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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 202031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...WET FAY SOAKING PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...MORE RAIN TO
COME...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...-THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST ABOUT 30
MILES...45 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE FAY
MOVES OVER LAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Indy
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URNT12 KNHC 202217 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 20/22:05:50Z
B. 28 deg 56 min N
080 deg 20 min W
C. 850 mb 1367 m
D. 40 kt
E. 134 deg 51 nm
F. 198 deg 054 kt
G. 133 deg 077 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 17 C/ 1533 m
J. 19 C/ 1524 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 2406A FAY OB 10 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 60 KT NE QUAD 22:17:00 Z
SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY
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It looks like Fay is getting stronger. Radar shows storms have wrapped around the center of circulation and the structure is getting better organized. So it may be in the process of intensifying.
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Indy
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Yes the storm is getting stronger. Here is the 8pm advisory.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 202359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...FAY BACK OVER WATER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LATITUDE
29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE
CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER TONIGHT...BUT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N...80.3 W.
MOVEMENT...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
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Indy
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This Weather Underground user submitted photos from Melbourne, FL and indicated 25" of rain and still falling.
http://www.wunderground.com/...&album_id=10#slideanchor
I don't know if 25" is accurate but it is obviously a lot.
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 210244
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...VERY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
AS FAY SITS JUST OFFSHORE...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FORT
PIERCE FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER
BETWEEN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...60 KM...SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT
OR EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...AND NEAR OR ALONG THE GULF
COAST IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER
WATER TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY TOMORROW...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...28.9 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
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Indy
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At 8:24pm Ponce Inlet, Florida had winds of 72.5 mph. This was obviously part of a severe squall that came through.
http://www.wunderground.com/...h=8&day=20&year=2008 - Ponce Inlet
This is the highest surface wind I've found for this storm at any point. This number is quite significant.
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Indy
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URNT12 KNHC 210231 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 21/02:10:40Z
B. 28 deg 55 min N
080 deg 31 min W
C. 850 mb 1369 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 46 nm
F. 138 deg 059 kt
G. 047 deg 047 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 16 C/ 1527 m
J. 19 C/ 1526 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C50
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 2406A FAY OB 25 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 63 KT N QUAD 02:25:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C, 44 / 18NM FROM FL CNTR
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63 KT flight level using NHC's 90% rule would equal 65mph.
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DanG
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25" of rain ?!!!?
has this been confirmed?
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MountainManMike
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thats pretty amazing but consider mitch years ago had 65 inches though it was in mountainous regions. |
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 210553
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY EDGING TOWARD THE FLORIDA COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES...35 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR...
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND NEAR
THE GULF COAST IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF
FAY REMAINS OVER WATER THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE REPORTS RAINFALL TOTALS OF NEARLY 25 INCHES
IN PARTS OF NORTH MELBOURNE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...29.1 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT...
NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Indy
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| Quote From Source: | Fay could dump 30 inches of rain in some areas of Florida and the National Weather Service said nearly 25 inches had already fallen near Melbourne, just south of Cape Canaveral on the state's central Atlantic coast.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source: http://ap.indystar.com/dynam...ON=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
I know Florida gets a great deal of rain but that is insane even for them. There are some areas around Melbourne that were poorly designed and water floods significantly at 5 or 6 inches.
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Indy
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WTNT31 KNHC 210846
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...
30 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER
OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF NEAR 30 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN FLORIDA.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...29.1 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Indy
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The 5am discussion. I think it is safe to say this storm is a drought buster.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT41 KNHC 210849
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT FAY IS NOT STRENGTHENING.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 62
KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT...WITH PEAK ACTUAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 50 KT FROM A DROPSONDE AND 51 KT FROM THE
SFMR. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 993-994 MB.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.
AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TONIGHT...FAY IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AGAIN JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FAY...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT
STALL...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
WESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A
GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET
GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS ACTUALLY
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME EROSION NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL SUPPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION...THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE WOULD
ARGUE AGAINST MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ASSUMING
THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT IN KEEPING FAY INLAND AFTER
THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 29.1N 80.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 29.4N 81.6W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0600Z 29.6N 82.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/1800Z 30.0N 83.9W 30 KT...ALONG FL GULF COAST
48HR VT 23/0600Z 30.3N 85.1W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 211750
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY BEGINNING TO CROSS THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NEAR FLAGLER BEACH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST...OR VERY
NEAR FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND
LATER TODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER FAY MOVES
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N...81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...VERY HEAVY
RAINS CONTINUE...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST...JUST WEST OF
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. THE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR FLAGLER BEACH AROUND 230 PM EDT...1830 UTC.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N...81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
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DanG
Administrator
Posts: 5452
Registered: 6/30/2004
Location: SW FL
Member Is Offline
Points: 113876
Mood: Stunned Amazement
|
we had more rain today, than Tuesday
 |
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Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 212350
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST...JUST WEST OF
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND BE VERY
NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
Here are some cool videos from Florida.
http://gannett.a.mms.mavenap...ven_referralObject=828692326
http://gannett.a.mms.mavenap...ven_referralObject=828806028
http://gannett.a.mms.mavenap...ven_referralObject=828114844
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 220244
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY STILL DRIFTING WESTWARD AND DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM WEST OF
INDIAN PASS WESTWARD TO DESTIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES...40 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF
FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
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Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
Look at the forecast track from the NHC. If it holds true it is possible the storm could make its 4th and 5th landfall in the state. Chances are it won't happen and the storm will be a wreck but it is just one of those fun facts.
Indy has attached this image:
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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MountainManMike
Elite Member
Posts: 932
Registered: 11/7/2007
Location: Durango, CO
Member Is Offline
Points: 15660
Mood: always tired
|
or it could stay a bit more south and hit new orleans...with the speed its going at right now, think of having that much rain on that city... |
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Aerology
Beginner
Posts: 65
Registered: 5/28/2008
Location: North Central Kansas
Member Is Offline
Points: 650
|
What's in a name?
The Earth had a heliocentric conjunction with Neptune on the 15th of August, increased precipitation in tropical storms is a norm with post conjunction conditions with the outer gas planets.
Earth will be midway between Neptune and Uranus on the 31st of August, will see increased warmth and moisture coming in off of the equator from then till September 13th when Earth has conjunction with Uranus, then heavy precipitation trend till end of September.
Then it just gets cold and stays that way till March...
Gas and heating oil futures investing starts about 20th September, I think.... |
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DanG
Administrator
Posts: 5452
Registered: 6/30/2004
Location: SW FL
Member Is Offline
Points: 113876
Mood: Stunned Amazement
|
Then it just gets cold and stays that way till March...
like we've been saying for some time ... gonna be a baaad winter.
 |
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Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 221745
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
...FAY STILL DRENCHING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA....
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DESTIN...AND FROM
FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF DESTIN TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 70 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL STATIONS OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...70 TO
90 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN OUTER RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...29.7 N...82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
|
|
Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4136
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79820
Mood: Resident Skeptic
|
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 222026
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
...FAY IS NOT IN A HURRY...SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM FLAGLER
BEACH ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DESTIN.
A |
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![[*]](/images/corporate/default_icon.gif){kind=icon}
posted on 8/20/2008 at 17:08
