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DanG
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Total borrowing of depository institutions from 'the fed' ...
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FatalWishes
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AIG's huge 2Q loss shows credit market woes linger
| Quote From Source: | AIG loses more than $5B in 2Q, dashing investors' hopes that mortgage market woes behind it
NEW YORK (AP) -- American International Group Inc. posted its third straight quarterly loss, a rude awakening to investors hoping that troubles in the insurer's mortgage market investments were starting to level off.
The world's largest insurer suffered a deficit of $5.36 billion in the second quarter after losing $5.56 billion, or $3.62 billion after taxes, in what are called credit default swaps, and writing down $6.08 billion, or $4.02 billion after taxes, in the value of other investments.
Credit default swaps are insurance policies to protect bondholders against defaults. Over the past three quarters, AIG has lost more than $25 billion, pretax, to credit default swaps, and more than $15 billion, pretax, in other investments.
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Source Yahoo Biz
Source URL:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/0808...can_international_group.html
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FatalWishes
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Jobless claims hit highest point since March 2002
| Quote From Source: | WASHINGTON (AP) - The nation's jobs market sent a fresh cry of distress as the number of newly laid off people unexpectedly hit the highest level in more than six years, a Labor Department report showed Thursday.
The faltering economy and tight credit have forced companies to cut back, and as the job market shrinks, consumer spending may dwindle, too.
All that spells potentially more trouble for the country later this year as the bracing tonic of the government's tax rebates disappears. "Consumers will be very tight fisted in the coming months," predicted Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. "Nothing shuts down the consumer—and the economy—like the loss of a job."
Companies are laying off workers as they struggle with slowing customer demand, harder-to-get credit and high costs for fuel and other raw materials.
New applications filed for unemployment benefits rose last week by a seasonally adjusted 7,000 to 455,000, the department said in its weekly report. That was the most since late March 2002, when the job market was struggling mightily to get back on its feet after the 2001 recession.
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Source Breitbart
Source URL:
http://www.breitbart.com/art...D92DIKG81&show_article=1
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FatalWishes
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US foreclosure filings surge 55 percent
| Quote From Source: | in July as housing market continued to sink
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of homeowners stung by the dramatic decline in the U.S. housing market jumped last month as foreclosure filings grew by more than 50 percent compared with the same month a year ago, according to data released Thursday.
Nationwide, more than 272,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice in July, up 55 percent from about 175,000 in the same month last year and up 8 percent from June, RealtyTrac Inc. said. That means one in every 464 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing last month.
Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac monitors default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. More than 77,000 properties were repossessed by lenders nationwide in July, the company said.
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Source Biz.yahoo
Source URL:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080814/foreclosure_rates.html
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DanG
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not just in the US either
| Quote From Source: | LONDON (AFP) - The number of homeowners in England and Wales threatened with mortgage repossession orders has gone up by nearly a quarter over the past year, figures revealed Friday.
The Ministry of Justice said that 28,658 homeowners faced repossession orders in the second quarter of 2008, an increase of 24% compared to the same period in 2007 and 4% more than in the first quarter of 2008.
The gloomy figures suggest homeowners are feeling the pinch as mounting food and energy bills are squeezing their finances.
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/...k_afp/britaineconomyproperty |
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FatalWishes
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Breaking up big banks questioned as losses mount
| Quote From Source: | NEW YORK (AP) - America's biggest banks have suffered unprecedented losses from the ongoing credit crisis, and that's made some investors question whether the big financial conglomerates should be broken up in order to survive.
Break-up advocates, who for months have been clamoring for Citigroup Inc. (C) to be dismantled, got some validation of their viewpoint this past week. Europe's UBS AG (UBS) - created through the combination of Swiss Bank Corp. and Union Bank of Switzerland in 1997 - on Wednesday laid the groundwork to tear up its business model after another quarter of steep losses.
Though the UBS announcement was expected, it was nonetheless a departure from what executives promised during a wave of big bank deals that began in the late 1990s. The creators of global banks like Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), and HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC) had promised customers and shareholders that a diverse set of businesses would shield them from economic volatility.
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Source AP News
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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080816/D92J64J01.html
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ghoster
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Now is the time, the unraveling of the Alt-A mortgages and especially the option pay ARM along with the decline in CRE will show that financially this system is going to be down for a long count.
The banks that do survive this will be much less than they are now, and with the numbers being massaged all the time no one will have any information to make a decision with. This is going to be the start of hard times for many people. Unemployment is soaring, (don't believe the numbers out by the MSM) and that will translate into much more hardship for the american people. Look for homeless camps and food lines soon.
As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
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DanG
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I've been expecting this for some time now.
Solidify your groups, work together.
prepare your mind, thats the #1 important thing to do so you
avoid the deer-in-the-headlites problem...
peace,
DanG
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FatalWishes
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Financial Crisis Is Expected To Bring More Big Shocks
| Quote From Source: | The year-old financial crisis is not only far from over but could actually get much worse, bringing more big shocks to the US economy and stock market, a host of experts said Monday.
Among the predictions: the failure of some of the country's biggest financial institutions, the collapse of 1,000 banks and a possible government bailout of mortgage giants Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News).
"I think the financial problem is halfway through the cycle," David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer from Cumberland Advisors, told CNBC. "There's another shoe to drop ahead of us and it could be more severe."
Kotok thinks Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER - News), Wachovia (NYSE:WB - News) and other financial companies are at risk of failure as the cost of raising capital soars at a time when the banks need to pay settlements over auction rate securities.
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Source Yahoo Biz
Source URL:
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnbc/080818/26264706.html
Well its coming....soon. I thought we were going to sink about a month ago. Government propped us up again. Not this time. I suspect any week in the future. Just cannot say when.
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FatalWishes
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Large U.S. bank collapse seen ahead
| Quote From Source: | SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world's biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said on Tuesday.
"The U.S. is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say 'the worst is to come'," he told a financial conference.
"We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks," said Rogoff, who is an economics professor at Harvard University and was the International Monetary Fund's chief economist from 2001 to 2004.
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Source Yahoo BIZ
Source URL:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080819/usa_banks_crisis.html
Again here..
http://www.bloomberg.com/app...=a08cRVrtu86I&refer=home
I wonder if they are thinking Freddie Mae and Fannie Mac?
All I can find is "A LARGE US BANK WILL FAIL".
WTF does that mean?? There are a ton of banks in trouble. Which one is it?? I guess the gooberment prop job isnt going to work. All that money the tax payers spent on Fannie and Freddie is going out the window. Billions lost. Thanks Paulson. FUCKING MORON.
Let the shit collapse and get it over with already.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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DanG
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Let the shit collapse and get it over with already.
ditto
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ghoster
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This will be a multi year problem and no easy solutions, just like the last depression it didn't hit it's depths until 1932 so we are just in the beginning of this one. Once folks realize that it is serious and upon us then the SHTF moment is here. So far I am still hearing all sorts of BS about how this will turn around, and it isn't too bad, yadda yadda. I am just waiting for the darn thing to implode in a big way and the wake up call for folks come to the forefront. Just me I guess, but once that happens will be the time to find out who your friends really are. 
As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
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FatalWishes
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Ah Ha!!
Now its BANKS!! Only took 5 updates to the story. 
Large U.S. Banks May Fail Amid Recession, Rogoff Says (Update5)
http://www.bloomberg.com/app...=azlFYsJ8OqgQ&refer=home
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FatalWishes
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Analysts' Profit Forecasts Missing More Than Ever: Chart of Day
| Quote From Source: | Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Analysts trying to forecast U.S. earnings missed the mark by the biggest margin in at least 16 years last quarter as bank credit losses topped $500 billion and oil surged to records, according to Bloomberg data.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows analysts correctly predicted results for 6.7 percent of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index that released second-quarter earnings, the fewest since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1992.
''We're at an inflection point in many parts of the economy,'' said John Kattar, the Boston-based chief investment officer at Eastern Investment Advisors, which manages about $2 billion. ''No one really knows how it's going to end and that makes it very difficult to make predictions.''
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Bloomberg
Source URL:
http://www.bloomberg.com/app...=ar9FYyyXfzdo&refer=home
Assholes. I knew they were wrong. All those degrees and status as bankers do not mean shit. They are either stupid or lying to us. I think it is a little bit of both.
Nobody will take care of your money better than you. Stop listening to these jackasses and smell the coffee.
I've been saying it for months. Can you believe some people are calling a bottom again? WTF??? ARE THEY FUCKING STUPID???
The worst is yet to come. I wonder how many dumb ass sheeple have jumped back in for the slaughter. I own a couple of solar stocks and some VISA and that IS IT!! This market is ripe for a roll over. Its coming, and it will be this year.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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DanG
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October
---------------------
got Cash ??
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FatalWishes
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Buy houses. It's time. I'm calling it. I really feel the bottom is in for the housing market. I'd keep shorting the shit out of financial stocks.
I still think some big ass banks are going down. DSL for sure and it should not be too much longer. I'm still concerned about Washington Mutual.
Now is NOT the time to buy financial stocks unless you are buying puts or short selling. Houses yes. There is a lot of shit to hit for the banks and investment firms coming.
The Banks gotta dump their reo's and investors are going to be mopping up property that the banks are dumping.
Again, If I had the money to buy homes I'd start looking now. Prices are at the bottom and interest rates are still cheap. Now is the time. Get it while the getting is good.
I think the key factor in this decision was that homes are now selling in the hardest hit areas BELOW replacement cost. Investors are going in.
I think home builder stocks are still screwed along with the financial stocks. I don't know who will be around when this is all over but I have a funny feeling things will be very different. They may decide to just dump this entire mess on Obama.
September is going to be rough for stocks ...leading into October.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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| Quoting FatalWishes - posted on 7/15/2008 at 08:25 |
Bank United (BKUNA )
Current stock price,1.52 52wk High $22
Washington Mutual
Current stock price, $4.10 52wk high $44.04 (This bank is huge and just asset wise it is worth $16.00 a share. It could still fail, but we would have to be heading to the apocalypse and by that time we would have bigger issues than worrying about this bank failing)
Downey Financial (DSL)
Current stock price, 1.93 52 wk High $69.49
__________________________________________
Indy Mac Bank (OTC: IDMC.PK) FAILED/DONE
Current stock price, .12 52 wk High $31.32
First one to go off my list. Who is next???
___________________________________________
National City Corp (NCC)
Current stock price, 4.88 52 wk High $33.54
Fannie Mae (FNM)
Current stock price, 4.40 52 wk High $70.57
Freddie Mac (FRE)
Current stock price, 3.15 52 wk High $67.20
First Horizon National (FHN)
Current stock price, 10.41 52 wk High $39.03
Lehman Bros (LEH) Brokerage, not a bank but important
Current stock price, 13.73 52 wk High $74.09
Firstfed CP (FED)
Current stock price, 11.86 52 wk High $59.10
Franklin Finance CP (FBTX)
Current stock price, .67 52 wk High $14.39
Merrill Lynch (MER)
Current stock price, 24.41 52 wk High $89.23 (Note, Not sure if MER will fail, but their EPS is -14.23 and they are dropping fast. They report earnings on Thursday. This will be a key indicator to watch. That is the reason it is on the list.)
Wachovia Corporation (WB)
Current stock price, 14.91 52 wk High $53.10
Citigroup Inc. (C)
Current stock price, 17.49 52 wk High $52.97 (Just wanted to track this one. They are not going anywhere...I don't think. That trillion dollar asset story has me confused on this one.
Last updated Aug 20, 2008, 10:14 pm CST. There are some pretty weak looking banks out there.
Just a side note, I take a personal interest in Washington Mutual because that is where I have been banking for 20 something years. I still bank there and have no plans to move...yet. If I do, I will go to Wells Fargo.
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Many of the banks are up since I last posted. Some only a few cents but still it is pretty amazing. It would seem the way to go up in this market is to post a 5 billion dollar loss??
I'm feeling wishy washy on Washington Mutual at this point.
Buy SOLF, CSIQ, YGE and SOL and hang on for a bit. You will make quick gains on solar stocks. Record shorts in that sector and smart money is going to put the short squeeze on them. Solf will also blow out earnings report.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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ghoster
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No bottom yet, patience and another year of bloodletting then you will see sweet deals. Also remember that someone else has to be on the other side of any deal. Renters and buyers need jobs with stable salaries to support renting or buying. No jobs, no renters, so watch the bottom hasn't even been seen yet. Risky business calling bottom these days, and even riskier buying into it. This show hasn't even started yet, and it will be so much worse than most people can imagine that it will be talked about for generations.
If you ever talked to elder folks about the depression and watched their eyes that scared the bejesus out of them and this one will be worse for many reasons.
First is that there is no family farm to go back to and help out with, so food will be a problem and money won't buy squat in the near future. Plus jobs won't be plentiful this time around. I would suggest in getting some arable land, a secure source of water, and some guns and ammo along with a few friends to help out with the defense of same. Can't do this one alone, too risky and too much work will need to be done. Buying some supplies now will pay off further down the road. When there won't be any supplies. But then that is just my take on it, what do I really know?
As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
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DanG
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Gold Star assessment
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FatalWishes
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U.S. Mint suspends red-hot Eagle gold coins: dealers
| Quote From Source: | U.S. Mint suspends red-hot Eagle gold coins: dealers
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A shortage of American Eagle bullion coins following a recent sharp retreat in gold prices has forced the U.S. Mint to suspend sales of the popular coins temporarily, dealers said on Thursday.
Rand LeShay, senior vice president of A-Mark Precious Metals, an authorized purchaser for the U.S. Mint, confirmed that the Mint told dealers in a memorandum it was halting all sales of American Eagles, a novel item among collectors and investors.
"It is temporarily suspending," said LeShay. He said he saw no communication about a permanent suspension from the U.S. Mint.
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Source Biz.yahoo
Source URL:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080821/gold_eagle_shortage.html
I've been trying like hell to snag some. Gold is so far down its not even funny. When it breaks out its going to go up BIG.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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DanG
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| Quote From Source: | The U.S. financial crisis has cut so deep – and the government has taken on so much debt in misguided attempts to bail out such companies as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) – that even larger financial shocks are still to come, global investing guru Jim Rogers said in an exclusive interview with Money Morning.
Indeed, the U.S. financial debacle is now so ingrained – and a so-called “Super Crash” so likely – that most Americans alive today won't be around by the time the last of this credit-market mess is finally cleared away – if it ever is, Rogers said.
The end of this crisis “is a long way away,” Rogers said. “In fact, it may not be in our lifetimes.”
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/19/jim-rogers/ |
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FatalWishes
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| Quoting DanG - posted on 8/21/2008 at 18:46 |
| Quote From Source: | The U.S. financial crisis has cut so deep – and the government has taken on so much debt in misguided attempts to bail out such companies as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) – that even larger financial shocks are still to come, global investing guru Jim Rogers said in an exclusive interview with Money Morning.
Indeed, the U.S. financial debacle is now so ingrained – and a so-called “Super Crash” so likely – that most Americans alive today won't be around by the time the last of this credit-market mess is finally cleared away – if it ever is, Rogers said.
The end of this crisis “is a long way away,” Rogers said. “In fact, it may not be in our lifetimes.”
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/19/jim-rogers/
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DanG
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FatalWishes
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| Quoting ghoster - posted on 8/21/2008 at 08:43 |
No bottom yet, patience and another year of bloodletting then you will see sweet deals. Also remember that someone else has to be on the other side of any deal. Renters and buyers need jobs with stable salaries to support renting or buying. No jobs, no renters, so watch the bottom hasn't even been seen yet. Risky business calling bottom these days, and even riskier buying into it. This show hasn't even started yet, and it will be so much worse than most people can imagine that it will be talked about for generations.
If you ever talked to elder folks about the depression and watched their eyes that scared the bejesus out of them and this one will be worse for many reasons.
First is that there is no family farm to go back to and help out with, so food will be a problem and money won't buy squat in the near future. Plus jobs won't be plentiful this time around. I would suggest in getting some arable land, a secure source of water, and some guns and ammo along with a few friends to help out with the defense of same. Can't do this one alone, too risky and too much work will need to be done. Buying some supplies now will pay off further down the road. When there won't be any supplies. But then that is just my take on it, what do I really know?
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| Quote From Source: | Prices are below replacement cost and cash flow is positive. That brings investors to the table which starts soaking up supply as we're seeing. Price drops are all relative too. A 50% drop from $500,000 is a $250,000 price reduction. You can't get another $250,000 drop or the house is worth $0. % drops become less in real dollars. The mortgage market is being rebuilt by companies that did not participate in the subprime run up. With 10%-30% cash down and no short-term ARM's being underwritten, the market is definitely putting in a bottom. Is it an absolute bottom? No, but it is very very close...at least in CA.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
This was said by one of the smartest people I'll ever know in my life. He flat scares me with his accuracy. He agrees with me, the housing market is putting in a bottom in the hardest hit areas.
That doesn't meant that big banks won't still fail and all hell is going to not break loose. I am specifically talking about the housing and mortgage markets. Not the rest of the financial crisis. We are still fucked on that part. I don't see any way out of it. And its going to shock a lot of people just how bad it is.
I'm saying buy a house now or regret it later. They are going to HAVE to raise interest rates. There is no choice in the matter. Get your home while the prices are reduced and the interest rates are still down.
Once Bush is out of office, all hell is going to break loose.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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DanG
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Once Bush is out of office, all hell is going to break loose.
riiiight - cause its been so smootch with him IN office...
not pickin on ya, I do believe "It's going to be Much Worse"
but a LOT of it will be BECAUSE of the neocon F*CKUPS |
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![[*]](/images/corporate/default_icon.gif){kind=icon}
posted on 8/7/2008 at 09:10
