as Insurance Revenue Gains
| Quote From Source: | uly 16 (Bloomberg) -- Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest bank on the U.S. West Coast, reported second-quarter profit that topped analysts' estimates as gains in insurance revenue and credit card fees kept losses from home loans in check.
Net income dropped 23 percent to $1.75 billion, or 53 cents a share, from $2.28 billion, or 67 cents, a year earlier, the San Francisco-based bank said today in a Business Wire statement. The average estimate of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 50 cents.
The worst housing crisis since the Great Depression is hurting Wells Fargo's home state, where foreclosure filings are 2.6 times the national average. While earnings have declined for three straight quarters, Chief Executive Officer John Stumpf has kept the bank profitable even as Citigroup Inc. and Washington Mutual Inc. racked up losses and lenders Countrywide Financial Corp. and IndyMac Bancorp Inc. disappeared.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Bloomberg
Source URL:
http://www.bloomberg.com/app...=aiA5wy_T3udk&refer=home
Well I maintain this stock (WFC) is a great buy at 20.00 a share. There are several really good banks out there that have been slaughtered. This is the one bank Warren Buffet has been buying. Yes he's down 20% for the year as well, but at prices like these it won't be long before he goes up.
This news should give the banks an injection to move up today.
There are some that will keep going down though, like Bank United. I expect them to have a visit from the FDIC soon.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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Bernanke: Fannie, Freddie in no danger of failing
| Quote From Source: | Bernanke says that mortgage giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac in no danger of failing
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Wednesday that troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in "no danger of failing."
The Fed chief made his remarks to the House Financial Services Committee, his second day on Capitol Hill where he briefed lawmakers on the problems plaguing the economy.
Bernanke appeared amid a backdrop of fading confidence in the U.S. financial system and in the national economy.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Yahoo News
Source URL:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080716/bernanke.html
but but but..
I know I read several news articles that said that FRE an FNM may not be solvent...actually one said, "basically NOT solvent".
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/10/business/econ.php
http://www.bloomberg.com/app...=arj7vzSNCI4c&refer=home
And I remember McCain saying they MUST not FAIL!
http://www.bloomberg.com/app...yKESZ2qk&refer=worldwide
So which is it? They can't fail or won't fail? I mean WTF??
Hey at least the market is up. And big too!! Just don't get sucked into them saying we are at a bottom. Every Bear Market has good rallies. This is just one of the many. The Bear is just taking a nap and sleeping off that huge piece of the markets ass it chewed off. He'll wake up hungry and be back.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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Well if anybody had guts to buy some bank stocks today, they were met with a nice surprise. Wells Fargo was up huge. WM is up, hell they are all up. Lehman's was up nice as well.
Between Wells Fargo and Oil dropping, this market went up huge on great volume. Over 7 billion shares traded hands. I have not seen that in a very long time.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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FBI probes possible home-loan fraud at IndyMac
| Quote From Source: | WASHINGTON (AP) - Now-defunct IndyMac Bancorp Inc. is under investigation by the FBI for possible fraud in connection with home loans made to risky borrowers, The Associated Press has learned. It was not immediately clear how long the FBI's probe of the bank has been ongoing.
The investigation is focused on the company—which was taken over last Friday by the FDIC—and not individuals who ran it, a law enforcement official said Wednesday. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the investigation.
IndyMac Bank's assets were seized by federal regulators after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures.
The bank is the largest regulated thrift to fail and the second largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, regulators said.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Breitbart
Source URL:
http://www.breitbart.com/art...D91V68080&show_article=1
Oooh...I hope somebody goes to jail. As many people that have been totally screwed over by this bank, somebody needs to go.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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I cant help but to wonder that some of the rise on these weaker bank shares is "naked" short covering. I cannot imagine people are buying the stock, but in order to cover they have to buy their shares up. I just wonder how many phantom shares there were.
Since the SEC is cracking down on the naked shorting on financials now, its funny to see how absolutely worthless stocks are going up. I'm not a level 2 trader so I cannot see the buy orders coming in but I'm willing to bet there is a ton of short covering going on. I wonder what they are going to do with those worthless phantom shares that are no longer phantom shares since they had to buy them? Seems to me they own a bunch of worthless stock.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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JPMorgan Chase profit falls 53 pct on loan losses
| Quote From Source: | NEW YORK (AP) -- JPMorgan Chase's profit took a 53 percent hit in the second quarter as mortgage and other loan defaults worsened, but the bank's results were better than expected and gave Wall Street a lift.
The bank's shares gained nearly 5 percent in pre-market trading Thursday. Following Wells Fargo & Co.'s stronger-than-expected results released Wednesday, investors appear more confident that the banking sector, while struggling, will be propped up by some of its healthier players.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. earned $2 billion, or 54 cents per share, in the April to June period, down from $4.23 billion, or $1.20 per share, in the same time frame last year. Revenue slipped 3 percent to $18.4 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had predicted, on average, a profit of 44 cents share on $16.6 billion in revenue.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Biz.yahoo
Source URL:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080717/earns_jpmorgan_chase.html
In a normal market this would be horrible news. In this market under these conditions, 53pct profit falls are good. 
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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Merrill Lynch reports $4.9 billion loss
| Quote From Source: | July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., the third- biggest U.S. securities firm, reported a wider-than-forecast quarterly loss as the credit contraction saddled the company with $9.7 billion of writedowns.
Moody's Investors Service cut Merrill's credit rating and the firm's shares fell after it posted the second-quarter net loss of $4.65 billion, or $4.97 a share. The results, which compared with earnings of $2.14 billion a year earlier, were worse than the most pessimistic analyst forecast in a survey by Bloomberg.
Chief Executive Officer John Thain cut about 4,200 jobs in the first half of the year and is divesting assets to stem record losses and a 43 percent drop in Merrill's share price during 2008. The company said it completed a $4.43 billion sale of its stake in Bloomberg LP and plans to sell a controlling interest in Financial Data Services Inc. Merrill's charges from the credit crisis now exceed $46 billion.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source CNN Money
Source URL:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07...x.htm?postversion=2008071716
Call it a hunch, but that little 2 day rally may be over. I think the bear will start stirring and foraging for more market shares to chew on.
Google (GOOG) missed on top of that. I bet it drops -$60.00 on the opening.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080717/earns_google.html?.v=13
This market does not treat bad earnings well.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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MattN
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Not a bad call! Google was down $52.... |
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FatalWishes
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The global economy is at the point of maximum danger
| Quote From Source: | It feels like the summer of 1931. The world's two biggest financial institutions have had a heart attack. The global currency system is breaking down. The policy doctrines that got us into this mess are bankrupt. No world leader seems able to discern the problem, let alone forge a solution.
The International Monetary Fund has abdicated into schizophrenia. It has upgraded its 2008 world forecast from 3.7pc to 4.1pc growth, whilst warning of a "chance of a global recession". Plainly, the IMF cannot or will not offer any useful insights.
Its "mean-reversion" model misses the entire point of this crisis, which is that central banks have pushed debt to fatal levels by holding interest too low for a generation, and now the chickens have come home to roost. True "mean-reversion" would imply debt deflation on such a scale that would, if abrupt, threaten democracy.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Telegraph.uk
Source URL:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/m...ney/2008/07/21/ccview121.xml
I don't get the sense of failure this week like I did last week. Things seem to be much better and some pressure has been releived now that the cat is out of the box on most of this stuff. Apparently Europe is far worse off than we are at this point? Perhaps we have just not gotten to where they are??
Not sure, but things seem to be ok until the next round of writeoffs hit. What this one weakened, the next should kill. Only the truly sound and strong businesses are going to thrive and survive.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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American Express Profit Falls on Higher Defaults
| Quote From Source: | July 21 (Bloomberg) -- American Express Co., the biggest U.S. credit-card company by purchases, withdrew its 2008 earnings forecast after second-quarter profit fell 37 percent on worse-than-expected consumer defaults. The shares slumped 11 percent in extended trading.
Profit from continuing operations declined to $655 million, or 56 cents a share, from $1.04 billion, or 86 cents a year earlier, the company said today in a statement. The average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 82 cents. American Express said it added $600 million before taxes to reserves for U.S. loan losses.
''By almost any measure, the U.S. economy and business environment are much weaker than the assumptions'' the company had in January, Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Chenault said today in a conference call. ''Unemployment rates took the largest jump in over twenty years. Home prices declined at the fastest rate in decades and consumer confidence is at one of its all-time low points.''
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Bloomberg
Source URL:
http://www.bloomberg.com/app...aboP3lHg&refer=worldwide
They are just now figuring this out?
Two of the worlds largest home mortgage lenders (Country Wide and Indy Mac have failed and so has Bear Stearns and a bunch of smaller institutions) Freddy Mae and Fannie Mac are "insolvent"
How much shit needs to be piled on before you realize you are neck deep?
We jumped 500 points in the market way too fast. Nice rebound but I'm not impressed. There is still a ton of hurt coming. Remember this is a global economy and boy oh boy did we package up some bad paper and fuck a lot of banks out of this country over. Many of these countries are not nearly financially secure as the US. It could be Europe that breaks the camels back. Make no mistake....things will get worse. This is like the eye of the hurricane. Only problem is, we are at sea and the hurricane is getting stronger.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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Wachovia Has Record $8.9 Billion Loss, Cuts Dividend
| Quote From Source: | July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Wachovia Corp., the U.S. bank that hired Treasury Undersecretary Robert Steel as chief executive officer two weeks ago, reported a record quarterly loss of $8.9 billion, slashed the dividend and announced 6,350 job cuts. The stock fell as much as 12 percent in early New York trading.
The second-quarter loss of $4.20 a share compared with net income of $2.3 billion, or $1.23, a year earlier, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company said today in a statement. The loss included a $6.1 billion charge tied to declining asset values.
The writedown, job cuts and second dividend reduction in three months reflect Steel's response to the worst housing market since the Great Depression, which cost former CEO Kennedy Thompson his job after eight years. Wachovia has dropped more than 75 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading since it spent $24 billion two years ago to buy Golden West Financial Corp. just as home prices were peaking.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Bloomberg
Source URL:
http://www.bloomberg.com/app...=a3cStztOg8pk&refer=home
Ouch. This should affect the financial sector today.
Appl disappointed as well. Even thought they made 1 billion dollars, that is not good enough because futures look bleak. They will be treated like Google and slammed. They may open 20pts down right off the bat.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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Well APPL opened exactly 20pts down at the open. I'm getting pretty good at this. Those with the guts to buy did well since the stock only ended up 4 dollars down for the day.
What I do not understand nor can I figure out is how does a bank write off 9 billion dollars and it's stock go up 3.61? Wachovia did just that. It performed a miracle? Maybe the plunge protection team was active today? Or maybe the smart money is trying to force the 235million shares that are short on that stock to cover?
Wachovia Corp. $ 16.79
WB 3.61
Short Interest (Shares Short) 235,147,100
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 3.4
Short Percent of Float 12.18 %
Short Interest - Prior 177,251,600
Short % Increase / Decrease 32.66 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -30
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=wb
The volume today on that Bank (Wachovia (WB)) was amazing...over 1/4 a billion shares. Average is 59 million
Volume: 239,005,305
Avg Vol (3m): 59,706,800
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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California foreclosures up 261% from '07 levels
| Quote From Source: | Breaking: DataQuick reports today that foreclosures in California soared 33% from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2008, and are running 261% ahead of year-ago levels.
More, from DataQuick: "Lenders started foreclosure proceedings on a record number of California homeowners last quarter, the result of declining home values and the rampant spoilage of a batch of especially risky home loans made in late 2005 and 2006."
Writing on LATimes.com, Peter Hong leads with defaults rising to record levels: "A record number of California homeowners defaulted on mortgages last quarter, a real estate information service reported today."
Numbers:
-- DataQuick counted 121,341 "notices of default" in the second quarter, up 6.6% from the first quarter and up 124.9% from year-ago levels. The relatively small increase from quarter to quarter "may indicate that we're nearing a plateau," said DataQuick President John Walsh. "We won't know until the end of the year, but it may be that some lenders are starting to prioritize workouts with homeowners instead of grinding things through the foreclosure process."
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source LATIMES Blogs
Source URL:
http://latimesblogs.latimes....2008/07/cal-foreclosure.html
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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GM, Ford `On the Verge of Bankruptcy,' Altman Says
| Quote From Source: | July 22 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., the two biggest U.S. automakers, have about a 46 percent chance of default within five years, according to Edward Altman, a finance professor at New York University's Stern School of Business.
''Both are in very serious shape and the markets reflect that,'' Altman, the creator of the Z-score mathematical formula that measures bankruptcy risk, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The model shows that these companies are ''on the verge of bankruptcy,'' he said.
The Z-scores for GM and Ford give both a bond rating equivalent to a CCC ranking, though GM is in slightly worse condition than Ford, Altman said. GM reported a $38.7 billion loss in 2007, the biggest in its 100-year history, and hasn't posted a profit since 2004. The scores are based on the companies' finances at the end of the first quarter.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Bloomberg
Source URL:
http://www.bloomberg.com/app...YQuEUW4Q&refer=worldwide
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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FatalWishes
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Well one thing is for sure. The government ...ie taxpayers cannot prop up the entire banking system. I don't know how we as taxpayers will manage to prop up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with the 1 trillion dollar tab we are facing already but oh well.
As large corporations move and lay off people and jobs disappear I don't see how there will be any more tax payers left. LOL, this is like watching a slow twisting plane crash from 40,000 ft. We are at 30,000 ft now and the left wing just fell off.
I'm completely shocked at the "rally" in the financial sector. Goldman Sachs going up makes sense. Wells Fargo as well. But there are many banks going up that are a complete surprise. I'm thinking it must be massive short covering across the board. Once this short covering stops in the financial sector I wonder what will happen. Ever since the SEC said it was going to order no more naked shorting on the big boys this rally has been going on. These are truly amazing times.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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DanG
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there were 'rallies' like this in 1929 also...
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posted on 7/15/2008 at 08:02
