Hrmm I went to look at the "today or current view" of the gulf stream and I get this...

http://www.deos.tudelft.nl/altim/gulfstream/?css=large


Object not found!
The requested URL was not found on this server. The link on the referring page seems to be wrong or outdated. Please inform the author of that page about the error.
If you think this is a server error, please contact the webmaster
Error 404
www.deos.tudelft.nl
Tue 17 Apr 2007 03:25:47 PM CEST
Apache/2.0.40 (Red Hat Linux)

Most recent image I can find is April 9th

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/

You guys know how I feel about this, it's the biggie I tell ya !

I believe this was on Jan 17 of 2002?

Looks like it was chopped up and spit out.

http://earth.esa.int/services/pg/samples/pgersaltura.html

Fatal that image isn't current. Its actually 5 years old I believe. But notice how that image looks nothing like the other one you posted? They changed how they report the data a couple of years ago. The current got so hard to detect they had to come up with something different. Also note that first image looks nothing like what the SST map shows.

Yes I corrected the date....hit refresh

I found these.. dated 04-16-07

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag143.html

and this..

and another sst

That is a HUGE chunk of cold ass water sitting off the upper east coast.

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag442.html

?

Fatal.. not much of a gulf stream is it?

Dan... notice there is little difference now in water temps between the Atlantic and Pacific?

From what I have found and seen....there is no gulf stream.

Not just "not much", there is NO gulf stream at ALL.

I am curious what happened to the latest images on some sites? Why is there not only no data, but no site?

Also, I wonder if the government built up AL Gore and global warming to throw the good citizens in the US and world to off the "ice age" trail. I hate conspiracy theories, but it would seem to me that the gulf stream stopping should be big news. I don't think anybody has noticed but us here. Those in the North and East Coast are probably aware something is amiss but probably do not know why.

I know this year has been cool. In fact April has been downright cold..not just cool. I'm not ready to throw in the towel and quit my day job. If this was June or July I'd be more frightened. The price of fuel has me thinking they know something we don't. It keeps going up with no explanation.

What is fascinating is the complete absence of any discussion of the Gulf Stream shutting down in the news media or by'climate/oceanographers/etc scientists'. All discussion is by non-official people.

Yesterday I spoke with the Chief editor of the Seattle Times and he logged onto DEOS as we spoke and I explained to him what differences to look for. See this link for my explanation of how to see the differences. http://www.no1stcostlist.com/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=17
We are phone acquaintences through my calling on local issues and he has used some of my ideas in his editorials.

Remember when it was reported that the 'pipes' of heavy dense water stopped sinking two years ago; yet not one scientist involved made the obvious prediction that if the sinks have stopped; then the Gulf Stream must stop in the near future.

Our 'establishments' are swimming down the 'Denial' river, and they will take all of us right over the cliff. We must publicly start to cooperate if any us expect to personally survive this. Many hands make lighter work. The No 1st Cost List www.no1stcostlist.com is how we can learn who we can trust to help each other in our hour of need.

Again this 'stopping' is related to and is confirming of a unfortunately a certain worse planet-wide environmental threat I deduced must exist back in 1991. Our planet is trying to save itself. To do so, most must die or 'simulate death' at the right time. An 'instant ice age' and the resulting 'super storms' would be a big step in that direction. To ensure survival we must also cooperate to do the simulation under trying conditions. www.no1stcostlist.com July 17, 2007 is when the s--- is really going to hit the fan so we have time to prepare.

Dan

Yes, we've talked about the importance of the Atlantic Current before and agree if it pauses (or stops!) it will be big... Huge.

July 17, 2007 ?
I'm not familiar with that being a doom date.

Todays pic

[bad img]http://www.climatepatrol.com/satimage/xr23120t5kkrbhzw2mhp8aj27saew2d0.jpg[/bad img]

[bad img]http://www.climatepatrol.com/satimage/mm0zr990636zuk15wn87f0eu3l5v97fn.jpg[/bad img]

Interesting blob of cold water forming between 45 & 60 west and 30 & 45 north.

'July 17, 2007 ?
I'm not familiar with that being a doom date." Dan G

It is however when the effects of the Gulf Stream stopping should start being dramatically felt. The Doom date is July 16, 2009 unless something is done. See no1stcostlist.com

Question: does anybody know where you can get the 'current velocities' measured by buoys yhat are moored at the North and South tips of England. I used to have the URLs years ago and can not find. These velocities, especially with a daily history going back a year or so would quickly tell us when the Stream actually stops with respect to England and Europe.

Hi causeiambetta,

Quote:
Unless prevented, our sun will explode sending out a great lance of pure energy, vaporizing Earth on July 16, 2009. For how we prevent it, step inside.




It is a for real prediction. Go finish reading the science behind it. Summary of arguement with observations published in major Scientific literature to back up every aspect of the theoretical chain of cause and effect.

We are physical Spirits that build and trot bodies around. Spirits have been rumored to exist before. We move bodies by splitting particles. One half partice intitiates movement in body, other half= Anti-matter is cost. We spirits figured out a way to park the 'cost = A-M' in the future with respect to Earth. The bill has come due. You don't think there is a free lunch forever do you?

As I said above, evidence to prove every aspect of the prediction. Since it can be prevented, I am obligated to make you say, 'What the hell" and then cause you to reread the site no1stcostlist.com Times awasting

Dan

Very nice explanation: http://karisable.com/slattery/iceage.htm

Might explain this then...


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18185276/

and

http://www.iceagenow.com/Sealers_Trapped_in_Ice.htm

I find it amazing that 1 month ago there were reports that the people on these same 100 boats were bitching about the lack of ice destroying their seal hunts, yet 1 month (later) closer to summer and the sun up 12 hours longer per day there is now so much ice they are trapped like rats waiting to die in the crushing grip of ice that was NOT there 1 month ago when they set out. Its so bad that one of the Coast Guard ice crusher rescue boats is also trapped in this new ice flow. So what has happened during the last month that in an area of NO ice where there should be ice, now suddenly has ice?

Gulf stream disruption?

Current image

[bad img]http://www.climatepatrol.com/satimage/nziuagj806nvaj050a286mszozsjejpr.jpg[/bad img]

and another one, i'd swear this is the same image, different date.

On the -20 degree longitude and 65 degree lattitude right in the middle of the cove there is less ice than previously, same as with the -35 long and 65 lat in that cove and so on with the -155 long and 55 lat.

However about 58 degrees longitude and 65 degrees lat above East Canda that ice flow seems to be advancing if you look at that C shaped flow. It is without a doubt moving forward down the Western side of Southern Greenland.

Interesting, very very interesting. It is stoping then starting then stoping. Wonder when it will just stop for a long period of time? We will see.

What I failed to notice was Antarctica....

along the -65 lat and the -45 and -65 degree longitudes...notice how the ice is advancing between the image posted on the 16th and todays pic.

Also observe the massive change on the -65 lat and the +45 and +65 longitudes....in fact the whole ice cap seems to be advancing out... I suppose this is to be expected since summer is over. I believe summer is from October- February. I am curious to see how far out the ice cap reaches this year compared to the last few years though.

Just wanted to add that the UK has had the WARMEST april since records began. How does that fit?

Research from Wood's Hole is showing from sedimentary analysis that the slowing of the Gulf Stream corresponded to the "Little Ice Age" period in Europe. What still isn't clear is exactly why it slowed.

The Gulf Stream carrying warm water to the North Atlantic slowed about 10 per cent in the Little Ice Age from 1200 to 1850, said a US study published on Wednesday that may give clues to the effects of modern global warming."......more ice skating there

http://technocrat.net/d/2006/12/3/11703

I think a innerglacier period like the midevil warm period melted the ice,,,then the gulf stream slowed. Also with the fact of less solar output. Then you had a ice age.

chart...

That graphic goes well to show how much disruption even a 0.5c temperature change can make on global weather patterns.

Ah the beauty of having this image database.

April 29, 2006

[bad img]http://www.climatepatrol.com/satimage/k9mi65oux0l8mh5xsphm357sqgkdsb2w.jpg[/bad img]

April 23, 2007

[bad img]http://www.climatepatrol.com/satimage/sigvoyfkjidci8i3mhp8v6vbcx61nnd2.jpg[/bad img]

Sometime in 2006 they went to smoothed images. That is why the quality of the images varies so much.

If you don't think there was a significant gulf stream disruption then compare these two images....

[bad img]http://www.climatepatrol.com/satimage/35f3zbiwnl88sdcngzl1x2p1snlepuqp.jpg[/bad img]

[bad img]http://www.climatepatrol.com/satimage/k2kbe6foe122j78f6mgnrf9hw5krs89f.jpg[/bad img]

Well this clearly shows there was a disruption

And this latest SST shows a remarkable difference from the last one I posted, there is improvement. The south ice cap is advancing, and the warmer waters are slowly advancing north above the equator. There was no doubt a disruption though. It would appear things are beginning to wind up and start again...but then again...will it start back up or is this it?

At DEOS http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/#fig1 You can count four(4) streams off of Gulf Stream headed South. Only two existed marginally four years ago.

Starting at very lower left, 1. a stream goes South under the Bermuda Islands(the small white worm shapes), this is a permanent feature going back four years.
2. A stream to right of one going South, it is also permanent but has become much more extreme as it originates from an eddy above it sucking flow from Stream. This eddy did not exist until about a month ago.
3. Further right, from 55 to 65 degrees originating from a pair of large eddies above is a combination of arrows going South.
4.Far right, Stream at last 'break' point(green/blue/green), the left side of break flows decisively south, while the last section of Stream eddies above it at upper right corner of picture.

Clearly the actual area of stream shown(total white-red-green area) has decreased decisively versus four years ago, and the ratio of red/green has decreased.

The only conclusion is at least a 60% plus decline in flow. We were at 146 SV(million cubic meters a second) 20 plus years ago. Ergo, we are down in the 60 SV range.

TEST; Compare total white/red/green surface area from 20 years ago to now and also compare such DEOS areas with the same volume measurements done at same place the initial volume measurement was done.. By measuring the white/red/green area shown in DEOS pictures on the dates where the actual volumes have been measured with buoys, e.g. the reported in December 2005 buoy measurement that show 30% decline from same volume buoy measurments done over previous 12 years; I predict we will get a good correlation of total white/red/green surface area to actual volumes measured. I think there were at least four such measurements taken.

Dan no1stcostlist.com

I know one thing, we are way below average for temps here in Texas this close to summer.

5-04-2007 This NOAA link gives a larger picture of the Atlantic and Gulf Stream flows. The 14 Km show the greatest detail. Unfortunately it does not disconfirm the Stream weakening. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/sst_anal_fields.html

A ToDo for someone. They have historical archives and I do not have the time to get them out and compare with the present day pictures. Who wants to volounteer and post to no1stcostlist.com and also Climate Patrol site.

Compare the two

The temps in the Atlantic appear to be getting cooler. There is still a large mass of cold water off the New York Coast, and if you look at the East coast of Africa, the temps there are dropping. Doesnt look like the gulf stream is moving at all.

[bad img]http://www.climatepatrol.com/images/attachments/latest_sst_187.gif[/bad img]

Compare with last pic

http://www.climatepatrol.com/images/attachments/sst_677.anom_677.gif

5-08-07 See a stopped Gulf Stream. Pasted from no1stcostlist.comr

This is 5-04-07 NOAA sea surface temperature picture for Earth: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km5000.gif is NOAA 50 km temperature picture of world.

This is the 14 km picture of NOrth Atlantic: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km14fna00.gif

Both show the Gulf Stream not going across Atlantic. The 14Km confirms the DEOS site showing the GS starting to curl South. Above all, I see no evidence of a warmer stream of water continuing past 40 degrees West. All you see is a constant color shade. While west of 40 degrees West in 14 KM picture and also on 50 KM sea surface temperature map, the GS shows up clearly.

Here is DEOS http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/#fig1

Finally here is URL for Cryosphere Today = ice coverage of Earth: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ While it is under 29 year mean by about 900,000 square Km, it is not melting as fast as last year, and has in fact hesitated in its melt off. Too soon to say anything else. It is updated daily and there are historical archives to peruse.

Well dan, it looks stopped to me, I dont know why more ppl are not talking about this.

IF it stays stopped for any length of time, it will be impossible
to ignore.

Look at this bad boy....is this odd or what?


** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

ya know, seemingly unrelated stories sometimes add up.
the arctic seal in FL, the T.S. running in reverse, think about them
and look at the above image...

peace,
DanG

I fixed it.

A friend called me to point out that Andrea had formed right next to where the GS is now curling South. I had not heard about the storm.

I had noticed that the eddy that formed about 5 weeks ago in the DEOS pictures above the Bermuda islands in DEOS pictures had weakened in last week. Now I know why, the storm forming was sucking all the warmth from the Southward flow of water from GS that is now pooling below it in DEOS pictures.

May 10, 2007 DEOS pictures show flows inceasing to the South while the NOAA 14 Km sea temp pictures show this pooling very clearly now.

PREDICTION: East Cosat is going to get humdinger(s) of a hurracaine(s) this year and that more storms will spring into being in same area North of Bermuda.



I will bet you that there has never been a tropical storm formed that near the Florida coast in our meterological records going back over 100 years.

http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=5/9/2007&Cat=9&Num=16

Poland lost 80%+ of Apple crop plus other losses in earlier freezes in other fruit crops.

Very late for a frost even at 50 degrees to 54 degrees north.

Absolutely no discussion as it relates to wider weather problems in Europe. These freezes did not affect other countries. Sweden is due North across Baltic.

Strange thing is I didn't see this anywhere on the local news.

I see no improvement. If you look at the pic I posted in April http://www.climatepatrol.com/images/attachments/latest_sst_187.gif and todays pic the Atlantic IS GETTING COOLER. All you have to do is compare the water between Africa and South America.

Open two browsers and open a pic in each one and switch back and forth.

Anybody doubt the currents are not screwed up??????? I'd like to hear their theory because something is seriously wrong.

Look at the north ice cap on both sides of Greenland...its moving south.....its growing.....we are about 15 days from June.

I feel there is something totally wrong at this point. This was not caused by some low pressure system or weather anomaly. These pics are 1 month apart. That is too much time....something big is happening.

I'm not saying its the end of the earth or life as we know it but I'd like to see things getting warmer by next month. Around the end of June or the beginning of July we have our longest day and everyday past that gets shorter...doesn't give us much time to warm things up.

I am going to go get drunk

You are doing a great job keeping up on this stuff. It is a bit odd that the water is cooling off of Africa. Lets see if that trend continues or holds firm.

BTW can you drink for me too? I'm out.

SW FL
this weekend
I'll buy for both of ya


well - the offer is there.

Well this paints a prettier picture compared to the last one...
http://www.climatepatrol.com/images/attachments/sst_994.anom_994.gif

I cannot explain the mass of cold water off of New York, nor the cooling water on the pacific side of Northern South America nor the cool water in the Atlantic between Africa and South America.

Latest SST

Ice on the West side of Greenland is now receding, but the East side continues to advance. In fact all the way along the 75 lat seems to be advancing. I see no improvement in temps along the African coast.

Looks like it is trying to stutter up and start...

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **


Compare with this last one we posted

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

I tell you guys - this is the 600 lb gorilla.
the nice thing about Global Warming (finally) being in the news, is keeping track of the Canadian / Greenland Glaciers.
the cold, fresh melt is the key... and the Atlantic flow is the lock.

http://no1stcostlist.com/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=17

They are at top of article listed in order.

The Cryosphere Today is one of them. Ice cover not melting off as fast as last year, but still faster than 29 year mean.


The West Coast is also quite cold off Wahington, Oregon coast.

We need to look at archival footage of same dates from last two years for all the Big sea temp maps.

Of Course GS is absolutely stopped. Look at GS north link in above list. The Sargasso sea is way above normal temperature. You can see the water pooling here that normally went to Europe.

East Coast is going to get a humdinger of a storm later this year.

East Coast is going to get a humdinger of a storm later this year

I have NO doubt of that.

The GS pulses and these are getting shorter and weaker. Notice the break red/greeen/red color pattern forming at lower left corner. The first time I have noticed a 'break' forming so low.

The upper right corner is also weaker than ever before.

The Sargasso Sea is warming rapidly. I hope someone can search the archives. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/sst_anal_fields.html

It says there are archives, but i confess my computer inadequacies at figuring out how we can get past years pictures say of North American 14 KM temp maps to compare with present.

Also http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag389.html shows Sargasso Sea warming nicely and GS fading. Archives too.

See http://no1stcostlist.com/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=17

for list of all links.

Supposedly professional climatologists look at these pictures, but clearly they are not "seeing", or they don't actually look, or they are being suppressed.

Last week an amazing article in NYT claim that major climatologists said Ocean Conveyer was very robust and that Greenland would have to melt almost completely to stop GS.

Well Greenland still has 95% of its ice and the GS has stopped.
Suppressed or well bought and paid for is my geuss.

This reminds me of the scene from Monty Pythons "Life of Brian" when the leaders of a sinking land stood on there tippy toes chanting "The Waters not rising" over and over as their noses went under the waves.

Warnings and Warning labels assume literate rationality on the part of a societies citizens. There is an assumption that makes an ass of U and me.

Latest...

This certainly shows more cooling in the Atlantic from the last one

I am not sure if you can call this an improvement

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **


From this posted on the 19th

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

I may be off base here, but isn;t the tounge of really cold water extending down the eastern seaboard to the NC/VA border unusual for being almost June?

Flipping back and forth between May 26, 2006 image and May 26, 2007 image, I see 3 differences.

1) The Gulf of Mexico is cooler in May '07.
2) The water off the coast of NC/VA/DE is cooler in May 07.
3) The tounge of warm Gulf stream current was much more pronounced in 'May '06.

The overall warmth of the northern Atlantic looks about the same as is did a year ago though.

When the British Isles start feeling like Canada - will anyone notice?
perhaps not even then, if the stock market is up and american idol is on...

sigh

BTW did you see a 17 year old won Idol?

NO - I remain blissfully ignorant

The Met Office’s Robin Downton said: “The air is so cold as Britain is receiving winds from the Arctic.”
ya know - I've stopped saying Told Ya So - it's no fun anymore.

Well, April was indeed warm over there. But I checked the weather today for London and looks like a balmy 46 degrees and rainy. And looks like the wether for the restof the week won't get above ~55F.

Not a real warm start to June.

Well if this isn't damning proof that the gulf stream has...stopped...then I don't know what will be. I guess when the north is buried under 15 stories of snow then they will notice.
Then again, probably not unless they can figure out how to profit from it.

The next ice age is going to have to time itself between "survivor" and American Idol or it will never get noticed.

The next ice age is going to have to time itself between "survivor" and American Idol or it will never get noticed.
another great quote !

I'm going to paraphrase a quote from a rather B rate end of the world movie called Ice. Dr. Norman Kistler played by Udo Kier argues with this scientific nemesis Dr. Golding & Dr. Tyson (played by John Bourgeois and Elias Zarou) that they are going to sit there and argue the "shades of distinction between cataclysm and apocalypse while the country is being destroyed."

Movie Details: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0160393/

During this last 7 days several cold spots have formed in the same area which the Gulf Stream velocity maps have shown a southern diversion of the Atlantic current.

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

Here is the corresponding DEOS surface current map:


Original Image: rads.tudelft.nl

If you compare the maps you can see the two regions where the cold water is in the same locations as the southernly bleed-off. In fact, between May 14th and the 20th, a second southern flow branched off about 200 miles west of the first. As you can see, along the coast of the U.S. the Gulf Stream is still warm and moving, but it apparently being blocked by this cold water flowing in from the north.

If you look at the Atlantic weather right now, you will see that the Eastern U.S. coast is baking in the 90's F, but in Ireland and England the temperatures are unusually cool (as low as the 30's F at night). In fact Europe has received wild weather in the last 48 hours with winds on the coast of France at 77mph.

IMHO, this is the most disturbing thing I've seen yet. To quote the movie The Day After Tomorrow, "I think its happening ..."

Unlike Hollywood though, this shutdown is in slow-motion, and I believe we are in for a rather drawn-out weather shift ... I HOPE.

Welcome aboard Avastar. I think the current really thins out at about 55 and 60 west. Before the data reporting method changed you wouldn't even be able to see that current. It basically blends in with the general movement of the surrounding waters.

BTW this is what the gulf stream images looked like before the reporting method was changed from relative to absolute.

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

Thanks for the welcome Indy. Yes, I agree it thins out, but I'm more concerned about the sudden appearance of 13C water (that blue dot right in the middle of the Gulf Stream) welling up out in he middle of nowhere on May 21st, then on the 24th and 25th. This is to far south west to be part of he Labrador Current.

Here is what it looked like yesterday:

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

If I had to make a guess about that spot it would be that the current has gone below the surface a bit and upwelled some colder water.

BTW an ocean buoy database is on my list of things to do for the site.

too damn funny -- re-read SuperStorm - one odd reading, then another...

You're laffing right ??

I am in the Uk & it is freezing at the moment.Just back from camping the holiday weekend,traditionally daytime temps are around 20-25 degrees C this year no more than 8 degrees C with a freezing wind.It was near 30 degrees C 4 weeks ago
People in the UK do not pay any attention to the gulf stream even the media reports are way behind,& never report what is really going on.I try my best to warn people that we could be under many feet of ice & snow in 20 years time but they think I am crazy.

Greetings Hanavrin and welcome aboard. I don't suppose you could tell me where Waddington is? I was looking at some of the UK reports from earlier and they were at 6c (43f).

http://www.climatepatrol.com/stations/EGXW/1180414200/

Oh heck with that one. I just found the overnight temp at London / Heathrow. It was 4c or 39f. Amazing.

http://www.climatepatrol.com/stations/EGLL/1180412400/

How can this not be huge news??? We have documented, and quite well what is going on. AND NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT!!!

Welcome aboard Hanavrin!!! Enjoy the ride....it is going to get interesting.

This is exciting stuff! we're living on the cusp of so many potential disasters!

A Brit aquaintanence a couple of years ago assured me that the Gulf Stream was unstoppable. It would flow unchanged for all eternity. Even then research was showing that it was slowing. He laughed. What did I do with his postal address?...

On a personal note, this explains why our prolonged drought in Texas has ended and my lettuce is rotting. Powdery mildew on squash? Problems with overwatering? This does not happen here!

It's 75f or 23.8C, and scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast. Typically, it should be dry and hot by now.

This is very rare weather for the D/FW metroplex.

Looking at my local weather forecast is making me feel weird.

This is not right. It should be dry and hot.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/driving/interstate/tenday/75060?from=36hr_topnav_driving

There is a buoy at the North tip of England and One at the southern tip.

Those are the two crucial ones. When there water temepratures drop coupled with any reduction in current speed. The ice age commences immediately for Europe.

Judging by curent temperatures, we may already be there.

By the way, 20 years it will not take to shifit more like 20 days.

The northern temp was around 50 degrees farenheit 3-4 years ago as I recall. I can not find the links to them.

Could you post the link to that paticular set of pictures please. I would like to asdd to my list at http://no1stcostlist.com/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=17

My reading of the GS is that it has effectively stopped. Take a look at this 50 KM world temperature map and the Blue area about 3/4 across Atlantic. More pronounced day before yesterday. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km5000.gif

By mid July the s--- will have really hit the fan.

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-070513.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Hi everyone,
I've been reading this thread with interest and thought the above 2 links might be interesting. The first is the temperature anomaly for the N Atlantic a couple of weeks ago. As you can see there's plenty of warm water in the N Atlantic and towards the UK. The second link shows the anomalies as of today.

It looks as though there has been a rapid cooling of sea surface temperatures - but what's really interesting is that the cooling is focused on the exact areas where the NAD runs off from the Gulf Stream. This would be consistent with more energy going into the GS's southern arm. Some of the cooling might relate to surface mixing since we've had a fair amount of low pressure the last month - although it's chicken and egg, the cooling could have helped promote the trough we've seen over the UK through May.

If the cooling continues at the same pace (the sea is not significantly cold around the UK at the moment) then I'll get ready to unpack the sledge.

Incidentally the weather over the weekend was exceptionally cold and wet for the time of year, however it was just one weekend and the average temperature for this May is still running above the long term average - what will be really exciting is if we get a repeat within a week or so.

Ben,

Reigate, Surrey, England

Thanks for the links Snowforeceone. I edited one of the images in your links to show where the above normal water temps are in the Atlantic (north of the equator). It was easier to outline the above normal temps (in white) since there was so little of it. The lightest shade of blue outside of the white line represents normal. Any shade darker represents below normal which I'd guess amounts to 2/3rds of the Atlantic (again north of the equator).

Greetings from Ireland ,
Since everyone else was joining i thought i may aswell .
I have been keeping an eye on this thread and that sst site posted above, and they haven't been above average the whole time, certainly is unusual anyway. It was freezing out there today, it fell to -0.3C in Birr in central Ireland last night but it has been colder before. It snowed across Southern England in July 75. Personally i'd love to see the GS stop but i guess that's a little selfish. It'll be interesting to see if it can sort itself out again or if it'll properly shutdown. Is that likely or would it be more likely to slowdown, or does anybody even know?

The guys at abovetopsecret.com are talking about it: http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread282514/pg1

Other than that, not a thing out there....

Hey Trogdor. Greetings from the U.S. If I had to guess I'd say it would stop at first and eventually find a weakness and go that route which may be south down the middle of the Atlantic or east from Georgia in the U.S. to somewhere near Spain or who knows. I don't think the ocean currents will simply stop for a period of time. I think they will eventually change path after a temporary stoppage.

Welcome trogdor!

Unless someone can prove they predicted this, then I think its safe to say that no one can be sure how it will turn out.

I'll bet you a virtual pint of Guinness it restarts by July.

Not that I have a clue, but it seems like as good reason to gamble free virtual pints, as anything.

welcome trogdor !

we really are *just* coming to understand the Gulf Stream and
its importance... but yes - it does seem to be faltering.

peace,
DanG

I am partial to a Danish beer called Carlsberg :-)

Temp at that bouy back up to 50F this morning....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44011

Looks like it went from 45.9F to 50F in 1 hour.

Indy Waddington is about 40 km from me about 40k inland in Lancashire, north west England.
Last night it was reported on BBC weather that the temps could drop to -1 during the night & the weather forecaster skipped over it like it was completely natural to be -1 & frosty near the start of June
We have gone from the hottest April ever to possibly the coldest May.
I do not think for a minute it will take 20 years but when the scientists say 50-100 years ,first I laugh ,then when I have composed myself , I always halve the lowest estimate then take another 20% off for a more realistic timeframe

5 years - IF we're lucky.

Glasgow seems warm enough now.

http://uk.weather.com/weather/local/UKXX0061?from=smartlinks

http://uk.weather.com/weather/climatology/UKXX0061.htm?dayofyear=145

slightly below average - but nothing out of the ordinary. We'll need to see the current situation (no pun intended) maintained for another couple of weeks to really impact on the Sea Temps (since they started from a high base). If that happens temperatures over W Europe would start to be impacted.

Here in North Central Texas, its 65f or 18.3C, the day before June. This is definitely below normal.

You've sent all your heat to the South. 90F, bright sun, dry as a bone....

Attention Visitors

If you are visiting from Europe I would love to hear your views on this subject. Please share your weather stories from the past week. How bad has this cold been in your area? Do you see reports on tv or read reports in the local papers about problems with the gulf stream/Atlantic current?

Your comments are greatly appreciated.

Sea water density depends on temperature and salinity...
and the Canadian / Greenland melt is pumping huge amounts of
Cold - Fresh water into the North Atlantic.

Hi. This is my first post here, but I have been reading things on this site and others for probably a year or so. Like many of you here, I am convinced we are in interesting times.

I wanted to comment on the media not covering the Gulf Stream disruption.
I think the thing to do is to be aggressive in asking for coverage. E-mail journalists who have written stories on this topic before and tell them your observations and direct them to this website or others. It's likely they are not following this topic as closely as you are and unless someone brings it to their attention, it will pass unnoticed.


Also, see the url below for information on scientists who are skeptical of the Gulf Stream providing warming. I am not sure what I think of this, but thought I would point out that there isn't universal agreement on the Gulf Stream's role in climate.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2006/10/03/overturning-the-gulf-stream-myth/

glad to hear from you Kate, thanks for the post!

Hey Kate. Glad to have you here. I was reading the article and there are some comments I want to make.

1) I put no faith in anything that Gore says.

2) I in no way believe things will unfold as portrayed in The Day After Tomorrow. It was after all just a movie.

3) Maybe I am reading the article wrong but there is proof to support the operation of the Gulf Stream. There is data collected from buoys, ships, subs and satellites.

There isn't a big data set going back thousands of years to say what the current looked like at that time but the flow of the current now can be watched closely. I don't think the currents around the world will just stop. At least not for anything longer than maybe a few days or a week. I think the most likely scenario will be a change in where the currents flow.

One thing people should know by now is that the oceans rule all. Just look at what el nino does to the planet. A strong el nino can cause major climate disruptions. Why wouldn't a disruption in the Gulf Stream? It is without a doubt a huge player when it comes to Europe.

But in any case I think we shall see sooner rather than later.

BTW when you post links on here you don't have to use the url tag. The forum will automatically recognize the link.

Well, if todays Sat thermal map is an indicator, it looks like the G.S. is starting up again. But, there seems no doubt that is was down, or at best running on "low" for the last few weeks. Even AccuWeather (which I believe pretty conservative) made mention of cold water out over the Gulf Stream [although I had to look hard and finally found it on the Canadian page]. Scroll down to the part about Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&blog=anderson

Anyway, here is todays (5/30/07) Atlantic Surface Temps:

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

I would agree about it starting up again. It looks completely different than it did a month ago.

Okay another view from Europe.

Firstly there is only occasional mention in the press over here regarding a slowdown or shutdown of the North Atlantic Drift. My understanding is that the Gulf Stream flowing from Florida to the Eastern Atlantic won't shut down, although it could slow down and be redirected. The North Atlantic drift which is basically the northern arm of the GS as it splits on the E Atlantic could shut down - and it's this part that can make all the difference. The younger dryas period is one occasion where it's believed to have shut down for around 1000 years.

If we lost the NAD at this time the effect would be major since in winter the sea is likely to freeze between Scandinavia and Iceland to the North of the UK (down the North Sea too). On the other side of the atlantic the sea would freeze further South and substantially further East out into the Atlantic. Sea Ice insulates the air above from the relatively warm Sea beneath - allowing the air to cool further than it would otherwise. The result is that colder air masses would be able to develop over the Canadian maritime (and interior) and these air masses would bring snow to W Europe during Winter due to the reduced sea crossing (more ice) and colder source (at the moment a westerly wind brings rain to W Europe 99% of the time). Summers would also cool due to reduced Sea Surface Temperatures and increased solar energy required to melt laying snow during the Spring (it's quite possible that Scotland and Scandinavia would in fact start to glaciate - as might the Hudson Bay area).

There are other feedback effects though - the cooler waters on the E Atlantic and ice pack would force the jet stream further South making Easterly winds from Russia more common during Winter - and of course there would be a huge increase in the earth's albedo triggering a further drop in temperature. Additionally cooler air holds less water vapour, the biggest greenhouse gas, so it would reduce the effect of any greenhouse warming. Furthermore cooler seas will absorb more CO2 (hence CO tends to lag climatic change in past records).

Anyone that seriously believes a shut-down in the NAD wouldn't have an impact is living in cloud cuckoo land - even the Hadley centre in the UK (one of the main pushers of climate change) believe a shutdown would have big impacts should it occur within the next 30 years (set against their models showing warming).

The other possibility is a gentle slowdown in the current - which might be outweighed by climate change from Greenhouse gases (assuming that is the reason we are currently warming).

My own view is that chaotic systems rarely simply slowdown a little bit, but funnily enough tend to react 'chaotically' - so I would say a shutdown or dramatic slowdown are more likely - but predicting when is anyone's guess. The more it stutters though the more worries we ought to be.

great post snowforceone - thanks!

It looks alot more healthy in that latest pic anyway, it's funny how it can look so scattered like its falling apart and then suddenly be back to normal again. I supose it works in reverse aswell though, could be all over the place again in the next pic

Here is a resource I had completely forgotten about.

Atlantic SST

Main Site: http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

Latest Image:
Original Image: www.oceanweather.com

This thread shows SST images from July of 2004. This was the same year the current halted. This set of images was certainly unique.

http://www.climatepatrol.com/forum/13/15/pg1/index.php

http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2609305.ece

It explains the stopping of the GS. This data has been out there, apparantly it takes a while to register because our well paid climate scientists are not watching day to day. e.g. DEOS pictures showing GS turning South yet no mention anywhere else but here and the no1stcostlist.com

Is the disruption in the current possibly returning?

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

Yeah, I've been watching it closely ... there is this big low pressure zone out there that's been hovering east of the southern bleed-off thats been there for over 7 days ... very strange. I have no idea of whats going on ... just a feeling that SOMETHING is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

How about this?

http://www.costarricense.cr/pagina/fvitoria/hurricanes.html

Whoa ... now this *is* strange ... take a look and todays thermal map ...

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

Then look at yesterdays:

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

Notice how the gulf stream narrows down as soon as the bridge occurs on that southern branch? Look at the way the gulf stream surface temps drop out there ... AMAZING!

And this low pressure area hovering out there ... for the last *7* days in the SAME SPOT. Now isn't that a little bit weird?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

Has to make you wonder WHAT'S doing on??

is something lurking out there?

Is it possible to get these daily images in some sort of loop? Be great to see daily differences.

200 Day Loop

I love you

The cold anomaly on these charts never went away http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/

I had thought the northern arm of the GS was starting to recover, but is it me, or is it starting to weaken again?

This is related to the GS slowdown - signs of a cold winter to come. This could all be part of the natural NAO cycle in the atlantic, then again it might be more.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=135457

The gulf stream continues to have problems.

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

Check out the latest 20 day loop and see how most of the current gets cut off again.

I think this is the 2nd major disruption to the gulf stream in the past 3 months. Keep an eye out for any unusual weather patterns or severe weather reports. I wonder if this big drought along the southeast is the cause or the effect of the current disruption?

Wow, I think I'm actually starting to see the differences, or lack there of, in these.

Hello everyone,
I thank you all for your work. The people are clueless. This was in our local paper this morning.

Dozens of dead, dying seabirds washing ashore:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/content/local_news/epaper/2007/06/19/m1b_tcbirds_0619.html

In addition to the bland way they talk about this ie: "This happens all the time"

The money line is the last line. IMO

Take care guys, great work,
f3

thanks - and welcome Triple F

Sure, it happens all the time. We've entered an era of mass extinctions. That's what is supposed to happen when you kill a planet!

The birds were dehydrated. Of course they were. Where are they going to get fresh water in Florida?

Hello,
I clicked on the above link I provided and wouldn't you know they have already moved the story. I have relocated it here:


Dozens of dead, dying seabirds washing ashore


By JILL TAYLOR

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/content/local_news/epaper/2007/06/19/m1b_tcbirds_0619.html

For posterity sake I will post the last 2 lines in this article.

Marine Safety Capt. Bruce Shaw said he's seen a number of massive bird deaths over the years. (f3 writes:I have lived here many years and have not heard of this)

"I think it kind of comes into a combination of wind direction and swell that brings them in. If they were out in the Gulf Stream, they would be pulled north," Shaw said.


If there was a "functioning" Gulfstream.
If administration would like to post entire article, that might be the way to go. Not my board, your decision. Thanks for your indulgence.
f3

"Measure twice cut once"

I guess the link works. I only clicked on it once and it said it wasn't available. I clicked on it again After I posted most recent, voila it showed. Next time I will check twice and post once
f3

Hey Wease,
you wrote,
'The birds were dehydrated. Of course they were. Where are they going to get fresh water in Florida?"

They(Loco Guvmint) are pouring treated sewage water into the wellfields to recharge the drinking water wells. The birds are just going to have to drink comingled sewage water like the people of West Palm.
f3

Doh!

Treated sewage to recharge the drinking water wells? Well thats refreshing.

just had some friends move to west palm beach...gonna hold off on the visit now

Hello everyone,
Hey whats goin on? Europe's in chaos:

http://www.france24.com/france24Public/en/administration/afp-news.html?id=070627125231.nmpkce3e&cat=null

Why? Is this Gulf Stream Problems?
what happened to updated maps?
More questions than answers. I haven't got a clue. This is early, 2003 heatwave hit in August.

Hello,
Maps are on home page. I bookmarked this page. my mistake(i said i didn't have a clue javascript:emoticon('')
.
In any of the observers eye, How does the G.S. look? Compared to early 03?
f3

Paris looks good: http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/07157.html

~18-20C for highs.

Same for Berlin:
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/10389.html

Rome is normal:
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/16239.html

~30C for highs

Now Athens, Greece is indeed hot, but they are normally ~32C this time of year. http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/16716.html

Looks like relief is a day or two away

I dunno. Local anamoly? Everywhere else looks OK.

Look at this July 19, 2004 image and compare it to an image from yesterday.

I know there is still three weeks to go but it looks like the SST temps from this year are far behind 2004.

June 26, 2007 attached below.

Should be a very mild hurricane season...they were wrong again?????????

Hello,
This is 03 map
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/sst/wksst.20030618.gif
recent map:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/ani-weekly.html


Does anyone know at what point GS is optimal. IE: what does it look like healthy at this time, season wise. What year? Does that ? make sense?
thanks,
f3

Hello,
What does NOAA think?
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/may/may07.html


f3

the Gulf sure ain't cool, 85 degrees which is normal for June.

Here is the July 3rd, 2007 image from http://www.oceanweather.com . There isn't much difference from a week ago.

Brett Anderson on AccuWeather posted this today:

"Check out the latest AccuWeather.com Professional Sea Surface Anomaly chart of the North Atlantic below..."

Original Image: vortex.accuweather.com

"The biggest thing that sticks out is the warm anomalies surrounding Atlantic Canada. Parts of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Atlantic waters east of Newfoundland are between 3 and 4 degrees celsius (5-7 F) above normal! Much of Atlantic Canada has been unseasonably cool, cloudy and damp over the past few months, so why are the sea surface temperatures so far above normal? Certainly a tough question, and I suspect there is more than one reason. Without really studying the situation (I just do not have the time) I suspect that a fairly persistent east to southeasterly wind over the past month, which is a cloudy, wet direction in this region, has brought warmer surface water from the Gulf Stream northwestward into these areas. If this region ever gets into a more consistent and drier westerly flow, then we should start to see a trend back toward normal. I have to believe that this is having an impact on the fishing industry along Atlantic Canada."

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=anderson

My personal take on this is a little different. I believe the North Atlantic is warmer than usual BECAUSE the gulf stream has slowed down. Remember these are surface deviations from the norm ... the summertime reaction to a stall would be surface warming. And, of course, the reaction in the European weather would be heavy rain ... ta-da ... record floods all all over Europe!

Also we might note that Greenland is getting some very warm temps right now ... good for melting of some of that nasty ice they have up there.

http://www.getaforecast.com/weatherpix-seatemp.htm

Strange thing is that the AccuWeather SST anomaly map doesn't really match the one from Unisys.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

So which one is right?

The Unisys sst anomaly map seems to jive more with the Ocean Weather SST map. I am not sure where AccuWeather is getting their information at.

Here is the latest SST image from http://www.oceanweather.com

Again compare that image to the July 29, 2004 image. The two don't even come close to comparing.

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

Look at this global SST map.

Source: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

The fresh water runoff should be pretty easy to spot. Also note how cold much of the Atlantic is. See where the current should be?

waay big diff in those SST images

The NOAA report for June will be coming out next Monday and I'm telling you their surface anomoly of the ocean isn't going to look ANYTHING like that unisys picture.

Who's correct?

The OceanWeather image seems to support what the Unisys SST anomaly map shows. The thing we won't know is what years NOAA will choose to use as a reference to normal. But the OceanWeather images show a big difference in water temps since 2004. That is where the real story is since we don't know what NOAA or Unisys use as normal.

NOAA is using a 1961-1990 average as their baseline.

Here's the land map:


Original Image: www.ncdc.noaa.gov


Now, we KNOW Autralia and a significant portion of South America had a very cold June. In fact, I believe parts of Australia are reporting the coldest June ever. I checked the temps for London and they were less than 1F above normal for June, yet the NOAA map has them 2C above normal. Someone is full of shit.

Let see what the report looks like.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Those are the official Central England Temperatures for this year - June was 1c above the 61-90 mean (which is what the UK Met Office use) - so I don't really know where NOAA has come up with the 2c? Satellite data maybe?

Anyway we can see from the CET figures that temperatures in the UK have taken a dip from May of this year - relative to the large anomalies we had seen. July is currently running below average - and based on current computer model output should stay that way.

1961-1990 included the negative phase of the PDO. A bulk of that period was very cold. So it makes everything look above normal on the maps. The data NOAA is now providing is pretty much useless. Why not make it 1950 - 2000? Lets get a more accurate map. So anything that shows as below normal is in reality way below normal. Anything they show as slightly above normal is likely normal or slightly below normal.

^^^I know that and you know that, but John Q. Public is believing that above average is above average.

Let's see what their sea temps look like vs unisys. I predict NOAA will be *WAY* higher than unisys.

Hello,
Hope everyone is well. Hat tip to dissident at theoildrum .com for this link.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere

Does this mean more melting, or less forming? Is there a difference? Speculation on future effect, anyone? Is the Arctic and Greenland the largest impactor of the Gulf stream?
f3

the Greenland and Canadian glaicer melt will impact the GS

Hello,
Wouldn't you know, they had a special on PBS on the whole process, I really learned alot.

http://www.pbs.org/saf/1505/features/lia.htm?campaign=pbshomefeatures_4_alanaldainscientificamericanfrontiers_2007-07-20

enjoy
f3

That was a very good aticle!

Hello,
After watching the pbs program and then reading this:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/weather/Story/0%2C%2C2131580%2C00.html

I know I am no expert but... it seems to be playing out like the program described. I would suggest it is to late for mitigation and we will just have to tough it out, survival of the fittest and that sort of rot, eh?
in addition to the pbs article there is a video that is quite good.
can we say "oh shit"! boys and girls?
f3

I had the strangest dream two nights ago. It was a very vivid dream. I was at my father’s house in South Seattle, there was a blanket of snow, a good dusting, and everything was white. The thing was, in my dream, it was July, and we we're freaked out by a "storm" that looked more like thick volcanic ash, coming down the road. While I'm not convinced we’ll see "Ice age in 2012", the current situation makes me wonder “what if”. I'm notorious for having vivid dreams about what's "bothering" me. I've dreamed about a Bird Flu Pandemic a few times, which I still think is very possible, but have realized, it could fade out, but most likely some kind of pandemic (or other global calamity) will hit us soon enough, we're due for it. However, a little Ice age or worse is far more concerning, as a pandemic usually goes away in a couple years.

There were a few odd things about the dream. My dad is pretty "green", but the more links I send him (largely thanks to Robert Felix, Matt Drudge, RSS, Google News, and this site), the more he's agreeing, "the probability is high, that the man-made global warming is overstated, and the effect is insignificant compared to what the sun and the earth can do.”

That’s all paraphrased, but we’ve had lengthy discussions about this, so I know his view. He’s way more green than me (and I’m fairly green), but agrees something is obviously very wrong with the status quo on the issue of manmade GW.

FWIW, My dad is an amateur radio freak, and had told me the sunspot cycles and the cloudiness were linked years ago, just by his own observations. A lot of this came before global warming was considered a major problem by the news.

Also Seattle is clearly colder, wetter, and much stormier than 2-3 years ago. I used to go camping (2000-2003) all the way up through January before the snow hit, in the mountains, and about 2-3 years ago, I'd be lucky to make it through early October! In the Early nineties, when I was a teen, the heat in the summer would 95-99 for weeks on end, last summer we had a few days greater than 90, about a 3 week "summer" all said and told, and lots of 67-74 degree overcast August days. The increased cloudiness is very obvious, as we used to have (1996-2003) lots of clear days, but not so much anymore, more like when I was a kid, and to my dad, more like the 60's when he was as teen, cold, cloudy, and very stormy. Since 2006 we've gotten at most 3 or 4 good snows, and some winters barely a dusting. Last winter we got some hardcore snow and cold. My fiancee is from Boise, and the snow we've getting is freaking here out, since she hasn't dealt with it for years. We haven't had very good weather in a couple years, for more than a few days. Even the parts of the mountains in Eastern Washington east of Snoqualmie and Stevens passes, which we’re usually very arid we’re snowed out longer, and more green year round.

Also, in the parts of the central cascades I visit, my long time stomping grounds, the glaciers are clearing advancing, the snows lasting longer, and starting earlier than I remember my entire adult life, since the mid 1990's when I first started hiking, biking, and heavily. I went camping in some form almost every weekend from March of 1996 to August 2005 when I met my Fiancee and had a hiking injury to right foot that has limited my hiking (but not biking). And we still go out every 2-3 weekend!! I'm as familiar with seasonal weather as anyone here, especially mountain weather. That’s said it’s humid and wet right now, like I assume a lot of the country is, much more humid than (surprisingly) normal. Seattle rains often, but not that much at one time.

OK, there, it's winded. What are all your thoughts? I keep reading iceagenow.com, and independent news reports, and the moisture, not just the last couple weeks, but the last couple years, and the record colds everywhere in the winters, is alarming. A Gulf Stream disruption is even more alarming. I don't like to be an alarmist, but from what I'm reading, a lot of the the TOP climatologists and solar physicists are predicting an ice age sooner or later. The way I see the data (being somewhat statistics heavy) is a series of sinusoidal (or almost like a pulse) following numerous cycles that eventually form a minimum, when can be worsen by volcanic activity. There are a lot of ups and downs, and apparently sudden shifts. I'm more worried about a Dalton-like or maunder-like (or worse) minimum coming soon than full glaciation. I mean, if that comes, what are you supposed to do?! Might as well have an asteroid hit, nothing you can do. A bad, bad cold snap is very probable, at least based on solar data. The changes in the Gulf Stream are even more concerning, as I'm sure everyone here is aware, a situation eerily similar to right this very second usually precede the onset of the return of continental glaciation. As much as I respect what he's done and is doing, I'd really hate for Robert Felix to turn out to be a prophet.

Here is the apples to apples SST comparison.

July 19, 2004

** EDIT: IMAGE MISSING **

Compare to the image below which is July 24, 2007. Three years difference and the images don't even compare. The 2007 map show much cooler temps covering most of the Atlantic.

I believe the sun affects us in several ways.
After large solar event we almost always see
increases in tectonic and/or weather activity.

I said a while ago...way before hurricane season that if we didnt get any solar flares we wouldnt get any Hurricanes. Also the water temps are cooling back off so any that do form, will be weak.

2003-2005 were bad because of all the massive x class flares we got. It warmed the water up and by 2005 things were in full swing. It is so damn obvious to me what is going on yet nobody will listen to me because I'm not an expert nor do I have a piece of paper from some college claiming I know what I am talking about. Well they can take their papers and shove em where the sun don't shine because they have proven time and again they cannot predict shit. Use my system if you want accurate weather/tectonic/hurricane predictions.

Watch the sun. Watch for sunspots and flares.

remember this one? I made this chart on 5/06

MOST EXCELLENT!

(I wasn't around when you put that up before.)

somewhere on this site is a conversation between FW and I about
the related effects of increased solar output.
It honestly seems that all one has to do is recognize the pattern
and then the truth jumps out at you...

Any updates?

Hello All,
I hope everyone is well. This is latest SST map.
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/NATL-Southern/sst.html

It appears to me, the GS is disconnected. The current and previous hurricanes Felix and Dean seem to have followed that strip of warm water. Anybody care to comment.?
f3

There seems to be little warm water and the storms have been lucky enough to move along what warm water there is. One thing for sure there won't be nearly as much warm water left after Felix. Between Dean and Felix they should upwell quite a bit of cooler water.

Hello All,
I hope everyone is well. This is latest SST map.
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/NATL-Southern/sst.html

It appears to me, the GS is disconnected. The current and previous hurricanes Felix and Dean seem to have followed that strip of warm water. Anybody care to comment.?
f3

Sorry,
Yesterday, when I posted the above, it lagged and lagged and then a storm was upon me, I have satellite so I thought that was the problem. I pray for the people of these coasts and inland areas especially the Miskito indians who have never seen anything like this(Felix).
f3

Hello,
I have posted a few times now and it shows waiting for climate patrol for a good period without loading, then if I hit stop after a few minutes the post appears in this forum. What am I doing wrong?
f3

Its not you...its climatepatrol's ISP.

Hello F.W
Could you translate the data you posted?
f3

LOL, I would have earlier but it took over 2 hours to post. It was not what I wanted to post but the damn thing froze up.


here is the link I was posting from. I was trying to tie Dean and Felix in with Solar flares. I only saw two small ones..subclass flares.

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txt

Damn this thing is messed up. Anyhow, I noticed no Hurricanes heading towards the US this year. I bet none do. The gulf is actually cooling down as well now, and after two F5's down south I doubt we will see anymore unless we have major ass class X solar flare.

Look how much the gulf has cooled, and you can see where the hurricanes tracked. Not much heat and energy left there either.

Why would two F-5 hurracaines turn towards land after going past the Yucatan Peninsula? The Coriolis effect in the Northern hemisphere turns them to the right, plus they have all that warm Gulf water attracting them. Yet left they turned.???
HAARP being used perhaps?

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

Also the arctic ocean is much, much warmer than normal.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/weekly-sst.php

As you can see, the warming has had a massive effect on Ice cover in the arctic this year.

The Gulf Stream has slowed down and it is visibly pooling off of Canada. It has had a spurt over the last six weeks but it is still eddying and poolling off of North America.

The spurt is starting to slow, and I expect to see it reach a new low and curl even more to the South. Some is pushing North along Canadian coast, but the cold labrador going South current pushes back against it.

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/#fig1

As to sudden switch to an Ice Age. All the conditions for one seem to have been met, including poliitcians with their collective heads up where the sun does not shine.

I have lived in Seattle for 65 years. This is the coldest, wettest summer I can remember.

However, no snow in Olympic mountains to the West. We always had snow through the summer until three years ago.

We are in for exciting times.

Hello,
Hope everyone is well. I have been watching the GS as I am sure many have and it has now hooked downward.
please see the following links.

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/#fig1

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/NATL-Southern/sst.html

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=9986

I would appreciate any comments or thoughts on this. It explains a lot of what we see in both the financial and physical realm.

f3

I'm not seeing this downturn you're talking about. It looks pretty stable to me over the last 4 weeks.

Matt, no Southern backflow right now, just a lot of stalled eddys. Its not the last 4 weeks ... its the last 4 months. Take a look at what it looked like at this time 1, 2, or 3 years ago ... that's the really dramatic comparison.

This is March 3, 2008

Original Image: rads.tudelft.nl

This is March 3, 2005

Original Image: rads.tudelft.nl


Lots more current info in this thread ...
http://www.climatepatrol.com/forum/21/2993/pg1/index.php

But, there is no question that the whole ecosphere has cooled this year, not just the North Atlantic. I have to agree with Indy and Fatal here ... something else is going on. I just personally haven't seen the cause, yet ...


Original Image: weather.unisys.com

...the whole ecosphere has cooled this year...

yes, and if this summer is below avg temp wise, I'd be
very concerned about the following winter.

Dan, I agree, it looks pretty bad (can you say D.A.T.?). The cooler than average water is everywhere, even in the Southern hemisphere during summer. I don't see it getting out of this trend over the next 6 months ... something has TIPPED the Tipping Point... BIG TIME.

Think it could be as simple as a phase shift in the PDO? We're due for it to go negative for 30ish years....

Hello,
When I look at the SST map I see hooks. When I look at the current velocities I see alot of energy spinning off the coast. That energy and warm water is not going to release further North as it has done for centuries. If you have patience you can load the animated current velocities for the last five years. Nothing even close has occurred like this. The Davos Woodshole report I linked above surmised this would happen. Interesting, no?
As a financial aside all the paper the central banks have been pumping into the system coincides fairly closely to the rise in commodity prices.
Look up these Davos meetings
f3

Hello,
I don't mean to be a pest , what is happening in the gulfstream?

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/#fig1

Is this the southern backflow Avastar was referencing?
Looks to me more arrows pointing down then up.


Thank you
f3

"Nothing to see here, move along, its all under control."

I know it probably isn't but it almost looks like a split flow.

Hey f3,

Yes, from the looks of the SST thermals this is what's already happened (you can see the southernly flow below in the NOAA map). The DEOS data is always a week late. The Gulf Stream has not recovered one bit since going berserk last November. This looks to be a long term disruption and may indicate some serious slowing ...


Original Image: rads.tudelft.nl


Original Image: www.ssd.noaa.gov

Hello,
Thank you for responding and the noaa map. I live on the sotheast coast of florida, would something like this increase east coast hurricane possibilities? Been thru 3 eyes I was hoping for at least five years to recover. Whats the techno fix for this?
f3


"Move along, nothing to see here. Everything is under control"

Well, I'm no climatologist, but two things can happen.

a) The Gulf stalling builds up more warm water on the East coast, feeding any storms that brew up this summer ... making things worse.

b) The whole circulatory system of the Atlantic slows down creating pools of warmer water all over the place ... perhaps preventing hurricane buildup in the first place.

But, hey, who knows what will happen ... no one has seen this for 10,000 years.

what's going on now with the Gulf Stream?

It's almost back to normal. Why do you ask?

FYI the website is: http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/


Original Image: rads.tudelft.nl

We haven't talked about this one in ages. The beyond 60W the current looks rather weak. Keep in mind this image represents the movement of water relative to the ground and not the water around it. A few years ago the data was based on the movement of the water relative to the water around it.

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/

Fresh water influx from Greenland ... it's 2-3c warmer up there than anything measured before.


Original Image: www.cdc.noaa.gov


It's only a matter of time ...

talk about a 'perfect storm' ... after months of below normal solar output,
if the Atlantic Current shuts off now...

that just means the storms from the north will contain more moisture...and im not against that.

Is this perhaps another disruption in the gulf stream?

Image source: http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/

It sure looks like it's weakening again. Yikes.

IF I were living in the northeast, I'd be collecting fireword Now.

It looks like the disruptions in the gulf stream continue. This isn't a critical stoppage but clearly a disruption. Between this and a deep solar minimum what kind of effect will it have on Europe this winter?

Source: http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/

Bad winter in old England *and* New England

I noticed temps in Germany where my mom lives are way below normal.

I think we are about to have a real winter to go along with our real recession.

It's very cold (dec/jan temps) in the UK currently. There's been snow, hail, lightning, rain, and wind...At least that's what I've heard from people living there and from the weather stations there. I don't have a news report on it though.

London is currently 36F with light rain.

Temps in other areas in England are hovering around 30-32F.

BTW - if you google "gulf stream disruption"
this thread is # ONE

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=%22gulf+stream+disruption%22

Things sure look different than they did when this thread was started.

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

And here....there is no doubt that the gulf stream had shut down earlier when this thread was started. Now with a solar minimum, It will be interesting to monitor temps across the globe. I wonder what would happen if we had a solar minimum and no gulf stream?

Britain would be an ice cube?

http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/

I wonder what would happen if we had a solar minimum and no gulf stream?

Britain would be an ice cube?

1. find a Globe
2. place a finger on Britain
3. spin Globe from East to West
4. note that finger is now in Canada
5. speculate

Looks like it's churning away

Fatal.. the SST observation is about the only useful info on the gulf stream. The image before that is pretty much useless now. I don't really even refer to it anymore. A few years back they changed their modeling from relative values to absolute values. My impression is that relative values show the movement of water relative to the surrounding waters. That is how you could identify the gulf stream. Now they model it based on zero so it is the movement of water relative to the ground. Oceans in general circulate if even just a little. So what they are showing us is where the gulf stream should be and how fast water is moving in that area NOT where the gulf stream is and how fast the river of water is running within the larger body of water.