| Pages: 1 2 3 4 |
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
Tropical Storm Fay - 2008
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 152039
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS...SIXTH ATLANTIC STORM OF THE SEASON...
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR
THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH
COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES
NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
1008 MB low and they are calling it a tropical storm?
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
There is a good high pressure system over this low but I don't see much in the way of a circulation.
Original Image: satimg.climatepatrol.com
Storm Floater #1 - IR
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
DanG
Administrator
Posts: 5452
Registered: 6/30/2004
Location: SW FL
Member Is Offline
Points: 113876
Mood: Stunned Amazement
|
hey - she might be comin my way |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
Can't she wait until November?
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
DanG
Administrator
Posts: 5452
Registered: 6/30/2004
Location: SW FL
Member Is Offline
Points: 113876
Mood: Stunned Amazement
|
eh - chicks seems to be comin my way -- lately
 |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 152338
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN
PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES NORTHWARD...FOR THE TURK AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR LATITUDE 18.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT
335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER
EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SHIP OBERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING MAINLY OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY IS OVER HISPANIOLA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...18.6 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
They are getting creative. 45mph sustained winds. They increased the storm strength from the 5pm advisory despite having a pressure as high as 1008 mb which is high for a depression.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 160237
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008
...FAY MOVING WESTWARD...APPROACHING HAITI...
AT 11 PM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PORT AU PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ENTIRE NORTH COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE
MACORIS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.8 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 305
MILES...490 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI EARLY
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD WEAKEN SOME WHILE MOVING OVER LAND BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER ON
SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SANTO DOMINGO
RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.7 N...70.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
MattN
Elite Member
Posts: 609
Registered: 5/16/2007
Member Is Offline
Points: 10440
|
1008mb isn't even a good nor'easter.... |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 160554
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM AST SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA...
AT 200 AM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
EXTENDED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE
MACORIS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...95 KM...EAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 260
MILES...415 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING...AND
WILL BE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD WEAKEN SOME WHILE MOVING OVER HISPANIOLA THIS
MORNING...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND ON
SUNDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...18.7 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
DanG
Administrator
Posts: 5452
Registered: 6/30/2004
Location: SW FL
Member Is Offline
Points: 113876
Mood: Stunned Amazement
|
this track should be bothersome to everybody in SW FL
DanG has attached this image:
|
|
|
Aerology
Beginner
Posts: 65
Registered: 5/28/2008
Location: North Central Kansas
Member Is Offline
Points: 650
|
Maps made in January.....
If I were to put total faith in the maps made back in January on my site, I would have two say that Fay will skirt along the southern shore of Cuba, the 17th, 18th and shoot the Yucatan gap on the 19th make a sweeping turn and head into Houston for a landfall late on the 21st, or early 22nd, then be on to Memphis by the 23rd.
Check them out, if you want...
http://www.aerology.com/national.aspx |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 161743
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN HAITI AND CUBA...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA AND ABOUT
175 MILES...280 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL CUBA ON SUNDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE FAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...19.2 N...74.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 162040
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY WEAKER BUT RE-ORGANIZING SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...NEW WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR CUBA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND
SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CANCELED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELED NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES...365 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT FAY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING
HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS WESTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WHILE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...75.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 162348
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...AND FOR CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...320 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
FAY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...70KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FAY IS BECOMING A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS
WESTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 170246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...FAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...
165 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY...AND WILL BE
NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS WESTERN
CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 44 MPH...71 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 52 MPH...83 KM/HR. RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE APPROACHING
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.4 N...76.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 170555
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...FAY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA STRAITS ON
MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...19.6 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
DanG
Administrator
Posts: 5452
Registered: 6/30/2004
Location: SW FL
Member Is Offline
Points: 113876
Mood: Stunned Amazement
|
this track is straight into Charlotte Harbor...
DanG has attached this image:
|
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 171754
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...CORRECTED TO ADD AIRCRAFT PRESSURE...
...FAY MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO
GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA IS
DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES WESTERN
CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.8 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 172040
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...FAY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...MORE
CHANGES TO THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO TARPON
SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205
MILES...335 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND WHEN IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF CUBA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...80.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
Aerology
Beginner
Posts: 65
Registered: 5/28/2008
Location: North Central Kansas
Member Is Offline
Points: 650
|
further comment, now,with both feet in mouth...
If Fay takes the track NOAA is forecasting she will probably get torn up by the continental trough enough to be almost a non event, so the heavy rain, I thought was going to be the hurricane on the west side of the gulf, is just that heat and moisture, that would have made Fay powerful, being spent before she could budget for it. |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
The NHC admits to their dishonesty in the 11pm discussion.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING 45 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY SINCE EARLIER
TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENTLY OBSERVED FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text...MIATCDAT1+shtml/180253.shtml
Doesn't get any better than that.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
MountainManMike
Elite Member
Posts: 932
Registered: 11/7/2007
Location: Durango, CO
Member Is Offline
Points: 15660
Mood: always tired
|
thats awesome indy! |
|
|
DanG
Administrator
Posts: 5452
Registered: 6/30/2004
Location: SW FL
Member Is Offline
Points: 113876
Mood: Stunned Amazement
|
yep - back to this course... cat 1 in to the harbor... about a mile
away from me.
yes Indy - I'll take pictures ! |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 181754
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY |
|
![[*]](/images/corporate/default_icon.gif){kind=icon}
posted on 8/15/2008 at 15:55
