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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Source: Posted: 06-01-2007 at 06:00:23
000
ABNT20 KNHC 010909
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...WESTERN CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30TH. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER
OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...
6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY. THE NOAA SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST IS
PROJECTING 13 TO 17 NAMED STORMS...7 TO 10 HURRICANES...AND 3 TO 5
MAJOR HURRICANES DURING 2007.
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2007 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ANDREA LORENZO
BARRY MELISSA
CHANTAL SHAN TAHL- NOEL
DEAN OLGA
ERIN AIR- IN PABLO PA- BLOW
FELIX FEEL- IX REBEKAH
GABRIELLE GA BREE EL- SEBASTIEN SAY BAS- TYAN
HUMBERTO OOM BAIR- TO TANYA TAHN- YA
INGRID VAN
JERRY WENDY
KAREN
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...IS ISSUED FOUR TIMES A
DAY...AT 530 AM...1130 AM...530 PM AND 1030 PM EASTERN TIME. IT
BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...
MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG OR FORMATIVE
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WONT41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF TEXT PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT
INTRODUCED IN 2006...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE
ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR
TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. ALL ADVISORY PACKAGES INCLUDE A SET
OF GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS...INCLUDING WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICS
THAT WERE ALSO INTRODUCED IN 2006.
AN ADDITIONAL TEXT PRODUCT...WITH WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS
FAMILIAR...IS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO NOTIFY USERS OF CHANGES THAT OTHER COUNTRIES
MAKE TO THEIR WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS ALSO SOMETIMES ISSUED TO
ALERT USERS THAT A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE IS ABOUT TO BE
RELEASED. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY
TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADERS WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADERS MIATCUAT1-5.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
THE 2007 SEASON GOT OFF TO AN EARLY START WHEN SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA FORMED DURING MAY. ANDREA ORIGINATED FROM A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD FORMED OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS ON 6 MAY...AND GRADUALLY ACQUIRED SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANDREA BECAME A SUBTROPICAL
STORM WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ON 9 MAY. NORTHERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR CAUSED ANDREA TO WEAKEN
BELOW STORM STRENGTH ON 10 MAY AND TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
ON 11 MAY. THE REMNANT LOW LATER BECAME ABSORBED BY A FRONT ON 14
MAY.
ANDREA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR NO DIRECT DEATHS...ALTHOUGH 5 PEOPLE
DROWNED AS A RESULT OF THE PRECURSOR EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. BEACH
EROSION IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BROWN/KNABB/BLAKE
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