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DanG
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eh - non U.S.
if it misses the Yucatan it might make south TX. |
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FatalWishes
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Well Now that it is a Cat 2 I wonder how long it will take to get to a Cat 3
FatalWishes has attached this image:
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT34 KNHC 162355
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007
...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST.
LUCIA...MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF ANGUILLA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST OR ABOUT 205
MILES...330 KM...EAST OF MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH WAS
RECENTLY REPORTED IN ST. LUCIA IN ONE OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF
DEAN.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...57.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
URNT12 KNHC 161811
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 16/17:33:00Z
B. 13 deg 49 min N
055 deg 27 min W
C. NA mb 2877 m
D. 78 kt
E. 323 deg 005 nm
F. 044 deg 075 kt
G. 315 deg 006 nm
H. 974 mb
I. 14 C/ 3051 m
J. 19 C/ 3069 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. E350/16/10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0104A DEAN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 75 KT NW QUAD 17:30:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 320 / 6NM
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
This is the vortext data message for Dean. Note the 974 mb low.
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FatalWishes
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When it drops another 92mb...I'll be impressed 
Wilma was just too bad a$$ and I don't know If I will live long enough to see 882mb beaten. Ya never know though.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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FatalWishes
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| Quoting Indy - posted on 8/16/2007 at 19:25 |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
URNT12 KNHC 161811
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 16/17:33:00Z
B. 13 deg 49 min N
055 deg 27 min W
C. NA mb 2877 m
D. 78 kt
E. 323 deg 005 nm
F. 044 deg 075 kt
G. 315 deg 006 nm
H. 974 mb
I. 14 C/ 3051 m
J. 19 C/ 3069 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. E350/16/10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0104A DEAN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 75 KT NW QUAD 17:30:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 320 / 6NM
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
This is the vortext data message for Dean. Note the 974 mb low.
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D 78 kt = 88 mph..back to a Cat 1 now?
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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Indy
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Honestly I didn't think the storm looked all that impressive in the last hour or two.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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Indy
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Also I'm not sure how old that message is. It is possible it was from earlier today. Actually that report may be several hours old.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT34 KNHC 170249
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007
...DEAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION.
AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...
NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.1 N...58.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
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Indy
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This comes from the 11pm NHC discussion.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL OR
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON THE EARLIER AIR FORCE
FLIGHT RECORDED A PEAK SURFACE WIND OF 88 KT AROUND 19Z IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE WIND IN
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE EARLIER
AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT STRUCTURAL TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 85 KT. COMMUNICATIONS DIFFICULTIES DURING THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION PREVENTED MUCH OF THE DATA FROM GETTING TO
US...BUT DROPSONDE DATA CALLED IN AFTERWARD BY THE CREW INDICATE
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
ABOUT 976 MB.
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
Kind of strange in my opinion.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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FatalWishes
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Hurricane Dean blasts into Caribbean
| Quote From Source: | MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Dean uprooted trees, tore down power lines and ripped the roof off a hospital in St. Lucia on Friday as it raced into the Caribbean on a track that could take it near Jamaica as a dangerously powerful storm next week, officials said.
On the nearby French island of Martinique, sustained winds were measured at 75 mph (120 kph) with gusts up to 105 mph (170 kph), according to France's weather service.
Dean reached the Caribbean Sea through the narrow St. Lucia Channel after a long journey across the Atlantic and threatened to become a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale in the area of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula in four days.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Reuters
Source URL:
http://www.reuters.com/artic...tNews&rpc=22&sp=true
FatalWishes has attached this image:
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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FatalWishes
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
Hurricane DEAN Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
US Watch/Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT34 KNHC 171139
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR 50 MILES...80 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 87 MPH...143 KM/HR...WHILE DOMINICA REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text...MIATCPAT4+shtml/171139.shtml
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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FatalWishes
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | Hurricane DEAN Forecast Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
US Watch/Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT44 KNHC 170853
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007
THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DEAN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN EITHER
SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IMAGERY FROM THE FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE.
THERE ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A RAGGED EYE ON RADAR...AND
THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN AT BEST ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR WITH
DEAN REMAINING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE SEEMINGLY RESPONDED TO THE G-IV JET
MISSION BY SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF DEAN...WITH A
MOTION THAT IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT FROM 12-72 HR. AFTER 72
HR...THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DEAN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS
NOW CALL FOR DEAN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO
NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION
OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY
SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR
DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
WEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT
COULD REMAIN STRONGER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.3N 60.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 125 KT = 144.0 MPH
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text...IATCDAT4+shtml/170853.shtml?
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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FatalWishes
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Looks like crap this morning...
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/fb/k0opgvzb29ppcl4r0rnvq485xvfpvoiw.jpg[/bad img]
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT34 KNHC 171457
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA
TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND
ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
170 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP DEAN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO
5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
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Indy
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This reminds me so much of Katrina. Each model run is slowly shifting the path to the right. Some of the models have it shifted much closer now to Galveston.
Indy has attached this image:
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FatalWishes
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| Quoting Indy - posted on 8/17/2007 at 11:19 |
This reminds me so much of Katrina. Each model run is slowly shifting the path to the right. Some of the models have it shifted much closer now to Galveston.
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Hrmm it reminds me more of Rita...here is Katrina's Track.
I do know what you are saying though. They had Katrina hitting Texas and it totally missed us. Every 4 hours they shifted the track further and further north.
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FatalWishes
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And Here is Rita's track...although it is much farther North...
THis is why I say Dean will hit mid Texas..it is much further South of Rita. I'm thinking Corpus Kristi at this point, but it is too soon to tell. Once it gets in the gulf it will turn north, than NE...at what point it does this is hard to say. At that point we will get a much better idea of where it will land.
FatalWishes has attached this image:
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FatalWishes
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The closest path I can find to Dean is Gilbert in 1988. The second most powerful Atlantic storm at 888 mb and peak sustained winds at 185mph at its strongest point.
Now either Dean will follow Gilberts path or turn North. If it does, then Texas is going to be the target.
So far Dean is a spitting image of Gilbert as far as the track goes. Dean is a month Earlier being it is currently August and Gilbert was in September.
FatalWishes has attached this image:
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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Indy
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I say Katrina because I believe in the earlier model runs it was forecast to hit a particular location but each subsequent run moved it closer and closer to New Orleans. The actual path does mimic Gilbert. With Gilbert the models wanted to turn the storm north but it didn't comply. Lets see if this plays out like Gilbert and stays on the same path the entire time or whether it acts like Katrina and the path shifts further and further with each model run.
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Indy
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Here is the latest Dvorak images. This to me tells the real story of where the hurricane is currently. As impressive as the storm is there is so much potential for further organization. It doesn't have that nice donut around a perfect eye. The center while nasty I am sure has a long way to go. When this thing gets that donut watch out. It will get ugly fast.
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/26/zquq47uvhezm8xdhe76rh2f1btjydvtx.jpg[/bad img]
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Weaseldog
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I'll take Brownsville Texas. |
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FatalWishes
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LOL, covering all your bases huh?
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
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Weaseldog
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Too big of a city? 
Ok, Port Isabel. |
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Indy
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You can see the donut forming.
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/80/vrr0s3my14uvbqkckqbewo1emgxpvc9n.jpg[/bad img]
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posted on 8/16/2007 at 18:40
