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DanG
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it might become a cat4 by sunday ...
DanG has attached this image:
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Skillz
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I don't think so, unless it slows down some or goes around Cuba. Once it hits Cuba, it'll knock it's intensity down some. If it gets to Cat 4, I think it'll do it around Monday morning then it's further in the Gulf, maybe Sunday late night; maybe.
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Indy
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It became a category 4.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT32 KNHC 301805
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
...GUSTAV BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...WESTERN EYEWALL DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.
INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST...NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA AND ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE EITHER BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING WESTERN
CUBA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.
THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
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DanG
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| Quote From Source: | Gustav swelled into a fearsome Category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph on Saturday as Cuba raced to evacuate more than 240,000 people and Americans to the north clogged highways fleeing New Orleans.
As much as 80 percent of the Gulf of Mexico's oil and gas production could be shut down as a precaution if Gustav enters as a major storm, weather research firm Planalytics predicted. Oil companies have already evacuated hundreds of workers from offshore platforms.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/2...re_la_am_ca/tropical_weather |
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Skillz
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This storm is strengthening faster than ever, Jesus. Just yesterday it wasn't even a hurricane and now it's a Cat4. Cuba will only slow it down a little bit, seeing as how the part of Cuba it's hitting really doesn't have much in the way as far as mountains. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't get cat5 before it hits the U.S.
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FatalWishes
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Remember Wilma? I think that Hurricane defined what one could do in the short amount of time given the conditions were right.
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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FatalWishes
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| Quoting Skillz - posted on 8/30/2008 at 15:09 |
This storm is strengthening faster than ever, Jesus. Just yesterday it wasn't even a hurricane and now it's a Cat4. Cuba will only slow it down a little bit, seeing as how the part of Cuba it's hitting really doesn't have much in the way as far as mountains. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't get cat5 before it hits the U.S.
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Gustav is crossing the thinnest part of Cuba at the perfect angle...it won't hardly slow it down at all.
FatalWishes has attached this image:
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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FatalWishes
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I don't know why, but CLP5 looks the best to me. Even though its all by itself and 90%+ of the tracks show Gustav hitting Louisiana, CLP5 in Florida just seems more natural of a path.
Lets' face it, I wouldn't want to be anywhere near the Gulf Coast when this things hits. That means from Brownsville Texas to the Florida Keys and every point in between.
FatalWishes has attached this image:
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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DanG
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nope - on its way to F.W.
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thedood
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I would think one of the red ones in the middle heading toward Texas would be the most natural path...
we will see though. If it doesn't go to Texas the CLP5 looks pretty good too.
"The rain it raineth every day, and every night also -- week in and week out, from the rising of the sun to the going down of the same, there is nothing but rain, rain, rain, 'The windows of heaven are opened up.' Pluvius, grieved at some earth-giving wrong, weeps as if he never would dry up." - Overland Press (Olympia, WA), December 1861 |
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FatalWishes
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| Quoting thedood - posted on 8/30/2008 at 16:29 |
I would think one of the red ones in the middle heading toward Texas would be the most natural path...
we will see though. If it doesn't go to Texas the CLP5 looks pretty good too.
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Well we could use the rain for sure. Bring it on. I'll take pics 
They should take the warning labels off of everything and let stupidity sort itself out.
Please check out our new website at www.globalwarmingisnotreal.com |
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT32 KNHC 302053
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
...GUSTAV STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT IMPACTS WESTERN CUBA...
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 500 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 80
MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA. DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE...SINCE WINDS WILL SOON
RAPIDLY INCREASE AS EYEWALL AGAIN PASSES. THE EYE IS ALSO CURRENTLY
CENTERED ABOUT 620 MILES...1000 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS WESTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS
PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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richard583
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-
(From yesterday. - Transition to "Hurricane" status. ..)
North American Surface Analysis
080829_1622_satsfc.gif
080829_1922_satsfc.gif
080829_2222_satsfc.gif
080830_0122_satsfc.gif
___
—> More current, ...
Original Image: www.proxigee.com
Original Image: www.proxigee.com
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/
080830_1115z_us-wv.gif
080830_1715z_us-wv.gif
080830_1115z_us-ir.gif
080830_1715z_us-ir.gif
080829_2145z_us-vis.png
080830_1645z_us-vis.gif
080830_1715z_us-vis.gif
(source .. http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm
(UW-CIMSS "TCTrak" Tropical Cyclone Tracker for Storm 07L)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/
080830_2115z_us-vis.gif
080830_2115z_us-ir.gif
080830_2115z_us-wv.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc18.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc21.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc2.shtml
___
Main ConUS IR, from University of Washington.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loo...r_central+/48h/
— Takes approx. 2 1/2 mins. to load @ Standard DSL. / —> Will update to current, most recent past 48 hours.
(source .. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/)
-Rm(richard583)
23:10z - 080830
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT32 KNHC 302353
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
...GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL IN WESTERN MAINLAND CUBA...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR LOS PALACIOS AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE DURING THE
PASSAGE OF THE EYE...SINCE WINDS WILL SOON RAPIDLY INCREASE AS
EYEWALL AGAIN PASSES. THE EYE IS ALSO CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 570
MILES...915 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND REACH
THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THERE ARE
UNOFFICIAL REPORTS FROM PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WINDS NEAR THESE
ESTIMATES. SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REACH
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AS GUSTAV WAS MAKING LANDFALL WAS 941
MB...27.79 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N...83.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Indy
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It didn't take long but Gustav is about to move back over water again. You really can't find a shorter path across Cuba than what Gustav took.
Original Image: satimg.climatepatrol.com
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MattN
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So. How's that hurricane<-->solar flare link theory working out? |
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Indy
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Gustav is back over water again. That didn't take long. As for solar activity it doesn't seem it had an effect on these storms. Though I think the biggest argument was that solar activity impacted earthquake and volcanic activity.
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MountainManMike
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is it me or is it a bit farther east than predicted? |
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Indy
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT32 KNHC 310239
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
...CORRECTED WARNING SECTION TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...CENTER OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER GUSTAV MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF
VILLA CLARA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...WEST OF
HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 530 MILES...850 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKEN DURING PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT IS
FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 51 MPH...81 KM/HR...
WITH A GUST TO 67 MPH...108 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ALONG THE
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS
GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4118
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79445
Mood: Resident Skeptic
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The NHC discussion on Gustav talks about the current forecast track being just east of the previous forecast. This isn't good for New Orleans. It is going to be a really close call. If the intensity forecast is correct (which the NHC says is a low confidence forecast) the storm should be making landfall in Louisiana with sustained winds somewhere between 140 and 150mph. This would make the storm much stronger than Katrina at landfall. It also puts the city on the strong side of the storm and not the weak side. I'd be getting out of Dodge right now.
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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thedood
Member
Posts: 208
Registered: 3/4/2008
Location: Portland, OR
Member Is Offline
Points: 3505
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I can just see all the global warming acolytes writing their blogs and news reports blaming Gustav and Hanna on "thee ever increasing" CO2 levels.
Not until the damage on the US is done with though that is.
"The rain it raineth every day, and every night also -- week in and week out, from the rising of the sun to the going down of the same, there is nothing but rain, rain, rain, 'The windows of heaven are opened up.' Pluvius, grieved at some earth-giving wrong, weeps as if he never would dry up." - Overland Press (Olympia, WA), December 1861 |
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MountainManMike
Elite Member
Posts: 927
Registered: 11/7/2007
Location: Durango, CO
Member Is Online
Points: 15610
Mood: always tired
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those blogs r already written...just waiting for names to fill in the blanks. lol. |
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richard583
Beginner
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Location: Paradise CA
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Points: 2460
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-
Original Image: www.proxigee.com
080830_1945z_2315z.mov - (3.2MB)
(".mov" file, playable with QuickTime™[/color].)
080830_1945z_vis.png
080830_2215z_vis.png
080831_0345z_us-ir.gif
080831_0345z_us-wv.gif
(source - http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html )
-Rm(richard583)
05:03z - 080831
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richard583
Beginner
Posts: 93
Registered: 3/11/2008
Location: Paradise CA
Member Is Offline
Points: 2460
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-
Original Image: www.proxigee.com
0808_3004_3103z_satsfc.mov
(".mov" file, playable with QuickTime™. @ May be moved along one frame at a time with clicking on controller's fast forward feature button.)
080830_2215_satsfc.gif
080831_0345_satsfc.gif
-Rm(richard583)
05:37z - 080831
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Indy
Super Administrator
Posts: 4118
Registered: 6/24/2004
Member Is Offline
Points: 79445
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT32 KNHC 310548
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
...GUSTAV MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA THIS MORNING.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA. THIS WATCH AND WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE PANHANDLE
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD
TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 485
MILES...780 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WHILE GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER CUBA...IT
IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY AFTER
THAT TIME...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. A NOAA C-MAN OBSERVATION SITE AT PULASKI SHOAL IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 56 MPH...91
KM/HR...WITH GUSTS TO 62 MPH...100 KM/HR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER OBSERVATIONS IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN
CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...23.5 N...84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
| | Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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posted on 8/30/2008 at 09:24
