DanG
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Trouble Brewing for Florida ?
| Quote From Source: |
A developing area of low pressure near the Bahamas will bring increasingly wet weather to parts of Florida Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers will continue to increase across central and South Florida. The heaviest bands of rain will be along the east coast of Florida, mainly south of Cape Canaveral. A few areas with could receive two to four inches of rainfall by Wednesday. The combination of building high pressure well to the north and the developing low pressure near the Bahamas will result in gusty north to northeast winds in excess of 30 mph along the Southeast coast. Steering currents will remain weak and erratic through Wednesday off the Florida coast with several tracks possible. One sure thing is that this system will be a slow mover, if not stationary at times.
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Source URL: http://headlines.accuweather...amp;traveler=0&article=1
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DanG
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| Quote From Source: | A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW.. IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source URL: http://www.intellicast.com/L...icalOutlook&prodnav=none |
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DanG
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
Tropical Depression SIXTEEN
Public Advisory
AT 11 AM EDT... 1500Z...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND... AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA THE ABACOS... AND BIMINI. AT 11 AM EDT... 1500Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES... 20 KM... EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.
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FatalWishes
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Tropical Storm Nate forms in Atlantic
| Quote From Source: | MIAMI, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Nate formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Monday and was forecast to edge toward Bermuda, while Hurricane Maria strengthened farther north in the open Atlantic.
Nate is the 14th tropical storm of the already ferocious Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30.
At 11 p.m. (0300 Tuesday GMT) Nate was centered about 320 miles (515 km) south-southwest of Bermuda and moving very slowly west. Forecasting models varied widely and the U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm could meander a bit and then loop northeast near Bermuda by the weekend.
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Source URL: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/NASU90501.htm |
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FatalWishes
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OH, 'OPHELIA'
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 061444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...
AT 11 AM EDT... 1500Z... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT ISLAND... AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA THE ABACOS... AND BIMINI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 AM EDT... 1500Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES... 20 KM... EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB... 29.74 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION... 26.5 N... 78.6 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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Indy
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The water is very warm in the area. Question remains how the storm to the east of it will effect its growth and movement. When you have two storms so close together they often have a weird impact on each others movement. There is actually a term for it but the name slips my mind.
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Indy
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As of last check the GFDL model has #16 close to New Orleans in 72 hours.
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FatalWishes
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Ophelia threatens Florida?...we'll see.....
| Quote From Source: | (CNN) -- Freshly named Tropical Storm Ophelia was moving slowly toward the northeastern Atlantic coast of Florida on Wednesday, forecasters said, threatening to drench the state with up to 8 inches of rain in some areas, possibly within 24 hours.
Ophelia intensified to a tropical storm early Wednesday, with maximum sustained winds of near 40 mph and higher gusts. As of 5 a.m. Wednesday, the storm's center was located about 105 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. It was moving north-northwest at near 8 mph and was expected to continue in that direction, slow down and possibly strengthen slightly within the next 24 hours.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Agency: CNN
Source URL: http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/07/tropical.weather/ |
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FatalWishes
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
000
WTNT41 KNHC 070908
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
DATA FROM NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE OPHELIA HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED... BUT IT STILL REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SURFACE REPORTS OF 33 KT FROM DRIFTING BUOY 41542... LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 36-44 KT BETWEEN 10000 FT AND 12000 FT. THE HIGHEST RECON WIND REPORT HAS BEEN 42 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/07... BASED ON THE LAST 3 RECON POSITIONS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD. THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE OPHELIA SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD... AND MAKE A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP EAST OF FLORIDA BY DAY 5. ONLY THE GFDL... SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM... AND ECMWF MODELS TAKE OPHELIA WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF. HOWEVER... THEY DO SO ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND ALSO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THOSE MODEL FORECASTS... AND THAT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RISING MORE QUICKLY ALONG THE GULF COAST RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH... SUGGESTS THAT THE GFDL AND ECMWF MOELS ARE BUILDING TOO MUCH RIDGING TOO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ERODE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND PUSH OPHELIA EASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA BY 36-48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS... POSSIBLE LANDFALL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. OPHELIAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS... SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS... THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A NARROW 200 MB RIDGE AXIZ WHILE REMAINING OVER 29C SSTS... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.
FORECASTER STEWART
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Latest Infared Loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html
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creekchub00
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The GFDL model doesn't have a handle on Ophelia at all. The storm is already north and east of the GFDL Forecast. The loop is becoming the consensus big time. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS all predict a loop, and the CMC isn't far behind IMO.
Wait about 2 more runs and the GFDL should finally get things right.
It is slowly but surley moving right, and will more then likely show a loop as well at some point.
I will post a forecast/prognostication tonight.
I will start blogging! 8O |
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FatalWishes
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| Quoting creekchub00 - posted on 9/7/2005 at 14:18 |
The GFDL model doesn't have a handle on Ophelia at all. The storm is already north and east of the GFDL Forecast. The loop is becoming the consensus big time. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS all predict a loop, and the CMC isn't far behind IMO.
Wait about 2 more runs and the GFDL should finally get things right.
It is slowly but surley moving right, and will more then likely show a loop as well at some point.
I will post a forecast/prognostication tonight.
I will start blogging!
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I remember last year when Jeanne did the same thing..although she was much further out. I'm trying to find the discussions, and weather patterns at the time. |
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FatalWishes
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Strengthens
Thursday September 8, 2005 2:01 PM
By RON WORD
Associated Press Writer
| Quote From Source: | JACKSONVILLE BEACH, Fla. (AP) - Tropical Storm Ophelia strengthened off Florida's Atlantic coast early Thursday, menacing one of the few spots spared serious damage from the six hurricanes that have hit the state in 13 months.
Ophelia, with sustained 60 mph winds, stalled offshore about 70 miles east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, but forecasters said it was impossible to say what path the storm would take, or whether it would reach hurricane strength.
"We have to wait and see what (Ophelia) is going to do. The possibilities are endless," said Steve Letro, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Jacksonville.
| | Click source url to view entire story. |
Source Agency: Associated Press
Source URL: http://www.guardian.co.uk/wo...tory/0,1280,-5263948,00.html |
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FatalWishes
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Round and Round and Round she goes....where she'll end up? Nobody knows...But she is now a Hurricane....
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT41 KNHC 082045
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB BY DROPSONDE AND THE DROP HAD SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 KT... SUGGESTING THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT VALUE. BASED ON THESE DATA... OPHELIA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE HAS WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST... IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...
OPHELIA CONTINUES TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREAS... AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... BUT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFDL MODEL IS NO LONGER AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING OPHELIA TURNING WESTWARD BY 4-5 DAYS... HOWEVER IT IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ONE DOING SO. THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS A CLOCKWISE LOOP BUT DOES NOT TAKE OPHELIA NEARLY SO FAR WEST AS THE GFDL. SINCE THE TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS... I FEEL IT IS BEST TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT WESTWARD MOVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE NEED TO SEE WHETHER SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE WESTWARD TRACK AT THE LONGER RANGE.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST DUE TO AN EXPENSION OF THE WIND FIELD AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE CIRCULATION... AND NOT BECAUSE OF ANY EXPECTED SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.
FORECASTER PASCH
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FatalWishes
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 082045
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... STILL NOT MOVING..
AT 5 PM EDT... 2100Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA...
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION... 28.6 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT... STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.
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Indy
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We need to rename this topic to like...
Trouble brewing for Florida - Part xxx (xxx = some number) lol
"I think God gives us children so death won't come as such a disappointment." - Two and a Half Men |
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FatalWishes
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LOL, Might as well make a Florida Tropic Topic 
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
000
WTNT31 KNHC 090835
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
...OPHELIA WEAKENS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION... 29.3 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD... NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.
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FatalWishes
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT41 KNHC 090906
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING OPHELIA SINCE 02Z... AND NO STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WINDS HIGHER THAN 50 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THERE WAS ONE DROPSONDE NEAR 05Z WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 58 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS... AND A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.
OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NOW... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/5. OPHELIA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST... WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP LIFT OPHELIA SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO... BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE OPHELIA BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET HAVE BEEN INGESTED INTO THE 00Z MODELS... AND WHETHER BY COINCIDENCE OR CONSEQUENCE... MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST... TAKING OPHELIA WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN 4-5 DAYS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS STORM... I HAVE ONLY MADE A MODEST WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT WHICH AREAS MIGHT ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY OPHELIA... BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THIS CYCLONE TO THE COAST AND THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS DICTATES THAT INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL NEED TO MONITOR OPHELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OPHELIA MAY HAVE REMAINED STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO BRING UP COOLER WATERS EVEN OVER THE GULF STREAM. HOWEVER... THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING AND ITS UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. OPHELIA SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT QUITE A BIT BELOW THE GFDL... WHICH MAKES OPHELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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FatalWishes
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Wow, all we need is a Cat 5 to wipe out the Carolinas now...or Georgia, or Northern Florida.....This has been a strange year. Nature has been smokin dat azz world wide. |
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FatalWishes
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
000
WTNT31 KNHC 092025
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
...OPHELIA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...
INTERESTS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 092025
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT OPHELIA HAS A CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED 983 MB... 72-KNOT WINDS AT 700 MB... A FEW 62-KNOT WINDS MEASURED BY THE SFMR AND A 10-N MI DIAMETER CIRCULAR EYE. FOR ACADEMICS... PERHAPS IT IS NECESSARY TO HAVE ONE OR TWO MORE KNOTS TO MAKE A OPHELIA A HURRICANE... BUT THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY... SO OPHELIA IS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE NOW. THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OPHELIA... ONCE THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS WESTWARD TURN. A GRADUAL STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED... BUT OPHELIA IS KEPT AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. HOWEVER... TO ERR BY ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE... DUE TO OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING RAPID INTENSITY CHANGE. OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO STOP AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF EACH MODEL IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA. WE ARE PUTTING ALL THE BETS IN THE FORMATION OF THE HIGH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... WE ARE NOT GOING AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS THE GFDL AND NOT AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS THE GFS. IN FACT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO.
FORECASTER AVILA
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FatalWishes
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| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT31 KNHC 102340
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION... 31.8 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD... DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.
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_______________________________________________________
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: | 000
WTNT41 KNHC 102127
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005
OPHELIA IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 130 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING... AND THE OCEAN IS A LITTLE BIT COOLER DUE TO THE UPWELLING. THEREFORE... ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. IN FACT... NEITHER SHIPS NOR THE GFDL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE ABOVE 80 KNOTS.
OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE... JUST A LITTLE NORTHEAST OR NORTHWARD DRIFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THEREAFTER... I MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS HAVE INCREASED A LOT SINCE THE LAST RUN. BUT IN GENERAL... LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO RIGHT WITH MOST OF THE TRACKS NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE GFDL WHICH IS BRINGING THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THIS IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN. DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE... THE AREA OF HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME... I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR TONIGHT'S MODEL RUN WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DATA FROM THE NOAA JET. I WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY DO NOT SHIFT BACK TO THE LEFT LIKE THEY DID LAST NIGHT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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posted on 9/5/2005 at 15:19
