| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 131454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007 ...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
This is the storm the models have been hinting at for a few days now. The earliest indications are that this storm could post a threat to land. Of course it is far too early to say for sure but this one must be watched closely.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141433 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007 ...DEAN FORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES... INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES...1660 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...11.7 N...39.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
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No no no!!! I need Florida to take one up the ass so I can get some rain on my lawn!!!!
The models have shifted back south again. So who knows. But it looks as if the storm will strengthen significantly.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 150247 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007 ...DEAN A LITTLE STRONGER... INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1295 MILES...2085 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...42.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Quote From Source: |
| Shell has become the first oil and gas major to close down part of its operations in the Gulf of Mexico amid escalating fears that the first hurricane of the season could tear through the region at the end of the week. World oil prices rose again today, with US crude 36 cents higher at $72.74, as Tropical Storm Dean approached the Caribbean. Experts believe that it could develop into a hurricane within three days. US oil prices rose 1 per cent yesterday, the biggest one-day gain for two weeks. |
| Click source url to view entire story. |
*snicker*
I told peeps yesterday, it would pass south of Cuber and into the Gulf.
| Quoting DanG - posted on 8/15/2007 at 07:13 |
*snicker* I told peeps yesterday, it would pass south of Cuber and into the Gulf. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 151457 RRA TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9...RETRANSMITTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007 ...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045 MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW. DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...46.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 152032 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007 ...DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910 MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR... AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...47.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007 ...DEAN STRENGTHENS...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES... AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 625 MILES...1005 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE DEAN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...50.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
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Dean becomes the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160913 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007 ...CORRECTED WARNINGS... ...DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE... GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES... 780 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 590 MILES...950 KM...EAST OF MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...52.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Quote From Source: |
| ORLANDO, Fla. -- The latest projected path of movement for Hurricane Dean jogged the system farther south away from Florida and toward the Yucatan as it grows into a massive Category 4 storm. "It is going to be a huge, huge dangerous and violent storm before it is over," Local 6 meteorologist Tom Sorrells said. The system gained strength early Thursday and was expected to continue to grow into a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 120 mph by Monday. It should be located just south of Cuba. "Once it hits that Lesser Antilles and the deep Caribbean, it really hits the warm water," Sorrells said. "It is the warmest water on the planet. It is waiting on it to feed on and grow as it approaches Mexico." |
| Click source url to view entire story. |
Latest Track
There is a chance this storm squeaks in between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba and enters the very warm gulf untouched. And the big difference between this storm and Katrina, Rita and Wilma is that it will pass over waters untouched by any other storm.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 161443 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007 ...DEAN INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE... GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 AM AST...THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...EAST OF MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...54.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Quoting Indy - posted on 8/16/2007 at 12:09 |
There is a chance this storm squeaks in between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba and enters the very warm gulf untouched. And the big difference between this storm and Katrina, Rita and Wilma is that it will pass over waters untouched by any other storm. |
Wow look at this. It is looking like a buzz saw. This storm is well on its way to a cat 3.
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/cb/wwh81khlgqj3rbmoyngeq3qg20cp708r.jpg[/bad img]
Look at this Dvorak image. The storm is building that well defined donut around the eye. However that core is still rather small.
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/cd/hojuxq18k9bp75frvewwbos382smamfs.jpg[/bad img]
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 162031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007 ...HURRICANE DEAN RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 100 MPH WINDS... AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM... EAST OF MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040...THE FRENCH BUOY 41101 AND A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...56.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
Here is the latest forecast path for Dean. It looks like Jamaica will get a direct hit.
GFDL has Dean going into the Gulf of Mexico with a pressure of 913mb and winds of 155kts. 155kts is 178mph. And honestly with the water temperatures in the area that is quite possible. Fortunately the water along the coast isn't quite as favorable to maintain that kind of intensity. You may again have a system approaching the coast as a strong cat 5 and weaken to 130mph by landfall.
Hrmmm.....last time they evacuated Houston it was a joke. I hope to hell they have a better plan in place. Perhaps people should think about leaving now?
It may seem to early but when they run out of gas sitting in a traffic jam, its pretty sad. Took many over 12 hours to go 50 miles north when Rita landed.
Lets have a little contest. I'll give until noon Saturday (eastern time) for people to post their predictions of where the eye will make landfall. The person that comes the closest wins. :-)
| Quoting Indy - posted on 8/16/2007 at 18:27 |
Lets have a little contest. I'll give until noon Saturday (eastern time) for people to post their predictions of where the eye will make landfall. The person that comes the closest wins. :-) |
eh - non U.S.
if it misses the Yucatan it might make south TX.
Well Now that it is a Cat 2 I wonder how long it will take to get to a Cat 3
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 162355 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007 ...OUTER BANDS OF DEAN MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA...MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...EAST OF MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN ST. LUCIA IN ONE OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF DEAN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...57.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 URNT12 KNHC 161811 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 16/17:33:00Z B. 13 deg 49 min N 055 deg 27 min W C. NA mb 2877 m D. 78 kt E. 323 deg 005 nm F. 044 deg 075 kt G. 315 deg 006 nm H. 974 mb I. 14 C/ 3051 m J. 19 C/ 3069 m K. 7 C/ NA L. OPEN W M. E350/16/10 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 0104A DEAN OB 05 MAX FL WIND 75 KT NW QUAD 17:30:40 Z MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 320 / 6NM |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
When it drops another 92mb...I'll be impressed 
Wilma was just too bad a$$ and I don't know If I will live long enough to see 882mb beaten. Ya never know though.
| Quoting Indy - posted on 8/16/2007 at 19:25 | |||
This is the vortext data message for Dean. Note the 974 mb low. |
Honestly I didn't think the storm looked all that impressive in the last hour or two.
Also I'm not sure how old that message is. It is possible it was from earlier today. Actually that report may be several hours old.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 170249 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007 ...DEAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE... DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION. AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT... ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM... NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.1 N...58.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
This comes from the 11pm NHC discussion.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON THE EARLIER AIR FORCE FLIGHT RECORDED A PEAK SURFACE WIND OF 88 KT AROUND 19Z IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE WIND IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT STRUCTURAL TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT. COMMUNICATIONS DIFFICULTIES DURING THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION PREVENTED MUCH OF THE DATA FROM GETTING TO US...BUT DROPSONDE DATA CALLED IN AFTERWARD BY THE CREW INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED... ABOUT 976 MB. |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Quote From Source: |
| MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Dean uprooted trees, tore down power lines and ripped the roof off a hospital in St. Lucia on Friday as it raced into the Caribbean on a track that could take it near Jamaica as a dangerously powerful storm next week, officials said. On the nearby French island of Martinique, sustained winds were measured at 75 mph (120 kph) with gusts up to 105 mph (170 kph), according to France's weather service. Dean reached the Caribbean Sea through the narrow St. Lucia Channel after a long journey across the Atlantic and threatened to become a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale in the area of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula in four days. |
| Click source url to view entire story. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| Hurricane DEAN Public Advisory -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive US Watch/Warning -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 000 WTNT34 KNHC 171139 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE... DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT... ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR 50 MILES...80 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MARTINIQUE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 87 MPH...143 KM/HR...WHILE DOMINICA REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| Hurricane DEAN Forecast Discussion -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive US Watch/Warning -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170853 TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007 THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DEAN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN EITHER SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IMAGERY FROM THE FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE. THERE ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A RAGGED EYE ON RADAR...AND THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN AT BEST ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR WITH DEAN REMAINING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE SEEMINGLY RESPONDED TO THE G-IV JET MISSION BY SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF DEAN...WITH A MOTION THAT IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT FROM 12-72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DEAN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS NOW CALL FOR DEAN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF...WHILE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT COULD REMAIN STRONGER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.3N 60.9W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W 90 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W 95 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W 105 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W 115 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W 120 KT 96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 125 KT = 144.0 MPH 120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
Looks like crap this morning...
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/fb/k0opgvzb29ppcl4r0rnvq485xvfpvoiw.jpg[/bad img]
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 171457 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA... AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES... 170 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP DEAN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
This reminds me so much of Katrina. Each model run is slowly shifting the path to the right. Some of the models have it shifted much closer now to Galveston.
| Quoting Indy - posted on 8/17/2007 at 11:19 |
This reminds me so much of Katrina. Each model run is slowly shifting the path to the right. Some of the models have it shifted much closer now to Galveston. |
And Here is Rita's track...although it is much farther North...
THis is why I say Dean will hit mid Texas..it is much further South of Rita. I'm thinking Corpus Kristi at this point, but it is too soon to tell. Once it gets in the gulf it will turn north, than NE...at what point it does this is hard to say. At that point we will get a much better idea of where it will land.
The closest path I can find to Dean is Gilbert in 1988. The second most powerful Atlantic storm at 888 mb and peak sustained winds at 185mph at its strongest point.
Now either Dean will follow Gilberts path or turn North. If it does, then Texas is going to be the target.
So far Dean is a spitting image of Gilbert as far as the track goes. Dean is a month Earlier being it is currently August and Gilbert was in September.
I say Katrina because I believe in the earlier model runs it was forecast to hit a particular location but each subsequent run moved it closer and closer to New Orleans. The actual path does mimic Gilbert. With Gilbert the models wanted to turn the storm north but it didn't comply. Lets see if this plays out like Gilbert and stays on the same path the entire time or whether it acts like Katrina and the path shifts further and further with each model run.
Here is the latest Dvorak images. This to me tells the real story of where the hurricane is currently. As impressive as the storm is there is so much potential for further organization. It doesn't have that nice donut around a perfect eye. The center while nasty I am sure has a long way to go. When this thing gets that donut watch out. It will get ugly fast.
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/26/zquq47uvhezm8xdhe76rh2f1btjydvtx.jpg[/bad img]
I'll take Brownsville Texas.
| Quoting Weaseldog - posted on 8/17/2007 at 12:25 |
I'll take Brownsville Texas. |
| Quoting FatalWishes - posted on 8/17/2007 at 12:40 | ||
LOL, covering all your bases huh? |
You can see the donut forming.
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/80/vrr0s3my14uvbqkckqbewo1emgxpvc9n.jpg[/bad img]
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 171751 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 145 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA... AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 145 PM AST...1745Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THIS TRACK...DEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 145 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
That reminds me. There are donuts in the break room.
Does anyone remember which hurricane went around Jamaica? I think it was a couple of years ago. Actually quite amusing. I think it was either Ivan or Dennis but I can't swear to it.
| Quote From Source: |
| CASTRIES, St. Lucia (AP) - A strengthening Hurricane Dean tore through the eastern Caribbean islands of St. Lucia and Martinique on Friday, ripping the roofs from a hospital and homes, knocking out power, and flooding roads with rain and seawater. A 62-year-old man drowned, in the storm's first death. The first hurricane of the Atlantic season, which grew into a Category 3 on Friday with 125 mph winds, is expected to strengthen over the warm waters of the Caribbean, hit Jamaica on Sunday and climb to Category 4 status before clipping Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. It was projected to steer into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday, threatening the U.S.-Mexico border area. |
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This is interesting. This image comes from http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html .
The GFDL model has dramatically shifted the path east.
| Quoting Indy - posted on 8/17/2007 at 13:03 |
Does anyone remember which hurricane went around Jamaica? I think it was a couple of years ago. Actually quite amusing. I think it was either Ivan or Dennis but I can't swear to it. |
This image should give you a better idea of size. Compare the storm to the size of Florida.
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/42/o2id5n9fd1f7lv4wpurx7s43g1du43df.jpg[/bad img]
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 172042 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES... 1355 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 260 MILES... 415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH DEAN TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
And for the first time. The donut with an eye.
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/97/mscdayyavgwk43kqnfgixvn3y3w39xr4.jpg[/bad img]
If the dates and names were different I'd swear we were looking at Gilbert. Everybody shows it landing where Gilbert did as well. I wished that OWS weather dude would chime in ....I trust his forecasts. I still think Dean is going to turn North sooner than Gilbert did...I'm just not sure when or where. The weather patterns are too hard for me to predict for next week. Erin stirred the shit out of everything. We have been anything but stable here in Texas and in the Gulf.
Only 3 models show Dean hitting the U.S.A. so far. I suppose that is why they are predicting the same track as Gilbert. As soon as Dean hits the gulf, If I lived anywhere between New Orleans and Brownsville Texas within 50 miles of the beach, I'd be ready to evacuate....early.
They said it would get to CAT 4 strength today....looks like it is weakening 
though according to the latest Vortex Data...pressure rose a bit but speeds have picked up a tad. The Northern Quad really picked up. Guess we'll wait until the next Hurrican Hunter checks in. It may make it yet.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 URNT12 KNHC 171740 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 17/17:17:00Z B. 14 deg 46 min N 063 deg 16 min W C. NA mb 2763 m D. 110 kt =126.7 MPH E. 011 deg 010 nm F. 107 deg 124 kt G. 011 deg 011 nm H. 966 mb.. Was 961...maybe the eye is forming? I. 7 C/ 3046 m J. 19 C/ 3040 m K. 9 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C17 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 28 MAX FL WIND 124 KT =142mph N QUAD 17:13:30 Z This has gone way up |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
The eye has opened up and you can now see down to the surface. That is a relatively small eye. I think the small eye will allow for rapid intensification.
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/d3/r25xlwov1onv9kzsj7qrxdvs0v7gthbo.jpg[/bad img]
| Quoting Indy - posted on 8/17/2007 at 17:43 |
The eye has opened up and you can now see down to the surface. That is a relatively small eye. I think the small eye will allow for rapid intensification. |
He is officially a category four storm with sustained winds of 135 mph.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180004 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...CORRECTED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED TO 135 MPH... ...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES... 1290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES... 410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 946 MB...27.93 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
Here is the latest message from hurricane hunters.
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 URNT12 KNHC 180136 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 18/01:15:40Z B. 14 deg 51 min N 065 deg 29 min W C. NA mb 2579 m D. 111 kt E. 044 deg 011 nm F. 136 deg 138 kt G. 044 deg 011 nm H. 936 mb I. 10 C/ 3056 m J. 20 C/ 3047 m K. 008 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. 15 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 09 MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT64 KNHC 180135 TCUAT4 HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 930 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180247 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...CATEGORY FOUR DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN... AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES... 1210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES... 390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY SATURDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
oooh baby
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 URNT12 KNHC 180522 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 18/05:00:30Z B. 14 deg 55 min N 066 deg 26 min W C. 700 mb 2498 m D. 105 kt E. 193 deg 004 nm F. 291 deg 117 kt G. 197 deg 005 nm H. 930 mb I. 12 C/ 3044 m J. 20 C/ 3055 m K. 9 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. C13 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.03 / 2 nm P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 24 MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 154KT AT 05:04:00 Z |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180548 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 200 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR DEAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES... 1125 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES... 390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH... 240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...66.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
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This storm is a thing of beauty.
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/b0/gn75lhwsptuoz5m20ku6dsedsd4zoazf.jpg[/bad img]
Wow it's formed a beautiful eye. What's the projected path?
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 181150 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 800 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007 ...CORE OF HURRICANE DEAN PASSES WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST OR ABOUT 615 MILES... 990 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 250 MILES... 400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND SOUTH OF HAITI TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DEAN COULD HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT REMAINS AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE HURRICANE AND WILL DETERMINE THE INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 42059 RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH....122 KM/HR AS DEAN MOVED NEARBY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...15.4 N...67.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 URNT12 KNHC 181212 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 18/11:51:20Z B. 15 deg 23 min N 067 deg 52 min W C. 700 mb 2437 m D. 121 kt E. 5 deg 008 nm F. 137 deg 145 kt G. 050 deg 008 nm H. 926 mb I. 11 C/ 3049 m J. 23 C/ 3041 m K. 11 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. C12 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 03 MAX FL WIND 145 KT=167mph NE QUAD 11:48:40 Z SMALL HAIL INBOUND NE QUAD RADAR PRESENTATION EXCELLENT |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180833 TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007 NEAR 0500 UTC...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 154 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF DEAN...AND ALSO REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 930 MB. THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED CALLING DEAN A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...DATA FROM DROPSONDES...THE STEPPED- FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES DID NOT SUPPORT THAT STATUS. THE INTENSITY WAS THUS SET TO A SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE 130 KT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DEAN SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT...SO 130 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15...AGAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE. DEAN CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MOVES WESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD JAMAICA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS...WITH THE TRACK DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION. AFTER THAT...UKMET...GFS...AND CONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE GFDL CALLS FOR A MOTION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL YUCATAN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS. SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HR DUE TO INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS ON TOP OF THIS DUE TO DIFFICULT TO TIME EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 15.1N 67.3W 130 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.6N 69.6W 130 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 72.8W 135 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.6N 76.4W 135 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 80.0W 135 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 86.5W 140 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 110 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 24.5N 98.0W 115 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
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Latest Vortex Data
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 URNT12 KNHC 181636 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007 A. 18/16:14:30Z B. 15 deg 46 min N 069 deg 02 min W C. 700 mb 2488 m D. 119 kt E. 018 deg 8 nm F. 113 deg 128 kt G. 018 deg 008 nm H. 930 mb I. 9 C/ 3050 m J. 20 C/ 3046 m K. 11 C/ NA L. OPEN S M. C11 N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 0604A DEAN OB 21 MAX FL WIND 128 KT=147mph N QUAD 16:12:00 Z NORTH EYEWALL HAS DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT34 KNHC 181455 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2007 ...CORRECTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS PARAGRAPH... ...DEAN'S FURY THREATENS HAITI...JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...HEAVY SQUALLS ALREADY APPROACHING HISPANIOLA... AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 565 MILES... 910 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.7 N...68.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE |
| Alert, Advisory, Warning, etc from a government agency. |
| Official Advisory/Bulletin: |
| 000 WTNT44 KNHC 181448 TCDAT4 HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007 AN AIR FORCE PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF DEAN THIS MORNING AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE HAS NOT WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 130 KNOTS. IN FACT...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 924 MB AT AROUND 1200 UTC AND THEN UP TO 929 MB JUST RECENTLY. DEAN WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH EYEWALL CYCLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.7N 68.6W 130 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.0W 130 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 74.3W 135 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 77.8W 125 KT...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA 48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 81.4W 140 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W 100 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 110 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W 50 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
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No change on the 2:00 p.m. update.
Latest Track. If I was in Jamaica...I'd be trying to figure out a way to get out. It looks like it is going to get run over.
Latest IR
[bad img]http://satimg.climatepatrol.com/disk3/e4/tubyib7v7ev5yyyyy7q7pgse0qkcyagd.jpg[/bad img]
Visible
Dean has a very small and very well formed tight eye
Here is the loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
RGB Img
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
The only concern I have about this storm is that while a tiny eye allows for rapid intensification it also makes the storm vulnerable and storms like this tend to collapse. You could actually see a significant drop in intensity over a short period of time almost out of the blue.