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Author: Subject: 'It's going to be much worse' (Economy)
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[*] posted on 3/6/2008 at 11:42
Home Foreclosures Hit Record High


Quote From Source:
Industry Group Says Home Foreclosures at Record High Last Quarter


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Home foreclosures soared to an all-time high in the final quarter of last year, underscoring the suffering of distressed homeowners and the growing danger the housing meltdown poses for the economy.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, in a quarterly snapshot of the mortgage market released Thursday, said the proportion of all mortgages nationwide that fell into foreclosure shot up to a record high of 0.83 percent in the October-to-December quarter. That surpassed the previous high of 0.78 percent set in the prior quarter.

"Clearly it's the worst it's been," chief association economist Doug Duncan said in an interview with The Associated Press.

More homeowners -- at the same time -- fell behind on their monthly payments.
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Source Yahoo Biz
Source URL:
biz.yahoo.com

Well this is about the final quarter of last year. This first quarter of 2008 is gonna blow that last 2007 quarter away. And the second quarter of 2008 will be even worse. We are spiking up. How high it will go is anybodies guess...but like the title of this thread states...it will get much worse.

More here....

U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures Rise as Owners 'Give Up'

bloomberg.com




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[*] posted on 3/6/2008 at 11:45

I just read another troubling statistic. Those that are maxing out their credit cards are now borrowing against their IRA's and 401k's to make ends meet. The rate of borrowing has gone up quite a bit. So they have no home equity, no credit, and soon they won't have retirement accounts.


www.sptimes.com




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[*] posted on 3/6/2008 at 13:30

Homeowner equity is lowest since 1945

news.yahoo.com




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[*] posted on 3/6/2008 at 16:11

Its like someone installed U.S. Credit Vista Edition. lol



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[*] posted on 3/6/2008 at 18:04

Quoting FatalWishes - posted on 3/6/2008 at 13:30

Homeowner equity is lowest since 1945

news.yahoo.com





I wuz gonna post that.

Everybody should say that Out Loud --- Home Equity is the LOWEST Since 1945

that being the End of World War II...
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[*] posted on 3/6/2008 at 18:06
S&P 500, Nasdaq Plunge to 52-Week Low


Quote From Source:
Wall Street Drops on Continuing Worries About Credit Markets, Bleak Reading on Foreclosures

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks tumbled Thursday as the ailing credit market and a spike in home foreclosures intensified the market's worries about a sagging economy. The Dow Jones industrials gave up 214 points.

Concerns about credit grew after Thornburg Mortgage Inc. and a Carlyle Group bond fund revealed troubles with investments backed by mortgages. The entities failed to make margin calls, which are payments to guarantee much larger debt or investments.

And the genesis of the credit concerns that erupted last year -- souring mortgage loans -- dealt investors another blow after the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that home foreclosures rose to record levels in the fourth quarter. Worries about defaults have made lenders hesitant to extend credit, preventing the credit markets from functioning normally.
Click source url to view entire story.



Source Yahoo Biz
Source URL
biz.yahoo.com

It is not over yet. Wait until this quarters reports come out for everything. They are going to really sink things lower.




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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 10:27
Employers Slash Jobs by Most in 5 Years


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WASHINGTON (AP) -- Employers slashed jobs by 63,000 in February, the most in five years, the starkest sign yet the country is heading dangerously toward recession or is in one already.

The Labor Department's report, released Friday, also showed that the nation's unemployment rate dipped to 4.8 percent as hundreds of thousands of people -- perhaps discouraged by their prospects -- left the civilian labor force. The jobless rate was 4.9 percent in January.

Job losses were widespread, with hefty cuts coming from construction, manufacturing, retailing, financial services and a variety of professional and business services. Those losses swamped gains elsewhere including education and health care, leisure and hospitality, and the government.
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Source Yahoo Biz
Source URL:
biz.yahoo.com


Were screwed. The market is going to drop like lead today.

Well with the price of lead...it may be wise to hold it and say it is going to drop like a rock instead.

I told everybody I know a couple of months ago to move their 401k's over to something safe. This market is going down and its going to keep going down.

Many said..oh it will go back up....right.

Eventually it will. But say like you had 200k at the beginning of the year. If we scrub off all your gains from the last 7 years....say to 2001 levels....you will be starting over with around 100k or less. So that is what you will be starting with in 2009 when things recover.

Had you moved your stuff you would be starting over with your full 200k...or more if you moved it to a money market account that was making 4%. Or bonds or anything else that was safe.

This is far from over. The market expected 25,000 jobs to be cut and they got 63,000 instead. Last Friday we dropped 300+ and yesterday was over 200. We are well over 500 pts down and today could see a massive sell off as people go to cash.

The fed is supposed to speak. This could go two ways.

1) They drop the rates and help stabilize the market
2) They drop the rates and its perceived that things are way worse than thought and cause a sell off anyhow.

Guess we will have to wait and see. I have an uneasy feeling about things.

Well no rate cut so now....the Fed is going to print more money and have bigger auctions for the banks..

biz.yahoo.com

So that is them fighting things.

Cutting rates will do nothing for the consumer anyhow. The rates have gone UP

MORTGAGE RATES (Rates may include points.)
CURRENT 1 MO. PRIOR
15-YEAR 5.53 4.96
30-YEAR 6.12 5.49
1-YEAR ARM 4.73 5.05




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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 10:31

job levels, consumer confidence, savings, equity ...etc etc ALL DOWN

got cash ?
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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 10:31
US Stocks Head for Lower Open


Quote From Source:
NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. stock futures signaled a sharply lower open Friday after the government's much-anticipated February employment report came in weaker than expected.

The Labor Department's report that employers cut jobs by 63,000 last month -- the most since March 2003 -- unnerved investors worried about the health of the economy and who had been expecting a 25,000 gain in jobs. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent, the decline reflects people leaving the labor force.

The highly anticipated report came minutes after the Federal Reserve announced it would take fresh steps to ease credit troubles, including boosting the amount of money it will auction to banks. The move stoked worries that the employment reading would be weaker than expected.

The Fed said it will increase the size of its March 10 and 24 auctions to banks to $50 billion each. The auctions had been slated for $30 billion each and central bank officials said they plan to even bigger amounts for future auctions if need be. Also, the Fed said that it will, starting Friday, begin a series of repurchase transactions expected to reach $100 billion.

Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 129, or 1.07 percent, to 11,941. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures fell 11.90, or 0.91 percent, to 1,296.00. Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 8.25, or 0.48 percent, to 1,706.00.
Click source url to view entire story.



Source Yahoo Biz
Source URL:
biz.yahoo.com


Just what I feared......Dow will break 12k today...that is not a good sign. Nasdaq will go under 2200 as well. We are going to head below January lows today.




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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 10:34

if it holes 12, which I think it will, all bets are off.

I think I'll make this my tag line...

---------------
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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 10:58

Phew!!

So far so good. Looks like the Dow found support at 12k.

Nasdaq seems to be holding up...but its already at its lowest level in years.

Lets see how this day unwinds. Many investors do not like holding things over the weekend in case of bad news so there could be a mass sell off around 2-3:00 pm. Lets just wait and see.




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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 12:33

:borg:
ruh roh -- man the life boats
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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 14:49

As of 1:49pm the Dow is down 142.87 and below 12k.



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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 15:20
It's So Much Worse Than You Think


Quote From Source:
Right now, things look bad. Every day, the economic news looks worse. Unemployment has been creeping up. The service sector is shrinking for the first time in half a decade. Consumer confidence is declining.

The stock market's performance of late reflects this news. The S&P 500 is down nearly 9% year to date, and some stocks have been completely mauled. It's just a couple of months into 2008, and InterContinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), Garmin (Nasdaq: GRMN), and Baidu.com (Nasdaq: BIDU) have already all been clobbered by more than 30%.

You might expect that sort of monthly volatility from small caps, but these are well-known companies that had market caps of $10 billion or more. And none of them has really announced any bad news.

Things look so bad that you might think that there's nowhere to go but up. But I think this crisis has just begun.
Click source url to view entire story.



Source The Motley Fool
Source URL:
www.fool.com


DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN
(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 11,836.79
Trade Time: 2:22PM ET
Change: Down - 203.60 (1.69%)

NASDAQ COMPOSITE
(Nasdaq: ^IXIC)
Index Value: 2,190.60
Trade Time: 2:23PM ET
Change: Down - 29.90 (1.35%)


Just what I was afraid of...so we have scrubbed almost 1000 pnts off since last Friday!! Day is not over yet, always time for a rebound... I just don't see that happening heading into the weekend.

I said a long time ago we would go below 10k this year. We have a ways to go down yet unless there is some freakin' miracle to stop all of this.

We are now at low 2006 levels. So just take the last two years of gains and erase them.

Don't try to gues where the bottom is in thise market. Just know we are not anywhere near it.




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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 15:41

And down and down and down it goes
Where it will stop, nobody knows.


Somebody needs to slap Bush and the Fed and say hey "We are already in a recession, and its going to get much worse".

If it takes about 10 months to have foreclosures in stats out, it will be mid 2009 before we ever get close to being out of this mess and well into 2010 before we can put it behind us and start fresh. And that is not taking into account what the actual recession and job loss will do to the economy. We may not see daylight until 2010 or later :(

This friggen blows. I want somebodies ass on a platter and in jail.

Much of what happend was pure greed. I cannot imagine very much of it was even legal.




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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 15:51

This friggen blows. I want somebodies ass on a platter and in jail.

HA - I've felt that way for Years !!
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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 17:02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN
(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 11,895.08
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: Down 146.70 (1.22%)

Not as bad as I feared, but still down quite a bit.




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[*] posted on 3/7/2008 at 19:26

I just thought of something. As home values plunge....

I know in my area taxes are based on the value of the home. So these towns that are going broke because of plunging home values....will go bankrupt as prices of homes go down and less taxes are being paid.

Its good for me though. My yearly property taxes are really high.




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[*] posted on 3/8/2008 at 12:05
Countrywide reportedly under FBI investigation


Quote From Source:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The FBI has launched an investigation into the lending practices of battered home lender Countrywide Financial Corp., according to a report in The Wall Street Journal. The mortgage company is suspected of widespread fraud, the paper said, which may have contributed to the subprime mortgage crisis that has rocked the U.S. economy.

The probe will examine underwriting and mortgage origination practices, and whether the company misrepresented losses related to subprime loans.

Bank of America, which agreed in January to acquire Countrywide for $4 billion in stock, denied any knowledge of a federal investigation.
Click source url to view entire story.



Source CNN
Source URL:
money.cnn.com

Good....

they need to investigate why all these CEO's are getting millions of dollars in bonuses while their shareholders and companies tank.




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[*] posted on 3/11/2008 at 09:19

Well futures look pretty good this morning.....the fed is trying to ease the liquidity problem. I think they are trying to stop a market crash. This is just a band aid. I don't think we can buy our way out of this problem....guess we will have to wait and see.

www.bloomberg.com

Yay government.....loaning 200 billion in Treasury Securities. We may climb above 12k on the dow again.




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[*] posted on 3/11/2008 at 09:57

eh - market when up slightly and is already dropping again...
the dow has been gored by a bull (pun intended) and the 'Fed' just put on another Flintstones bandaid. whooopie

the price of gas is -still- going up and the housing market is
-still- going down.

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[*] posted on 3/11/2008 at 12:30

Oh don't worry...the bull as walked away and the Bear is taking a nap right now after chewing so much off the market for the last couple of weeks. He will wake up and we will have our bear market going as strong as ever shortly.

The market can handle only so many down days then it must bounce....and this bounce will be short lived.

The credit crisis will not be fixed nor will it stop the foreclosures. This is a short term bandaid that is pronlonging an already slow death.

Want to know why the governement is putting money into it? Because nobody else will.... Here is why


Quote From Source:
American financial institutions are drastically overleveraged and what we are seeing is a deleveraging of them...period. It all goes back to a company having $40B in equity with $1 trillion in assets and $960B in debt. A 4% deterioration in asset values eliminates $40B in equity and effectively makes the company worth $0. 4% is not a big move either. These institutions got greedy, pressed up on high risk assets and the downside risk is 10%+ for many of them. They are underwater big time because of their ridiculous debt:equity ratios. Now they are trying to bail themselves out by making more high risk bets, hedges, etc. and many of them are going bad. They need access to capital to keep making those bets. Who wants to provide capital to companies with these Balance Sheets though? The sovereign wealth funds are starting to figure it out and they don't want a piece of it. Only the Fed will fund these drug induced gambleholics, with tax payer money no less. I think that the problem is far greater than $500B too. Commercial paper reflects a 6% default rate because this is the next paper to go bad and somebody has the sense to price it in right now and stop lending to these idiots with 30:1 leverage. Cash flow is nice but a company's ultimate value is based on the creation of long term equity on its Balance Sheet, that is accounting in its simplest form.
Click source url to view entire story.



Source IBD

Also here is how much money has been injected by the fed lately that has all been lost.

Quote From Source:
Got this from Yahoo.......

biz.yahoo.com

So the FED is injecting $200 billion in the market right now plus the $100 billion it is auctioning off plus another $100 billion it has dedicated monthly to give away as needed, and we don't know how much they have been injecting each day either. If this article does not present a case for hyper-inflation plus super slow growth creates super stagflation -> deep reccession -> possible depression.

The FED is putting $300 billion dollars in the financial system just to have all these institutions lose it in one month!!!!!!!! Lets add it up, how much has our FED contributed that we know of so far?


$20 billion in auctions in December
$30 billion in auctions in January
$40 billion in auctions in February
$100 billion in auctions in March
$200 billion in just giving money away to institutions in March
$100 billion to give away just in case institutions need it in March.
________________________________
$490 billion dollars have been injected in the financial system since December and all of it has been lost on bad investments in the markets!!!!!!!
And the media make you think $12 billion a month on the worthless war in Iraq is a lot of money, that's chump change compared to this!!!!

This is getting ridiculus!!!! Somebody needs to stop this guy Bernanke, he is doing nothing but taking over Greenspan's spot in the fleecing and killing of the American Economy!!!!
Click source url to view entire story.



Source IBD




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[*] posted on 3/11/2008 at 12:54

So basically people are gambling on bad bets to save themselves the staggering losses from the housing market and making things worse. The taxpayers are paying for them to do this.

Its like going double down on a losing bet. Double or nothing.....and we will have nothing.

If they would have just rolled the market over and let the recession come and get it all out of the way we might have been ok. Now I'd have to say we are not going to have a recession and this could lead to a depression as banks fail.




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[*] posted on 3/11/2008 at 13:04

Yah I was thinking the dow would be between 9500-10500 by the time this mess is over...

Now I'm thinking 8000-9000...yup...you got that right. We are setting ourselves up for a crash of historic proportions. We are heading towards a time where there will be the greatest seperation between the haves and have nots.

They need to stop importing shit from China and India and fire up some jobs over here and really quick.




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[*] posted on 3/11/2008 at 13:20

They need to stop importing shit from China and India and fire up some jobs over here and really quick.

HA !
that'll only happen *after* the fact to put millions of unemployed, HOMELESS to work... classic strategy of the 'ruling class'.

:borg:
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