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Author: Subject: 'It's going to be much worse' (Economy)
FatalWishes
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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 15:15

The way the market is acting, they hit the bottom today. The VIX closed at 52 so I don't think this mess is over with. Lets see what the markets do for a while. That was a big 500 pt move up in the end.



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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 15:18

Quoting MountainManMike - posted on 10/6/2008 at 14:42

maybe we can put a new deal 2.0 into alternative energy and constructing things to make us energy independent.




That is a good idea IMO. It might make energy more expensive up front, but we will definitely prosper in the long run by not sending a trillion dollars a year to the arabs. It is estimated to be 3 trillion per year in 10 years if we keep this stupidity up... or whatever the figures really are.. two dollars is even too much in my opinion.

Doesn't anyone remember the 1973 oil embargo? I can remember sitting in the car with my dad ALL DAY waiting to get gas. You'd think we'd learn by now.
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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 15:28

Quoting FatalWishes - posted on 10/6/2008 at 15:15

The way the market is acting, they hit the bottom today. The VIX closed at 52 so I don't think this mess is over with. Lets see what the markets do for a while. That was a big 500 pt move up in the end.




That jump at the end was bargain hunting. I don't think this slide is over. To make fun of Bush and McCain.... the fundamentals of this crash are strong :-)




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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 15:30
Citigroup sues Wachovia and Wells Fargo for 60 Billion


Quote From Source:
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wachovia, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, in consultation with the Federal Reserve, have agreed to a standstill of all formal litigation activity.

The agreement is scheduled to end at noon on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve officials have been in talks with Wells Fargo and Citigroup in the hope of getting the parties to come to some sort of agreement, according to a person with knowledge of the talks. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the matter.
Click source url to view entire story.



Source Yahoo Finance
Source URL:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/0810...igroup_wachovia_lawsuit.html

I think Citigroup is pissed off at Wells Fargo for undermining the government deal with Wachovia. It's like the government handed Citi a lollipop and Wells Fargo jerked it out of their hands and ran off lol.




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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 15:33

Quoting Indy - posted on 10/6/2008 at 15:28

That jump at the end was bargain hunting. I don't think this slide is over. To make fun of Bush and McCain.... the fundamentals of this crash are strong :-)




I think we saw a ton of stocks move from weak hands to strong hands so that is good in a way. It is burning a lot of traders as cash calls on margin accounts come due.




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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 16:14
Jim Cramer: Time to get out of the stock market


Quote From Source:
Bullish investors should turn into shrinking violets as the stock market continues its shocking downward spiral, CNBC's “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer told Ann Curry on TODAY Monday.

In what Curry called a “dramatic statement,” Cramer emphatically urged any investor who has money they may need in the next five years tied to stocks to pull their dough out.

“I thought about this all weekend,” Cramer told Curry. “I do not want to say these things on TV
Click source url to view entire story.



Source MSNBC
Source URL:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27045699/

LOL, time to go long. Just do the opposite of what this bald headed chicken fucker says and you will be rich.

This expert called the bottom back in July when the market was around 12k. We are in the 9's now..nice call.




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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 16:30
Bank of America reports profit drop, capital raise


Quote From Source:
Bank of America profits fall 68 pct; Will raise cash by selling stock, cutting dividend

NEW YORK (AP) -- Bank of America Corp. on Monday reported its third-quarter results earlier than planned, revealing a 68 percent profit drop and plans to boost capital by selling stock and halving its dividend.

Like most other major financial institutions, Bank of America has been hit by significant losses in mortgages, credit cards and other souring debt.

Profit fell to $1.18 billion, or 15 cents per share, for the July-to-September period from $3.7 billion, or 82 cents per share, in the same period last year. That was much lower than analysts' estimates of 62 cents per share, according to Thomson Financial.
Click source url to view entire story.



Source Yahoo BIZ
Source URL:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081006/earns_bank_of_america.html

Ugh, every time I get ready to buy there is more bad news.




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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 16:36

Quoting FatalWishes - posted on 9/29/2008 at 22:39

Quoting FatalWishes - posted on 9/29/2008 at 06:55

Quoting MountainManMike - posted on 9/29/2008 at 04:43

fatal, u recommended getting back in with things like BAC and GS and putting as much as you can in them...would u even suggest going out on margin with these?




I never buy on Margin. If I cannot afford it I don't buy it. You need a margin account to buy Calls though and I would do that for say January of next year. I would choose JPM or GS. I would certainly wait until Wednesday. I fully expect a good pounding and a good drop on the Dow and S&P. Once things look the worst I start buying. I mean things have to look bleak with no recovery hope at all. Watch the $VIX. When you see it reverse its time.

Buy at the bottom. We should hit it this week. Barring any issues with the bill. This is such new and uncharted territory. Given the article above I don't think our elected officials believe it will work either. It's like they signed something on a wing and a prayer. I'm 80% in cash right now.

There is no way Warren Buffet would have purchased 5 billion in Goldman Sachs without knowing something. Of course his strike price is $115.00 and he can buy an additional 5 billion at that price anytime. He'll probably wait until it goes over $230 a share so he can double his money in a day lol.




Well I got that part right. One thing changed though which is why I said wait until Wednesday. I thought the bill would pass. We are in new territory. I knew we would take a good pounding and boy or boy did we ever. More than I thought we would. I have no visions of tomorrow. It was heavy selling into the close so I feel we will drop in the morning. How far is hard to say.




The rules keep changing. Fed keeps screwing around with the free market and free enterprise. We are heading towards a nationalized banking system. Like national health care..only now if you want a loan you have to submit your request in triplicate and wait 5 months to hear that you mistyped something and have to start all over again. So another 6 mos will go by and you will be approved for 1/3 of what you applied for meaning you can buy a used Yugo for 300.00 at 13%.

There is too much uncertainty and too many people saying we are heading for a global crash. I think I'll sit on the sidelines and wait this one out until next week. I really want to buy some bank calls for January.




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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 18:32

I just applied for a federal stafford loan through wells fargo. Let's see how that one goes...:gah:



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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 21:18
NIKKEI 225 dipped below 10k


Value 10,160.21 Change-312.880 % Change -2.987

High 10,328.54 Low 9,916.21 Open 10,328.54

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=NKY%3AIND




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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 21:31

Face it, we adverted the major capitulation and even though the fear is there and major fear at that, we dropped over 7% and then we bounced back up 5%.

I guess we need the $VIX at 60 or higher, the hedge funds dumping and that final capitulation day to crash and see what is left standing then try to figure out where the best values are.

Right now the Solar industry has been hammered. I mean those stocks have been obliterated and many are very profitable and the holders were forced to sell. The financial stocks have been decimated beyond repair on many. I mean I've never seen so many broken charts. Fertilizers, housing, and many other sectors have had more than a 50% haircut already. Some sectors like the Solar sector are down over 85% from the highs. These are profitable stocks mind you. Not insurance or bank stocks with negative EPS's.

Once the sell off started it was a land slide. There are bag holders in the 40's and 50's looking at 10.00 stock prices. It is sickening. They will come back some day. It may take 5 years. If you don't have to sell, then don't. You don't lose until you sell. Eventually the short sellers have to cover and buy those shares back up. ;)




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[*] posted on 10/6/2008 at 22:33

Quoting thedood - posted on 10/6/2008 at 18:32

I just applied for a federal stafford loan through wells fargo. Let's see how that one goes...:gah:




Student loan lending has been tight. Government can always print your tuition out though and get you on to your graduate classes.




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[*] posted on 10/7/2008 at 06:52

Quote From Source:
Customers of the Icesave internet bank have been warned they will probably have to claim compensation for money held in their savings accounts.

The Icelandic government took control of the country's second biggest bank on Tuesday to stop it collapsing.
Click source url to view entire story.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7656387.stm
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[*] posted on 10/7/2008 at 07:32
September consumer sales drop sharply


Quote From Source:
Not one spending category posted positive gains over last year, according to the report by SpendingPulse, the retail data service of MasterCard Advisors.
Overall September apparel sales fell 5.5 percent from a year ago, with women's apparel down 9.1 percent. Furniture sales sank 13.3 percent, the worst decline since 2003, while electronics and appliance sales tumbled 13.8 percent.
Click source url to view entire story.


http://www.reuters.com/artic...dUSTRE4960YR20081007?sp=true

:baddevil:
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[*] posted on 10/7/2008 at 07:36

Well..there should be some really good deals come Christmas time.



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[*] posted on 10/7/2008 at 07:44

Yep, if ya have the Cash

:cool:
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[*] posted on 10/7/2008 at 08:19

Well Futures are up. After this massive sell off over the last few days there has to be a rebound at least. My god there are stocks that have just been creamed for no reason.

It was a total bloodbath in some sectors. Buying opportunities are everywhere. Investors are licking their chops right now.




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[*] posted on 10/8/2008 at 03:51

Asian markets took a severe beating. You wonder if it was a reaction to the US or something else. By beating I mean the Nikkei was down 9.38%. When day hit Europe today and those markets are taking a beating as well with the big 3 down over 5% as I write this. Two of the three are down by over 6%. I think Wednesday is going to be another bloodbath on Wall Street.



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[*] posted on 10/8/2008 at 03:54

welcome to the beginning of the end
http://en.stockq.org/


-------------
got Cash?
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[*] posted on 10/8/2008 at 03:55

Worst Dow % drops in history:

* October 19, 1987: -22.61%
* October 28, 1929: -12.82%
* October 29, 1929: -11.73%
* November 6, 1929: -9.92%
* December 18, 1899: -8.72%

Could be a top five day. :baddevil:
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[*] posted on 10/8/2008 at 05:18

Iceland is about to go bankrupt.

No, not the Bank of Iceland. The ENTIRE country of Iceland.
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[*] posted on 10/8/2008 at 06:19

Interesting how so many people are shocked. The real Pro's saw this back in October of 2007. I began to think something was weird in November but we rebounded in December. After that, it was all over. We moved our 401ks after the big drop in January and have not been back since. I have recovered most of my money from that but worry and fret everyday if I should not just put it all in cash and keep it under my mattress.

They need to rid the planet of all money. Seriously. Do the Star Trek thing. They don't want, need, or use money. Everything is for the betterment of the human race. It really is a novel Idea.

Man Asia bit the dust. The Nikkei is now officially under 10k. Barely above 9k. Good lord what a drop.

FatalWishes has attached this image:
3e/HP_NKY_797278.JPG - 12.72kb




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[*] posted on 10/8/2008 at 06:27

Quoting MattN - posted on 10/8/2008 at 05:18

Iceland is about to go bankrupt.

No, not the Bank of Iceland. The ENTIRE country of Iceland.




I have a bad feeling they are going to be the first of many this time around as world markets come tumbling down. This was all caused by greed in the USA. Yet they executives that are responsible for this have golden parachutes. They should be poor and sitting in prison. You would think people from Iceland would come here and maul those executives that did this shit. Seriously, they fucked over the entire planet.




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[*] posted on 10/8/2008 at 06:32
British Banks Get Unprecedented Government Bailout


Quote From Source:
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Britain's banks will get an unprecedented 50 billion-pound ($87 billion) government lifeline and emergency loans from the central bank after the freeze in credit markets threatened to bring down the financial system.

The government will offer to buy preference shares from Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Barclays Plc and at least six other banks, and provide about 250 billion pounds of loan guarantees to refinance debt, the Treasury said in a statement today. The Bank of England will make at least 200 billion pounds available. The plan doesn't specify how much each bank will get.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is following U.S. President George W. Bush, who approved a plan last week to spend $700 billion to prop up financial institutions with untested measures as equities plunged around the world.
Click source url to view entire story.



Source Bloomberg
Source URL:
http://www.bloomberg.com/app...=aVNmfwifeMEg&refer=home




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[*] posted on 10/8/2008 at 07:08
Fed cuts rate 1/2%


Quote From Source:
The Fed cut its key federal funds lending rate by half a percentage point to 1.5 percent and also lowered its discount rate by the same amount to 1.75 percent.
Click source url to view entire story.



Source Yahoo biz
Source URL:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/0810...siness_us_interestrates.html

Well futures are up on that rate cute. We should rebound a bit today. I don't think the drop is over though. Still some stocks at high levels and people are starting to think deep recession, perhaps depression, and the market has to reflect that. We will know more come the holiday season. Walmart is looking really good right now. That and Gold.

People were panicking. The $VIX made it to 58.24 the day before yesterday!! They were pulling out their IRA's and 401k's and pulling money out of the market in fear. That was causing things to drop further and causing more fear and more people to pull out, yet creating more panic and it is just became a self feeding fear machine. The more people panic, the more the markets drop causing even more people to panic and get their money out.

Emotion is an interesting thing to watch. I see so many stocks that make money, valid companies trading below their IPO prices that I just cannot wait to get back into the market. Yet, if I wait they may get even cheaper. Many good stocks have been unfairly dumped.

My god, Visa is almost at its IPO price at 51.55. I think IPO price was around 44.00 a share. If you always wanted to own a stock like that, this is your chance of a lifetime.

Apple is below 90 dollars now which is about a 56% drop from the top. Google has been cut in half as well down about 53%.

Research in Motion (RIMM) Maker of the Black Berry, is now $55.05 with an EPS of 3.07. They are about to release the Storm which will improve earnings, making this a bargain of a lifetime. They are 63% down off their high of 148.

It's incredible the drops some of these valid, great, wonderful stocks have had. I guess cheap stocks can get cheaper. Many are trading way below their values and until they report recession type earnings, nobody is going to touch them.

The solar industry is being decimated still. Many of those stocks are down 90%. Pretty funny how the housing stocks are trading higher and they are not even profitable. The solar industry has many profitable companies but since most are in China, investors have dumped the shares since that entire market is down almost 50%. People saw that in their retirement accounts and sold off dropping it even more. Panic sure is a bitch. People need to learn to hold on. Things always come back. China is going to go solar pretty soon and many of those dumped companies stand to gain handsomely.

I'd buy SOLF, CSIQ, YGE, STP, ENER, TSL, JASO, LDK, and SOL. Those stocks were treated so unfairly they will have good gains over time. Shorts drove the hell out of them and they will pop good when they cover.

Housing and financial sectors lay in shambles. I cannot even begin to list the damaged stocks in those two sectors.
Toll Brothers (TOL) has held up incredibly well throughout all of this. Most stocks in the housing sector have had 50% haircuts for sure.

You can take the last 5 years of gains on the Dow (August 2003) and sweep them under the table. They never happened. You can take the last 5 years of gains on the S&P and wipe them out as well. (Sept 2003) as well as the Nasdaq.

I would expect a rebound for a little bit and then I have no clue what will happen after that. Go long for a bit but watch your stocks and the market. This is dangerous territory. This could be a 1 day rebound or may last 10 minutes after the opening bell. It may last a week. Who in the hell knows?

Futures have dropped from as high as 250 this morning to 50. It may signal a slide is on the way again today. We may drop as soon as the opening bell rings. I'm still thinking the bottom is in the 7500-8500 range which means we have another 1000 pts left to drop. At the minimum.




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