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Indy
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According to wunderground.com the maximum sustained wind observed in Key West where the storm made "landfall" was 36mph. Maximum wind gust was 51mph. 60mph sustained winds? Not even close.
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Indy
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"Buoy" SANF1 which was near the center of circulation reported a sustained wind of 50mph but at 45 meters off the ground. SMKF1 reports 57mph at 49 meters.
KYWF1 which is right by SANF1 only reported a sustained wind of 19mph at the same time SANF1 reported 50mph. KYWF1 is at 6.4 meters. VCAF1 reported a sustained wind of 17mph at the same time SMKF1 reported 57mph. VCAF1 is at 6.4 meters as well. So there is obviously a significant drop in wind speed from 45-50 meters down to 6.4 meters.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 182353
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
...FAY HEADED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE
FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND FAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...25.0 N...81.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 190253
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
...FAY CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS IS DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE
FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...95 KM...SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SITE AT FLAMINGO.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...25.3 N...81.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME
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Indy
Super Administrator
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 190558
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH YET AS FAY APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF FLORIDA......
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS...ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY
WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES...70 KM...SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. A MOTION JUST
EAST OF DUE NORTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WERE RECENTLY REPORTED
AT THE CMAN STATION AT MOLASSES REEF.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...25.5 N...81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Indy
Super Administrator
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This is the National Hurricane Center's dream storm. It will make landfall where very few people live. It is a good distance away from three radar sites so none can get a good picture. There are also no functioning buoys in the area.
Oh yeah. This storm is ripe for an upgrade to hurricane at landfall time. This way there is no reliable instrumentation anywhere around to prove the NHC fudged on the numbers at landfall.
Lets see how strong this storm gets at 5am and maybe 8am if the center hasn't moved completely onshore. Expect a few "miracles".
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Indy
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Marco Island which is near the center of the storm right now is reporting a low of 995 mb which is pretty close to the lowest pressure in the storm. Marco Island has also reported a maximum sustained wind of 26 mph and a wind gust as high as 35 mph.
This comes as no shock to me as this storm has a history of producing winds at the surface that fall far short of NHC reports. If this storm has produced a verifiable sustained wind of 40mph at the surface I'd love to see it. Certainly no 60mph sustained. And certainly no 70mph gusts.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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Indy
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Here is an observation from the hurricane hunter.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
URNT12 KWBC 190704
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/0654Z
B. 25 DEG 37 MIN N
81 DEG 49 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1354 M
D. 48 KT
E. 320 DEG 13 NM
F. 070 DEG 53 KT
G. 320 DEG 11 NM
H. 991 MB
I. 19 C/1547 M
J. 22 C/1559 M
K. 16 C/NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2106A FAY OB 19
MAX FL WND 53 KT NW QUAD 0650Z.
SECOND FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAX 240 DEG 54 KTS AT 065739Z.
SLP FM DROPSONDE.
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
Maximum of 54 KTS at flight level. Using their failed method of surface winds = 90% of FL the surface winds are 48.6 KTS. They'd report that as 55mph. Reality is that with this storm surface winds should be calculated at about 65% of flight level winds. That is how it would have been in the old system with this particular storm. It varied from storm to storm and which this storm the flight level winds have not been reaching the surface at all so you'd go with the lower range of 65%. So 65% of 54 KTS would be 35.1 KTS or an advisory level wind of 40 MPH. That with this storm would be accurate.
If I were issuing the advisory I'd say 40mph sustained winds with gusts to 55mph. Those are numbers I think you will actually find at the surface this this storm.
The numbers would be this low because of the dynamics of this storm. The strong winds are staying up high. That was verified when the storm crossed over the keys and the 6-1/2m and 45ish meter anemometers should significant differences in wind reports in the same areas.
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DanG
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pretty much a non-event here... no winds to speak of, and very little rain.
yawn. |
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Indy
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WTF. Fay forms an eye after a number of hours over land. Pressure remains low and the wind speeds according to the 1pm advisory have increased. (scratches head)
Original Image: satimg.climatepatrol.com
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...FAY REFUSES TO WEAKEN...STRONG WINDS BATTERING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST. THIS
POSITIONS IS VERY NEAR MOORE HAVEN FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD MOVE OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AS FAY MOVES INLAND OVER
FLORIDA. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER
WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR
WITH A GUST OF 78 MPH...125 KM/HR WAS MEASURED IN MOORE HAVEN.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH
MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 100 PM EDT POSITION...26.8 N...81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 300 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 191900
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...FAY CONTINUES TO BATTER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 300 PM EDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES...30 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD MOVE OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS FAY MOVES INLAND OVER FLORIDA. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN FAY MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A WIND GUST OF 78 MPH...125
KM/HR...WAS MEASURED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
DURING THE PAST HOUR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH
MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 300 PM EDT POSITION...27.1 N...81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 192042
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...FAY HEADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM JUPITER SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...
GEORGIA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
95 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING FAY OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT STATION ALONG THE
CENTRAL KISSIMMEE RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 60
MPH...97 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH
MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...27.3 N...81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EDT AND 900 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Indy
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This is a very strange storm. When it was over water the storm was poorly organized and surface winds were next to nothing. The storm moves over land and becomes better organized and stronger.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT41 KNHC 192043
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS
STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR
AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS
KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE
CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION
IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE
AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.
THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 27.3N 81.0W 55 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 80.5W 55 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 80.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 30.0N 81.4W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/1800Z 30.5N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.4N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Indy
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Look at the Melbourne, FL Nexrad Radar. This is the best the storm has looked. It has a complete circulation with storms fully wrapped around an eye. It never had this over water.
Send me a PM for a free 1 year membership to http://www.wunderground.com .
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Indy
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Winds in Melbourne have been sustained near 30mph for a while and winds have gusted as high as 47 mph and the center of circulation is still quite a ways off. Current pressure in Melbourne is 1003mb. Winds in Vero Beach have gusted to 50mph. Winds in Okeechobee are sustained at 38mph with gusts to 58mph. That is a ground based observation.
So far I can't find a reported wind gust of 60mph anywhere but the problem with this storm is that it has moved over areas that are pretty much all swamp. We will get some better numbers in a few hours as the storm gets closer to Melbourne and Vero Beach.
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 192254
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
700 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...FAY CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM EDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING FAY OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 700 PM EDT POSITION...27.5 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 900 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME
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Indy
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According to hurricane hunters the pressure is up to 989mb. Maximum flight level wind of 58kts. That would imply a sustained wind of about 60mph but no such wind has been observed anywhere. I haven't found a 60mph wind gust. Going with the 65% rule instead of 90% rule it would give sustained winds of 41mph which is more accurate with what has been found at the surface. You'd also expect gusts of 55mph which have also been found at the surface.
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 200055
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
900 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...FAY SLOWS DOWN AND WEAKENS OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 900 PM EDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
FAY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR....IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING
FAY OVER WATER ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60
MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT FAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRENGTHEN WHEN
IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 900 PM EDT POSITION...27.5 N...80.9 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 200241
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...FAY WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE OVER FLORIDA..
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR...OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY
WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FAY
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50
MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT FAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRENGTHEN WHEN
IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...27.7 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Indy
Super Administrator
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 200548
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...FAY FINALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED ON THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LATITUDE 27.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 5 MILES...10 KM NORTHWEST OF
SEBASTIAN FLORIDA AND ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS FAY MOVES OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. FAY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AS FAY MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...27.9 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN
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DanG
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... the Return of Fay ...
DanG has attached this image:
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MountainManMike
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dont u guys ever sleep? goodness, lol. |
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DanG
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Pot
Kettle
lol
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Indy
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![[*]](/images/corporate/default_icon.gif){kind=icon}
posted on 8/18/2008 at 15:51
